1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2155 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1985 yuan / ton, down 7.89% in the week. The price fell 11.88% on a month on month basis, down 10.67% on a year-on-year basis.
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2、 Market analysis
Products: due to the lack of logistics and the slow resumption of downstream methanol enterprises after the festival, although the domestic methanol enterprises have started to work, the methanol market is still in a pattern of oversupply, especially in the northwest region where methanol needs to be exported in large quantities. The factory inventory is gradually increasing and the sales pressure is prominent. This week, the price in Inner Mongolia fell to 1400-1530 yuan / ton, and some fell by 250 yuan / ton. The port’s methanol meijinpan has not heard the actual single negotiation yet. The paper goods offer in early Zhou and far in the month discussed the fixed price offer of non Iraqi goods of 248-251.5 US dollars / ton. At present, in addition to the stable demand of MTO factory, other demands are relatively bleak. The dollar price holders say that the current supply of us gold plate is limited, so they wait and see.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is light, and the overall situation is still in a large-scale shutdown. The downstream market is in a state of shutdown, the upstream methanol market continues to fluctuate and fall, and the cost and demand are difficult to be favorable. In addition, the transportation is limited everywhere, so there is no transaction in the market. Under the influence of the overall negative, the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to improve and will remain weak.
Acetic acid: this week, the domestic acetic acid market is light and stalemate. Due to the limited automobile transportation in the market, limited trading and investment among regions, the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers keeps growing, while the start-up of the downstream acetic acid ester industry continues to be low, all the parking manufacturers are delayed to restart, and the start-up of PTA industry is also slowly declining, which leads to the substantial positive and weak market demand.
Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether is stable as a whole this week, and the prices of individual enterprises are adjusted flexibly. According to statistics, the overall operation of dimethyl ether in China this week was about 4.85%, down 5.49% and 53.09% from last week. The overall low-level operation of domestic construction, even though the market traffic is not convenient and the actual transaction is less, the enterprise quotation is still weak and stable. The main reference price in Henan Province is 3100-3150 yuan / ton.
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3、 Future forecast
From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. On the negative side, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has shown a downward trend. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees; the commencement of methanol to olefin enterprises has slightly decreased, and the unit load of Jiutai, Zhongtian hechuang and ningxiabaofeng in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 20-30%; the other two sets of MTO units in the port have maintenance plans in late February. During the Spring Festival, most of the methanol enterprises are in normal production, while the traditional demand falls to the freezing point of the year. Due to public safety emergencies, most of the downstream methanol enterprises that have stopped are not back to work, and the logistics recovery is very slow. The pressure on the raw material procurement and finished product sales of the downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream start-ups are generally reduced by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes the domestic methanol demand snow Add frost on the market; although the start-up of methanol enterprises has been reduced by about 10%, they are still in the pattern of oversupply. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term methanol trend is still declining, but the transaction price of many places falls below the cost line, and the decline is expected to slow down.
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