1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on October 29th was around 1582 yuan/ton. On October 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 105.07, a decrease of 0.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.45% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 19.03% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1584 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China rose in October. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s hydrofluoric acid (export) was 12866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.05% compared to the beginning of this month (12733.33 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The fluorite market has slightly increased this week, and the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. The cost of hydrofluoric acid is under pressure. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 417.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.70% compared to the beginning of this month (337.50 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant market maintenance is gradually recovering, and the quota stock in December is not high. It is expected that there will be insufficient production in the later stage, resulting in weakened demand.

Market forecast: Recently, there will be an increase in raw material prices, and the cost side will still be under pressure. The market supply is scarce, and it is expected that prices will rise significantly at the beginning of next month.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell by 0.79% on October 25th.

After a period of stable support for up to half a month, magnesium prices have experienced two consecutive corrections this week. It is already under downward pressure near the cost line. Adjust to status operation. Today, mainstream manufacturers in Shaanxi region quoted 17500-17600 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in Shanxi region range from 17700-17800 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, factories have a strong willingness to raise prices under high cost pressures, but the large inventory leads to a decrease in quotes. On the cost side, the prices of ferrosilicon and coal have rebounded, weakening support for magnesium prices.

In summary, the factory’s losses continue to intensify, downstream demand has not significantly increased, prices are at a low level, and there is limited room for further decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 24, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6800 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since October, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China has shown a trend of “first rising and then falling”. In early October, the focus of the n-butanol market quickly approached a high level. On October 10th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was referenced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton. In the first ten days, n-butanol increased by 5.19%. In the mid stage, the n-butanol market started a high-level decline, and the market negotiated prices continued to decline until they reached the beginning of the month level. At the end of the month, the n-butanol market entered a post decline consolidation stage. On October 24th, the market price reference for n-butanol in Shandong region was around 6800-6900 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: After the National Day holiday in October, the on-site inventory of n-butanol was tight, and the overall supply pressure on the market was low. The supply side provided support for the n-butanol market. Later, some units on the supply side resumed operation, and the on-site supply was loose. The supply pressure from factories in some areas gradually increased, and the push from the supply side to the market also weakened.

In terms of demand: In early October, downstream users in the n-butanol market concentrated on restocking after the holiday, and the demand for n-butanol received a brief boost. The market continued to rise under the support of demand, and after the demand turned calm, the effective support for the sustained high level of n-butanol market was weakened, and the market price suddenly began to decline.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively quiet, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Downstream users continue to replenish their essential needs, and the transmission between supply and demand is still slow. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium acid market has experienced a slight rebound and has once again entered a downward trend. As of October 22, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 79000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54% from 77800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 2.95% from 81400 yuan/ton last week. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 76400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.6% from 75200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.05% from 78800 yuan/ton last week.

Downstream is in a critical period of switching between peak and off peak seasons, and demand is approaching its peak

The production of batteries and positive electrodes in October is already in the latter half of the peak season, which means that market demand may have begun to show signs of slowing down. Although demand may remain strong in November, it is difficult to achieve further growth on the basis of October. This trend indicates that market demand is gradually reaching saturation point and may face downward pressure in the future.

Upstream lithium mine imports increase, filling the gap in domestic mine reduction

The significant increase in Australian ore shipments in September, as well as the recent large-scale arrival of African ore at ports, has brought about a significant increase in lithium ore imports in October. This increment is expected to make up for the reduction in domestic mines, resulting in relatively sufficient supply at the mining end. At present, there is no significant slowdown in the overall supply side. As the peak season gradually weakens, the performance of the demand side is facing challenges. The inventory is maintained at around 120000 tons, and the turnover is not obvious. The price lacks upward driving force.

The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the rebound of the lithium carbonate market is weak, and the price will continue to operate weakly. Specific market dynamics and policy changes need to be closely monitored.