Polysilicon market held steady this week, and price is stable and supply decrease before and after the Spring Festival (1.13-19)

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the trend of polysilicon in China this week (1.13-19) has not changed much compared with last week. After the market stopped falling, it did not usher in an increase. At present, the deadlock is mainly stable, and the purchase volume in the downstream before the Festival did not increase, mainly for the temporary Spring Festival. Before that, most of the enterprises have signed the bill. At present, there is no market and the supply pressure has eased slightly. As of January 19, according to the business The overall rise and fall of domestic polysilicon solar grade cycle is 0% as monitored by CCS, and the average price quoted by enterprises is 52000-56000 yuan / ton. The current price is about 20% lower than last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of last week.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is OK. This week, 12 polysilicon production enterprises are operating normally, with partial load reduction. According to the production plan of each enterprise, at present, the enterprise inventory control is effective, and there is no huge social inventory pressure. In addition, the two enterprises in South Korea shut down production for maintenance in January and February, and the domestic import volume will be reduced accordingly, which also slowed down the domestic supply pressure to some extent. From the comparison of monocrystal and polycrystal, the performance of monocrystal silicon is slightly better than polycrystal silicon, which occupies part of the demand of polycrystal silicon. The growth of monocrystal production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the situation of manufacturers, in polysilicon enterprises, after the order signing year, the market purchase volume has increased slightly. Although the price remains low, the order has increased significantly. On the other hand, the single crystal inventory of silicon material enterprises has been consumed during the low price period of the market in the past few weeks, so there is no more supply pressure, so the price of single crystal has not been shaken, the downward pressure of polysilicon has also been eased, and the market is rigid and stable.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since 2020, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized. Before the festival, most of the downstream orders have been placed in advance, and most of the orders have been signed in February. The transaction price of some enterprises shows slight signs of recovery. On the one hand, because the downstream demand is rigid, the purchasing base gas at the end of the lunar calendar year, and the polysilicon operation rate has increased to 100%, which also confirms the downstream The demand is getting better, but it can’t be entirely optimistic. This is inseparable from the Spring Festival procurement peak. After the completion of the downstream stock up, the possibility of enterprises gradually accumulating the stock is not ruled out.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the improvement of demand is the main reason for polysilicon market to stop falling and stabilize. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, enterprise inventory pressure is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the mid-term of the supply side. Most of the enterprises start work at full load, which does not exclude the possibility that the inventory will return to a high level again after the festival, and the demand released in advance will be superimposed. After the Spring Festival, the demand may be discounted, and the market procurement may be reduced. Therefore, it does not exclude that the market will enter a new inventory removal cycle, and the price may be repeated.