1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 11 was 9066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 14 was 9833 yuan / ton, with the price rising 8.46% this week.
| PVA |
On May 13, the caprolactam commodity index was 49.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and up 26.37% from the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
2、 Market analysis
Product: caprolactam rose due to tight spot supply. As of May 14, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 10300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10000 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton. The 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.
Industrial chain: this week, the price of raw material pure benzene rose steadily. The price of raw material pure benzene is 3100-3600 yuan / ton. On May 13, North China: Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 3100 yuan / ton; East China: Yangzi Petrochemical Company quoted 3150 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan Refining & chemical company quoted 3150 yuan / ton; Central China: Wuhan ethylene company quoted 3150 yuan / ton; China chemical industry group quoted 3600 yuan / ton. Jingbo petrochemical company quoted 3600 yuan / ton; Dongming Petrochemical Company quoted 3500 yuan / ton; HSBC petrochemical company quoted 3150 yuan / ton; Jincheng petrochemical company quoted 3500 yuan / ton.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 13, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities are chloroform (6.06%), ethylene (5.24%) and isopropanol (4.19%). There are 9 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top 3 products were lithium hydroxide (- 2.34%), propane (- 1.64%) and epichlorohydrin (- 1.62%). The average price of this day is 0.2%.
3、 Future forecast
Caprolactam analysts of the business club believe that the domestic caprolactam spot supply is tight this week, the price continues to rise, the price of raw materials is rising steadily, and the price of caprolactam continues to be high. As part of the enterprise equipment is about to restart, the supply side will ease, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.
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