1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the trend of polysilicon in China this week (1.13-19) has not changed much compared with last week. After the market stopped falling, it did not usher in an increase. At present, the deadlock is mainly stable, and the purchase volume in the downstream before the Festival did not increase, mainly for the temporary Spring Festival. Before that, most of the enterprises have signed the bill. At present, there is no market and the supply pressure has eased slightly. As of January 19, according to the business The overall rise and fall of domestic polysilicon solar grade cycle is 0% as monitored by CCS, and the average price quoted by enterprises is 52000-56000 yuan / ton. The current price is about 20% lower than last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of last week.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is OK. This week, 12 polysilicon production enterprises are operating normally, with partial load reduction. According to the production plan of each enterprise, at present, the enterprise inventory control is effective, and there is no huge social inventory pressure. In addition, the two enterprises in South Korea shut down production for maintenance in January and February, and the domestic import volume will be reduced accordingly, which also slowed down the domestic supply pressure to some extent. From the comparison of monocrystal and polycrystal, the performance of monocrystal silicon is slightly better than polycrystal silicon, which occupies part of the demand of polycrystal silicon. The growth of monocrystal production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the situation of manufacturers, in polysilicon enterprises, after the order signing year, the market purchase volume has increased slightly. Although the price remains low, the order has increased significantly. On the other hand, the single crystal inventory of silicon material enterprises has been consumed during the low price period of the market in the past few weeks, so there is no more supply pressure, so the price of single crystal has not been shaken, the downward pressure of polysilicon has also been eased, and the market is rigid and stable.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since 2020, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized. Before the festival, most of the downstream orders have been placed in advance, and most of the orders have been signed in February. The transaction price of some enterprises shows slight signs of recovery. On the one hand, because the downstream demand is rigid, the purchasing base gas at the end of the lunar calendar year, and the polysilicon operation rate has increased to 100%, which also confirms the downstream The demand is getting better, but it can’t be entirely optimistic. This is inseparable from the Spring Festival procurement peak. After the completion of the downstream stock up, the possibility of enterprises gradually accumulating the stock is not ruled out.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the improvement of demand is the main reason for polysilicon market to stop falling and stabilize. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, enterprise inventory pressure is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the mid-term of the supply side. Most of the enterprises start work at full load, which does not exclude the possibility that the inventory will return to a high level again after the festival, and the demand released in advance will be superimposed. After the Spring Festival, the demand may be discounted, and the market procurement may be reduced. Therefore, it does not exclude that the market will enter a new inventory removal cycle, and the price may be repeated.

1、 Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable this week, with the weekend price of 2894.44 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 2894.44 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 20.34%. Fluorite prices are mainly volatile in the near future.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China this week has been fluctuating. Recently, the supply of fluorite in China has decreased. However, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has not improved significantly. The price of fluorite has been fluctuating with little change. The price of fluorite in the market is generally the same. The manufacturers and downstream companies are going to have holidays gradually near the Spring Festival. The price trend of fluorite in the market is stable. By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite was stable temporarily.

Industry chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is stable this week. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 10240 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is stable this week. The stability of the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is a good factor in the fluorite market, and the market price of fluorite in China remains volatile. In the near future, the trading trend of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable, mainly because the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock, most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically, and the orders before the main supply, the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the main price of domestic large enterprises is 15500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains high, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the air conditioning industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price trend remains high, the downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is mainly stable.

Industry: this week, the fluorite industry started to operate generally, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid did not change much. The spot supply of fluorite products was normal, and the market price of fluorite remained volatile.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, in the near future, the domestic fluorite manufacturers have generally started their installations, and the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry has remained stable. In addition, the market price of downstream refrigeration industry has not changed much. Chen Ling, an analyst of fluorite in the business agency, thinks that the price of fluorite may remain stable in the later stage, or about 2900 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price rose slightly, with a quotation of 49033.33 yuan / ton, 0.08% higher than the previous day, up 4.21% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contract fell 0.10% to a low of 49180 yuan at 49260 yuan today.

2、 Market analysis

In the near future, copper has maintained a narrow range of shock trend. The supply of raw materials is tight, Codelco may not renew the agreement of supplying copper concentrate to a smelter in Shandong Province in 2020, which causes the market’s concern about the supply of refined copper. There are too many fundamentals in the copper market, and the support under the copper price remains.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency think that: near the Spring Festival, processing enterprises are gradually on holiday, trading enterprises are clearing inventory and settling accounts, and the transaction is increasingly weak. The comments of the US Treasury secretary made the market cautious about the trade prospect between China and the US, and the copper price was blocked in the upward direction. However, the fundamentals are still supported, and the space below is limited. In the short term, the copper price may fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of January 13, the market of propylene oxide fell, with an average price of 9650 yuan / ton, down 2.03% compared with last Friday (January 10), and 6.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. On the 13th, the main quotation of propylene oxide in China was 9600-9750 yuan / ton. On January 13, the propylene oxide commodity index was 60.06, down 1.25 points from December 12, down 40.64% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), and up 44.03% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide fell on the 13th. Downstream demand weakened, high-end shipments were blocked, main factories lowered their prices, and actively shipped. Downstream polyether users’ enthusiasm for bargain hunting and replenishment slightly increased, and the inventory of propylene oxide manufacturers was low, and the transaction was stable. On the 13th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 9750 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9750-9850 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9450-9600 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9600-9700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on January 13, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong still rose. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on January 7 and 8, it was stable on January 9, it was continuously increased on October 10 and 11, and it was stable on the whole line on December 12. Today, it rose again by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7000-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. The lower soft foam polyether market fell on the 13th, with limited new orders. Hard foam polyether market moves down in a narrow range, with a small number of new orders mainly negotiated.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 13, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquid ammonia (3.44%), ethylene glycol (3.06%) and ethylene (2.40%). There are 8 kinds of commodities in the decline on a ring basis. The products with the first 3 drops are chloroform (-4.76%), hydrogen peroxide (-2.56%) and propylene oxide (-2.03%). The 13 day average rose or fell 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously in recent years, and the cost support has been greatly increased. With the end of the downstream pre Festival stock demand, it is expected that the propylene oxide market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the transactions in the upstream and downstream mainstream markets.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.36% lower than that of the same period last month and 4.15% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

2、 Market analysis

Product: stable operation of domestic alcohol market. Henan’s market is stable with stable price; Northeast’s market is weak with stable price; Shandong’s short-term logistics has little impact on the price; East China’s current supply is small with high market price supported by the supply. The downstream demand in Guangxi continues to slow down, the enterprise quotation is stable, a small number of customers just need to maintain procurement; the market price in Guangdong before the Spring Festival is still dominated by high price consolidation; the enterprise quotation in Anhui is still relatively stable, the overall market performance is light, and the enterprises in other regions have little change.

Industry chain: corn: the price of corn has been slightly adjusted during the stabilization. Before and after the lunar new year, the grain sales of grass-roots growers will be finished, and the marketable time of the market will be tightened again, so it is difficult for the spot mainstream market to fluctuate substantially. The period of grain sales before the festival is shortened, farmers are faced with the demand of cash realization and loan repayment before the festival, and the grass-roots grain sales in the main production area have increased. Some processing enterprises will end their periodic stock preparation, and the purchase and sale will turn to light. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but the signs of bottoming have been shown. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. Due to the pulling effect of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable around the first and middle of January.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to be stable, the raw material acetic acid rose and then stabilized, and the cost of ethyl acetate was dispersed. The substantial demand for ethyl acetate in the downstream is weak, but the falling price does not attract the downstream purchase. The market is passive and the transaction is light and stalemate. Some ethyl acetate manufacturers stop during the Spring Festival, and the overall social inventory growth is slow. It is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that the short-term domestic ethanol market finishing operation. Large factories in Northeast China have low inventory and stable shipment; however, small factories have high inventory, positive shipment mentality and weak market price due to the limitation of transportation; East China’s arrival in Hong Kong in January is not large, production enterprises start less, market supply is limited, and downstream demand is limited, so it is expected that the short-term market will remain in order; Henan Province’s production enterprises will be loaded due to the reduction of liquor and chemical industry Under normal operation, short-term market weakness is expected to be consolidated. At present, the production of existing devices in Guangxi is stable, but the Spring Festival is approaching, and the downstream rigid demand is slightly insufficient. Some enterprises have low inventory price before the festival, and it is expected that the short-term market will be weak and stable. At present, the production enterprises in Guangdong Province have less startup of devices, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and the supply side is favorable for the market price, and the market price is expected to be high. Hubei has enterprise parking plan, and the market is expected to be high The price is high and stable; the downstream demand in Anhui and Sichuan is close to the end, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the market price is expected to be stable.