1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, domestic toluene showed a rising trend this week. On January 3, the price of toluene was 3710 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 10), the price was 3810 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 2.69% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price was increased by 100-150 yuan / ton (the price was reduced in some regions). In terms of external market, as of January 8, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 516 US dollars / ton, up 25.5 US dollars / ton or 5.2% compared with December 31; the price of imported toluene from East China was 525 US dollars / ton, up 23.5 US dollars / ton or 4.69% compared with December 31. During the week, the news of crude oil was good, the price rose rapidly, and the price of toluene in the external market also rose widely. The domestic toluene market has a strong speculation mentality, but the demand for TDI, PX and other downstream products is general, and the mentality of following up is cautious.
In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week, and the price of domestic goods was 12666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week. At present, the domestic market is dominated by consolidation and operation, with cautious attitude in the market, weak follow-up in the downstream and inactive trading.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was more stable than last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, down 31.88% year on year. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The terminal demand is general, and PX is mainly purchased on demand. As of January 7, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $676-678 / T FOB Korea and US $694-696 / T CFR China. This week, PX external price trend rose, to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Crude oil, external support is good, toluene is expected to rise next week. However, the domestic downstream demand remained weak, mainly from the rigid demand; the toluene port inventory was high, and it was difficult to consume in the short term, which inhibited the growth of toluene. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.