This week, Yulong’s new equipment was put into operation, and the supply in the northern market increased. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, spot gas purchases have weakened, and the acrylonitrile market has fallen after rising. As of February 6th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the new 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant on Shandong Yulong Second Line was successfully put into operation, and the supply in the northern market increased. The total acrylonitrile production capacity base was adjusted to 5.579 million tons/year, and the production increased slightly while the operation decreased slightly. According to statistics, as of February 5th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 68.92%, which is -0.1% higher than the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 80400 tons, which is+0.18 million tons compared to the previous cycle. Before the holiday, suppliers actively reduced prices to reduce inventory, while supply in the East China region was limited. At the same time, downstream users still had a small amount of stock, and enterprise inventory continued to decline. As of February 5th, the total inventory was around 46000 tons, an increase of -0.4 million tons from last week.
Increased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has fluctuated. Among them, the ABS capacity utilization rate was 64.4%, a decrease of -1.7% compared to last week. The 400000 tons/year ABS plant in Dagu, Tianjin, was affected by weather and operated at 60% on February 2nd, lasting for 2-3 days; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 82.75%, an increase of 16.75% compared to last week. Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber plant has been restarted; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 52.39%, which is 5.79% higher than last week. Factories in Henan and other places are closed for vacation, resulting in an overall increase in demand for acrylonitrile.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production increased. However, acrylonitrile prices remained relatively high, thus improving the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, as of February 5th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6440 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6400 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8600 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.34%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period is -820 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 271 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, although the supply in the East China region is limited, with the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical’s new plant and the planned restart of the 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Jihua (Jieyang) on February 10th, the market supply will increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market buying gas will gradually decrease, and the short-term market is expected to experience a narrow decline.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6193.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.43% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 6283.33 yuan/ton on January 21st. Starting from late January, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and falling, the cost is decreasing, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has dropped to about 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.
The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the supply has tightened
On February 5th, Sinopec quoted 6400 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, which stabilized compared to the 6400 yuan/ton price on January 21st. In February, the price of industrial naphthalene in East China was 4200-4400 yuan/ton, a decrease from the quoted price of 4350-4700 yuan/ton in late January, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased. In February, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment decreased to 61%, resulting in a decrease in production and a tightening of phthalic anhydride supply.
Demand side: DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the DOP price was 7925.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.25% compared to the DOP price of 8025.84 yuan/ton on February 2nd. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises remains stable at around 65%, DOP production remains stable, and the demand for phthalic anhydride still exists.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has stabilized, the price of industrial naphthalene has dropped significantly, the price of raw materials has decreased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. On the supply side, the production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has decreased, the output of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has tightened. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride will decrease, coupled with tight supply and stable demand, and it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7880 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 13.93% compared to the price of 6916.67 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 4th, the price of isooctanol was 7716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the price of 7880 yuan/ton on January 31st. In January, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased to 9.5%, and the supply of isooctanol was sufficient. In the latter half of the year, some isooctanol enterprises underwent maintenance, and the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises decreased to 90%; The price of propylene has risen significantly, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol increased significantly in January. In February, the prices of plasticizers fell from a high level, propylene prices fell, costs decreased, and demand fell. In February, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.
Isooctanol manufacturers start production at a high level and fall back
In January, the production rate of isooctanol manufacturers increased, with a domestic isooctanol production rate of about 95%. The production of isooctanol increased, but in the latter half of the year, isooctanol enterprises underwent maintenance, and the production rate dropped to 90%. The supply of isooctanol decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.
The cost of raw material propylene has significantly increased
As of January 31st, the price of propylene was 6404.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.01% compared to the price of 5717.67 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 2nd, the price of propylene was 6391 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.47% compared to the price of 6421 yuan/ton on January 27th. In January, the price of propylene increased significantly, with increased support for raw material prices and rising costs of isooctanol. The support for the increase in isooctanol prices increased, but in the latter half of the year, the price of propylene fell, the cost of isooctanol decreased, and the support for the increase in isooctanol prices weakened.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8017.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.44% compared to the January 1st DOP price of 7325.84 yuan/ton; On February 4th, the DOP price was 7950.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the January 31st DOP price of 8017.50 yuan/ton. In January, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises slightly decreased, with an operating rate of about 63%, and DOP production decreased compared to the previous month; Due to rising costs and decreasing supply, the price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in January, and downstream demand for isooctanol increased, providing greater support. In February, DOP enterprises saw a slight increase in production, leading to an increase in plasticizer supply. In addition, as stocking before the Spring Festival approached its end and demand declined, plasticizer prices fell in February, resulting in a decrease in demand support and a weakening of support for the rise of isooctanol.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has significantly increased, and the driving force for the rise of isooctanol has increased. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; In terms of demand, DOP enterprises have started to increase production, resulting in an increase in DOP output and increased support for isooctanol demand. In terms of the future, the price of propylene fell in February, the cost support for isooctanol weakened, and the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Plasticizer companies started production slightly in February, and the demand support for isooctanol still exists. The cost support has weakened, and the demand support still exists. The downward pressure on isooctanol has increased, and the upward support still exists. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will weaken and stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after a slight rebound in formic acid prices in mid January, the domestic formic acid market has shown a stable horizontal consolidation trend in recent days, with mainstream transaction prices continuing to stabilize at 2350 yuan/ton without significant fluctuations. The core feature of this stage of the market is the dynamic game between supply and demand, where the expected maintenance on the supply side interacts with the demand side’s urgent support before the holiday, jointly promoting price stability. The industry as a whole presents a stable operating pattern of “quantity reduction and price stability”.
The supply side is the core variable that affects the market during this cycle
From January 27th to January 29th, the core focus of the market was on the maintenance plan of a major production facility in Liaocheng. At that time, the facility had not yet started maintenance and was only in the expected maintenance stage, but this expectation had already formed effective support for the market. During this period, the overall market shipment rate remained at a moderate level, and industry inventory was also in the median range. A reasonable inventory and shipment rhythm laid the foundation for stable prices.
On January 30th, the expected maintenance officially landed, and a factory in Liaocheng launched a 100000 ton formic acid plant maintenance, resulting in a substantial reduction in market supply and a tightening of the supply side becoming an established fact; On February 2nd, the impact of maintenance continued to be released, and the overall market supply further contracted. However, due to the industry inventory being at a median level in the early stage and the continued effectiveness of production reduction and price protection policies, the gap caused by supply reduction was partially offset by reasonable inventory, which did not cause market supply tension or drive upward price fluctuations.
Demand side, ‘rigid demand driven, limited incremental’
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally tend to be cautious in their procurement mentality, abandoning the previous wait-and-see attitude and shifting to an on-demand procurement model, mainly focusing on rigid procurement to meet immediate production needs. There has been no large-scale pre holiday stocking behavior, and the market procurement intensity is relatively stable. From the overall performance of downstream industries, traditional demand areas for formic acid such as feed, leather, and printing and dyeing are in a seasonal off-season, with a production rate of less than 60% and limited consumer digestion capacity. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical and chemical industries only maintain a small amount of essential procurement, which cannot form substantial driving force for the market.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity may further decline, and downstream enterprise procurement demand is likely to continue to be dominated by rigid demand. On the supply side, the maintenance of the main equipment in Liaocheng is still ongoing, and the market supply will remain in a contracted state, making it difficult to break the supply-demand balance pattern in the short term. It is expected that the domestic formic acid market will continue its sideways consolidation trend in the short term, and the mainstream price will remain around 2350 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride rose in January. As of January 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 5262.50 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 2.93% from 5112.50 yuan/ton on January 1st.
In terms of supply: In mid to early January, the maleic anhydride market saw a narrow adjustment, with Wanhua’s auction prices falling and the transaction situation being average. This limited support for the maleic anhydride market, coupled with downstream digestion of early raw material orders, resulted in limited new orders being signed; In late January, with the low price of maleic anhydride, there were limited and closed trading operations in the main production areas, and the spot market tightened, which was favorable for the maleic anhydride market. Wanhua’s auction improved, and the transaction price continued to rise, leading to an increase in the maleic anhydride market. As of January 30th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 5000 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In January, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong continued to rise. On January 1st, the price was 5268.67 yuan/ton; On January 30th, the price was 6186.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.42% from the beginning of the month. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has increased, driving confidence in the domestic pure benzene market and encouraging buying. Pure benzene prices continue to rise. Shandong Pure Benzene Refinery is boosted by the rise in oil prices, boosting confidence and leading to a wide range of price increases. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China has remained stable at 6000 yuan/ton, and will be implemented on January 28th.
The n-butane market fluctuated upward in January, and the Saudi CP price continued to rise by $20 to $540/ton in February. The naphtha market in January first fell and then rose, and as of January 30th, the n-butane price in Shandong was around 4520 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market rose in January, with prices of maleic anhydride and styrene on the raw material side increasing and supported by costs; But the downstream industry has poor order volume, with a focus on essential procurement. At the end of the month, downstream vehicles will gradually stop for holidays, making it difficult to actively stock up and purchase goods. Many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards resin price increases, and there will be no significant improvement before the Spring Festival holiday. Trading volume is unlikely to increase significantly.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, the main downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride will gradually shut down and take a break, resulting in a gradual decrease in demand for maleic anhydride; At present, the stock delivery of maleic anhydride factories is still tight, and there is no pressure to sign orders at the moment; Wanhua’s auction transactions have improved, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will experience narrow fluctuations in the near future.