I. price trend
According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of December 6, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 17333 yuan / ton, which is about 530 yuan / ton higher than Monday (December 2) of this week, with an increase of 3.17%.
II. Market analysis
Product: the silicone market experienced a month long low consolidation period in November, and the upstream and downstream mentality was bearish. In the whole November, the price of silicone DMC market fell almost to the bottom. Some large factories stimulated market demand in early and middle November, and raised their prices twice, but they did not give the market an effective boost atmosphere. Before the middle of November, the market was still weak Trend oriented, until the end of November, the overall atmosphere of the silicone market has recovered, the demand orders have increased, and the inquiry situation of downstream manufacturers and distributors has improved. Some enterprises are ready to prepare goods for December. The long-term low price pressure makes the silicone DMC manufacturers eager to increase, and the expectation is even more impressive.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
December is a month that links the past year and the new year for the chemical industry. In this month, not only the market of 2019 will be finished, but also the market forecast of the new year will be started. Since December, the market of organosilicon DMC has broken the “calm”, and the market of organosilicon DMC has begun to rise. On the 4th and 5th, some organosilicon DMC manufacturers The quotation was increased by 200-400 yuan / ton. On June 6, the quotation of Luxi Chemical organosilicon DMC was increased by 400 yuan / ton again, and 17400 yuan / ton of clean water cash was delivered to the price. The shipment was OK. By the end of June 6, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is around 17200-18000 yuan / ton, and the delivery volume has picked up compared with November. With the increase of replenishment just needed in the downstream, the stock of some manufacturers is tight, which gives the following organosilicon DMC a good space to continue to push up the stock.
Operation of the unit: Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.: annual production capacity of organic silicon monomer is 80000 tons, and the unit is running smoothly at present; Tangshan Sanyou: annual production capacity of monomer enterprise is 200000 tons, and the unit is in continuous shutdown, with the estimated maintenance time of 10-15 days, and it is expected to restart in the middle of this month; Shandong Jinling: annual production capacity of monomer is 150000 tons, and the unit is running smoothly at present; Zhejiang Zhongtian: annual production capacity of monomer is 120000 tons, and the unit project In the past, the plant has been shut down for maintenance successively; Hubei Xingfa: with an annual output of 180000 tons, 80% of the plant is currently under construction; the manufacturer expects to shut down in mid December for parallel operation, and the capacity after parallel operation will become 340000 tons, and the expected shutdown time will vary from 10 to 15 days; Zhejiang Xin’an: with a total capacity of 340000 tons, the plant is currently running smoothly; Shandong Dongyue: with an annual capacity of 250000 tons, 70% of the unit is currently under construction; Jiangxi Xinghuo: single The annual production capacity of the unit is 400000 tons, and the unit is in full load operation at present; Inner Mongolia hengyecheng: the annual production capacity of the unit is 240000 tons, and 80% of the unit is in operation at present, and there is no maintenance plan for a short time.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Industry chain: this week, the downstream products silicone oil, silica gel and 107 rubber market are strongly supported by cost, and the prices are beginning to rise. The enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is increasing. Some big customers started to stock up when they saw the price rise at the beginning of last week. Therefore, the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. At present, some single factories have already sealed the disk, which further drives the subsequent rising voice. Silicone oil and 107 rubber manufacturers At present, under the condition that the shipment status is acceptable, the mentality of follow-up inflation still exists. At present, the ex factory quotation of some 107 rubber manufacturers is around 17500-18500 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of dimethylsilicone oil (domestic conventional viscosity) is around 17800-19500 yuan / ton.
III. future forecast
Business analysts think: business analysts think that in early December, on the premise of the support of upstream manufacturers, the price of organosilicon DMC market will rise slightly again in stability, and the situation is slightly optimistic in the short term, but in the long term, the overall market trend is still inseparable from the original upstream and downstream as well as the demand.
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