1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of April 20, the quotation in Henan was about 2150 yuan / ton; in Shandong, it was about 2150-2300 yuan / ton; in Hebei, it was about 2250-2300 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, it was about 2250 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, it was about 2200-2300 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, it was about 2350-2450 yuan / ton; in South China, it was about 2150 yuan / ton The regional delivery quotation is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton, which is 10.82% higher than that on April 7.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2、 Cause analysis
Product: after continuous decline in February and March, the domestic acetic acid market finally ushered in a rebound. There are two main reasons for the rise of acetic acid. One is that the enterprises have successively overhauled or issued corresponding overhaul plans, among which Jiangsu Thorpe’s 1.2 million ton / year plant began to be overhauled on the 20th for 30-40 days, Nanjing Celanese’s 1.2 million ton / year plant planned to be overhauled on the 23rd for more than 30 days, Hebei Jiantao’s 500000 ton / year plant planned to be overhauled on the 5th of May for about 30 days, and Shaanxi’s 300000 ton / year plant planned to be extended Shanghai Huayi 700000t / a plant is planned to be overhauled for more than 30 days on May 8. In addition, Yankuang plant is planned to be overhauled for about 30 days in mid May. Due to the long-term and half negative operation of Yankuang plant, there is a certain tension in the market spot supply. Some enterprises have started to ship in limited quantity in preparation for inventory. Downstream users and traders have a high intention of preparing goods. The market transaction atmosphere is active, and the situation of supply exceeding demand in the industry is extremely strong On the other hand, due to the high price of raw material methanol, and the continuous decline of acetic acid market, the ex factory price of acetic acid has fallen to the vicinity of the cost line. In order to reduce the storage pressure, some enterprises in East China even made losses and shipments, and the intention of enterprises to hold up prices is strong.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol market is operating at a high price, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high. The surrounding market is actively pushing up, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair. At present, about 1775 yuan / ton is available. The domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries have strong resistance to high prices due to the terminal market, and the price starts to decline after the continuous rise, and the overall demand of the downstream industry is still weak. PTA market has a narrow range Fall, the spot market negotiations are weak, weak demand side on PTA market support negative.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
International: affected by the global health events, the international acetic acid price continues to decline, and the export end has insufficient support for the domestic acetic acid price. At present, the acetic acid Market in North America is about 485 US dollars / ton; the Asian market is about 250-300 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid market is about 570 euros / ton.
3、 Future forecast
According to the acetic acid analyst of the business agency, affected by the centralized maintenance of the later stage devices, the arrival expectation of the enterprise has dropped significantly, the overall inventory of the market is at a low level, and the situation of supply exceeding demand has been effectively alleviated. The downstream market is dominated by rigid purchase and demand, the buying intention of the industry is gradually increasing, and the trading atmosphere is active. It is expected that the acetic acid price market will run well in a short time.
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