2016 so far, the domestic titanium dioxide industry experienced more than ten rounds of price increases, the relevant enterprises profitable. However, the Securities Times reporter learned that nearly a month, titanium dioxide upstream titanium concentrate prices have been high down, the market supply and demand contradictions are gradually emerging, for nearly a year and a half of the titanium dioxide bull market or difficult to sustain.

Titanium concentrate prices fall titanium dioxide supply and demand contradiction highlights

Environmental protection limited production, coupled with the trend of the downstream titanium dioxide industry soaring, so that titanium concentrate was once scarce goods, the price from January 2016 450 yuan / ton, straight pull up to 2017 in mid-April nearly 2,000 yuan / ton Of the high, or nearly 350%.

“However, from mid to late April, this continued price increases began to worsen the trend.” Business community titanium dioxide industry analysis Yang Xun said, now the market price of titanium concentrate has fallen to about 1700 yuan / ton, part Small mines also can not sell the price. In just three weeks, Titanium concentrate has fallen by 15%.

Titanium concentrate this round of price surge this is caused by the linkage of titanium dioxide, and now the price decline, but also due to lack of downstream demand triggered.

“Before and after the Spring Festival this year, titanium concentrate traders also claimed that tight supply, hoard goods waiting for high prices, but now there are small traders began to gradually puff.” Yang Xun said, from the end of March 2017, Mine downstream demand gradually fades. Whether the downstream titanium dioxide market, or the next layer of the paint market, demand showed a weak state.

It is reported that the main downstream production of titanium dioxide paint, decoration paper and other materials, and the real estate market is closely related. This year the domestic real estate regulation and control policies frequently overweight, the market demand for titanium dioxide also showed a downward trend. In addition, due to the price of titanium dioxide has risen more than a year, the downstream enterprises stocking significantly, large terminal stocking for 3 months, small terminal stocking more available half a year, the second quarter of 2017 demand has been in advance overdraft.

“The past two years due to the price of titanium dioxide rose, the paint industry production and management difficulties.Now environmental protection supervision is not reduced, companies need to bear the cost of increasing environmental protection equipment, so the overall production enthusiasm is not high.

Henan a titanium dioxide small business executives told reporters that the price of titanium dioxide at the same time, titanium concentrate prices also ferocious, so the same industry companies to cope with rising costs, but also more than a few months of hoard goods. At the same time, due to the shortage of pre-domestic titanium concentrate, many companies also turned to the import of foreign mines. Today, foreign products are sold to domestic, but the market demand has been reduced, so the supply is difficult to digest.

“Traders also have a lot of titanium concentrates store goods, to see the market signs wrong, from the price of 1900 yuan / ton when there are a lot of lower than the market price of shipping, and slowly put the price down.” He Say.

Yang Xun that the titanium dioxide industry is also affected by environmental protection, production capacity is limited, not so much mine. And such as dragon python Bai Li leading enterprises, but also their own mines, it is expected that the future titanium concentrate market will continue to be in

a weak demand, the price will decline in shocks.
Titanium dioxide prices peaked in the future or difficult to continue

But also because of the high bargaining power of large enterprises, the current titanium dioxide industry in the case of slow demand, the price remains strong.

“On the current market situation, the domestic large and medium-sized production enterprises to get orders sufficient, but also to limit the volume of traders or terminals, and exports are relatively good, there is no pressure on the stock, all the reasons for no price.

Yang Xun said that despite the beginning of the end of March, the demand for titanium dioxide gradually deserted, the majority of the market participants gave the industry a large manufacturer dragged his hind legs, but the current capacity is still large export volume, orders to be completed, the stock is still tension. So the production capacity is still a continuation of the price of the “main theme”, and the reality of the market situation formed a “big reversal.” In the short term, the price of titanium dioxide or will continue to high.

But he also said that although the highest price of titanium dioxide is 23,000 yuan / ton in 2011, but when the real estate market to the good, strong demand, and the current market situation can not be in the same breath. At present, the world’s largest producer of titanium dioxide DuPont US prices only about 20400 yuan / ton, the domestic sold to 19,000 yuan / ton is actually a Kaner. It is reported that the recent large enterprises have begun to return through the rebate and other means of price movements. If the manufacturers officially open the price shipping mode, the market or there will be retaliatory decline.

The current price of titanium dioxide has not yet appeared callback signal, but the current price is indeed high.

“In fact, many large enterprises in the market to implement the orders are also signed a few months ago, although the latest offer in 19,000 yuan / ton, but the actual implementation price is only about 17,000 yuan / ton up and down.” In recent years, titanium dioxide Prices rose, exacerbated the downstream paint industry reshuffle, many companies are facing losses, shut down, production capacity has been reduced.

In the China Titanium Dioxide Industry Association Secretary-General Deng Jie view, titanium dioxide price reduction is inevitable.

He believes that the price of titanium concentrate highlights the titanium dioxide market changes. Long-term price increases, leading to titanium dioxide manufacturing side of the inventory transferred to the downstream, paint business stocks at the same time, sales are not optimistic. At present, poor application of titanium dioxide downstream, wait and see mood obvious.

“Titanium dioxide high price may also continue for a month or two, and then go down is probably how to rise on how to go back.” Deng Jie said that the current titanium dioxide business inventory is not large, but also began to sell The. The higher the industry concentration, the more can not afford inventory. Titanium dioxide prices still need to drive lower downstream, but the current fundamentals of China’s economic downturn has not changed, coupled with the continued regulation and control this year, the real estate market demand, so titanium dioxide gains difficult to sustain.

“Titanium dioxide price of a reasonable level of about 15,000 yuan / ton up and down this year, titanium dioxide is difficult to reach 20,000 yuan / ton high, the end of the price will return to 15,000 yuan / ton this line will be profitable, but not Will have such a big profit for nearly a year, “he said.

In the stable coal prices and other policies continue to force, the market is expected to strengthen the bearish. May 17, “Economic Information Daily” reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Coal Network, the latest issue of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index to close at 593 yuan / ton, the chain down 3 yuan / ton, has been the eighth consecutive decline, Expanded.

This year, coal prices continue to be high, coal and electricity conflicts intensified, the National Development and Reform Commission frequently shot control. May Shenhua, China Coal took the lead in lowering the price of coal.

At the same time, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia and other major coal-producing areas began to implement 330 working days. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission issued “on further speed up the construction of coal mine capacity replacement work notice”, asked to increase the proportion of coal production capacity replacement, replacement progress has been determined, the future progress of advanced coal production capacity is expected to accelerate.

“In April, the national coal production of 294.53 million tons, an increase of 9.9%, the growth rate was significantly enlarged in the country to strengthen security and other relevant policies under the guidance of coal production release significantly, while the relevant ministries are also studying the introduction of poor imports of coal Related measures, and more measures, the coal prices will gradually return to a reasonable range. “Qinhuangdao coal network analyst Qi Bo analysis said.

In addition, due to the upstream areas, environmental monitoring intensified, are not allowed to open storage of coal, and deadline for rectification, but the open storage of coal to sell, making the rapid decline in coal prices, “is expected to gradually down the inventory to the middle reaches of the port and downstream power plants, So the recent thermal coal prices will plunge the situation. “Shen Wanhong source research reported.

From the demand side, April and May for the traditional power demand off-season. Qinhuangdao coal network monitoring data show that the six major coastal power plant inventory has been restored to more than 12 million tons, the number of available days rose to 20 days.

Watson Wanda futures analysis also pointed out that in May, after all, coal demand is off-season, especially in March after the “off-season is not light”, the latter part of the coal price is expected to go through a longer period of decline, the expected decline will continue to In mid-June, to be peak summer power plant began to prepare coal, coal demand will pick up.

In the past just “Spring ploughing and selling fertilizer” tug of war, many provinces and channel enterprises and agricultural production enterprises “defeated.” Among them, has always been favored by farmers in the East three provinces market more “Waterloo”, some dealers to reduce sales almost equal to 30% or more. In addition, according to industry sources, due to market downturn, some companies reluctantly will be transferred to the Northeast three provinces.

And the strange thing is, in a reporter interviewed a number of three provinces and farmers in the process of farmers, they feedback the local farmers with the total amount of fertilizer has not drastically reduced, the planting structure has not been a substantial adjustment. So, why business and dealer sales plummeted? This phenomenon, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation.

Phenomenon: sales sharp drop 20% -50%, profits dropped!

Shenyang Jinqiu Real Agriculture Co., Ltd. General Manager Wang Yanmin with “unprecedented plain” to describe just past the spring plowing fat situation. “Although years ago, after the year were two batches of goods, but take a crop as a stubble before the sale of fat there is a small climax, this year is extremely flat on the end.” Wang Yanmin predicted, according to this year , The best annual sales will be more than 40,000 tons, which compared to last year will be reduced by about 34%.

And this phenomenon, Liaoning Gaoyuan Jinjie source of agricultural limited liability company general manager Xu Guilong is even more pessimistic. “Last year before the Spring Festival began to ship, and this year until the market in March to start in previous year sales of more than 10,000 tons, according to this sign, this year I am afraid to play on the sale of the fold.” According to Xu Guilong said that the local with him There are a few resembling resellers.

Channel sales were tragically “Waterloo”, agricultural production enterprises have not been spared. Jilin Huilong Fertilizer Co., Ltd. General Manager Chen Hu sigh, in recent years, especially in the first quarter of this year, the formal compound fertilizer and mixed fertilizer manufacturers in the three northeastern provinces of the living conditions are extremely difficult: “early raw material prices are relatively low But on the whole, most of the ex-factory prices are very low pressure, profit meager. “According to Chen Hu introduced, although the first quarter of Jilin in the first half of the year, the company’s profits, City Huilong fertilizer industry rely on mature outlets and grasp of the market, the performance does not drop increase. But indeed some agricultural production enterprises in the first quarter sales reduction of more than about 20%.

Reporters initially inferred, resulting in this year’s agricultural channels and manufacturers of sales decline in the reasons may be due to the Northeast three provinces to adjust the structure, as well as peasant fertilizer caused by a sharp drop. However, through interviews found that this judgment does not stand very well. According to Liaoning and Heilongjiang farmers say, most of the local counties and cities of corn acreage has not been a huge reduction. Farmers have not plummeted fertilizer, but only a limited reduction. This can not help but wonder, those who decline in the performance of dealers and manufacturers of sales, where to go? How is it not change it?

Deep digging: who is squeezing the channels and the living space of the business?

According to the reporter to understand, the new business main body climbing, land transfer and custody business scale, foolishness group serious outbreak, food prices downturn and planting structure adjustment and other issues, this year farmers recognized the important impact of agricultural market.

Among them, the rapid increase in the cultivation of large, co-operatives, the number of family farms, and they directly to the manufacturers bargain model, the most pressure to increase the channel operators. According to Liaoning Anshan Zhongtai fertilizer distribution office to allow observation, although so far, the local real scale of the new business is not too much, but from this year’s development trend, very rapid. At the same time, a large area of land management business is also forming. I would like to let this year, a friend of Taian County, breathtaking 4,000 acres of land. The land supply of these land, as well as from the kind of income to the work, by the land management company package. An acre of land to friends 400 dollars. In addition, there is a Guangdong company this year in Italy Fuyuan County contract 100 million mu of rice, agricultural products are also directly related with the agricultural production enterprises. Will let the emotion, the involvement of foreign capital and the rise of big, so that more and more difficult to do channel operators.

In addition, due to a serious outbreak of this year’s flicker group led to regular manufacturers and channel operators by the impact of the phenomenon, but also become the most agricultural farmers Tucao point. “In the first quarter of this year, the light in the Gongzhuling investigated and dealt with more than 10.” According to an industry source, this year in the East three provinces have a kind of (18-15-12), but carefully found only 50 kg of mixed fertilizer, 80% are amino acid particles, that is to say , Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium and sulfur and other elements of nutrients only 20%. But the people do not understand, immersed in the less spent more than 20 dollars to buy and the content of formal mixed fertilizer like the joy. In addition, according to Wang Yanmin said that these small manufacturers of the distribution speed is also very fast: “local places are not regular logo small manufacturers, they turned the tricks to cheat farmers with fertilizer this year we went to the grassroots distribution when found , These fat has long been quietly paved into a lot of villages. This is really give us the impact of the formal channel is not a little leeway.

In addition, the food price downturn and planting structure adjustment on the adverse effects of agricultural sales can not be ignored. “The original price of corn is not high, let the people do not love farming, the results of this year, Liaoning is also drought, farmers this year’s harvest more heart drums in previous years will generally catch up with urea, this year probably also hung.” Liaoning open eight trees Town Xia Jiacun growers Xu Hualong said that this year’s cheap fertilizer sales in the local can, but the big brands because the price is no advantage, by the impact of great. In addition, for the planting structure adjustment, Heilongjiang Jixi City co-owner Yang Sihua said that some of the cold areas of the northeastern part of the corn area is relatively large, the original acres of fertilizer with 0.6-0.7 tons of fertilizer, soybean varieties, With 0.2-0.3 tons of fertilizer, (to verify whether to send cool) This is indeed some parts of the dealer sales have an impact.

“Now the agricultural business can be said to be tasteless, abandoned the pity. Fought so many years, I could not bear to give up, but do not give up also do not earn any money. This is not a person I feel, a lot of people are Have the same feeling. “Xu Guilong feeling.

Measures: the market is difficult, how to break through the dilemma!

Will let the words, not far from the future, purely focused on “low buy high and sell” agricultural distributors, will die. Modern agriculture needs advanced production technology + advanced agricultural products. And when the agricultural technology services to become the standard of agricultural channels, Xu Guilong that the contents of the competition will be upgraded to the scope of services, as well as the length of service time.

For the new business entities across the middle channel business this problem, Chen Hu said that as a manufacturer, do not want to benefit for a moment and over the local dealers, unless the dealer’s operating capacity is indeed a problem, will take the initiative to dock large households. We hope that relying on dealers docking downstream market, through planning activities together to jointly develop the market. For enterprises how to break the market, Chen Hu believes that to continue “innovative marketing model, upgrade product category, enhance technology, improve service capabilities.”

In addition, for the flicker group and logo does not regulate the impact of small manufacturers, Chen Hu said that with the land transfer and custody business development, the future of the land will be more professional and young. This is absolutely positive for the development of formal enterprises and channels. Wang Yanmin said that the off-season, many companies will be free to teach farmers how to distinguish between true and false fertilizer. While calling on the Government to continue to increase crackdown efforts, so that the flicker groups and illegal enterprises nowhere to hide.

“Although this year I think the market is the most difficult to do a year, but I think the blacksmith also need their own hard! Many aspects of the bit, and get the market is not a big problem.” Chen Hu told reporters.

2017 “the Belt and Road Initiatives” International Cooperation Summit Forum will be held May 14, 2017 – May 15 held in Beijing. Another international conference will be held in Beijing, environmental protection storm has become the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei production enterprises of the public criticism. In the near future two sessions, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region’s production enterprises to take a “one size fits all” measures to shut down, which there are accidental injury situation, the pesticide industry has been a huge impact. And immediately come to the area along the way, but also what measures?

Beijing prohibits the transport of dangerous chemicals

In order to meet the high-profile international forum, in order to ensure the safety and smooth traffic of Beijing road, according to the “People’s Republic of China Road Traffic Safety Law,” the relevant provisions, decided from May 12, 2017 to 2017 May At 24:00 on the 17th, all day to prohibit the delivery of dangerous chemicals (including highly toxic chemicals) vehicles in the administrative area of ​​Beijing road driving.

Increase environmental inspection and inspection efforts

According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection website news, the Ministry of Environmental Protection on May 9 informed the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas to strengthen the investigation of air pollution control, 23 inspectors on the 8th supervision of 301 enterprises (units) and found that 236 enterprises Environmental problems, accounting for about 78.4% of the total inspection. Inspection team to inspect the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, can not be stable discharge standards, excessive emissions of enterprises will be discontinued, exceeding the top row of corporate emissions penalty.

Hebei province to carry out environmental enforcement focus on strengthening action

According to the Hebei Provincial Environmental Protection Department issued the news, Hebei Province, related enterprises to inspect (discontinued) for about 10 days. As follows: In order to cooperate with the province’s air quality attack on the action, to promote the provincial government “on the strong promotion of air pollution comprehensive management of the views” and 18 special programs to effectively implement the study decided to carry out in the province for 10 days Of the environmental law enforcement to strengthen the action, the relevant matters are informed as follows -

1, check the scope: Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai, Handan and other eight air pollution transmission channel city and Dingzhou, Xinji City.

2, inspection methods and time: in May 8, 1717 – May 17 to provincial, city, county (city, district) linkage law enforcement, the provincial Environmental Protection Office set up enforcement inspection team, Hebei Province, air pollution control and supervision Work in the city inspection team, the city organization of the city and the county (city, district) law enforcement officers to take the investigation and dark investigation and daily inspection and occasional surprise checks combined to strengthen the focus of investigation, focus on investigating key environmental Illegal;

3, the main content: to increase the intensity of law enforcement, and severely punish the atmosphere of environmental violations, the city’s environmental protection departments to steel, coking, cement, glass, electricity, casting, perennial operation of coal-fired boilers and other elevated sources, emissions V0Cs key industries, “Business gathering area as the focus, strict investigation and punishment of excessive emissions, improper management facilities, online monitoring fraud and other environmental violations, in particular, to increase the discharge can not be stable, May 8 to 17 during the period will be suspended for rectification; On the 10th after the emergence of excessive emissions, all of which will immediately ordered to stop production remediation, and severely dealt with, the top grid punishment; for the standard hopeless, stealing row of industrial stalls and small workshops, scattered rural “industrial compound” To “two broken three clear” requirements; the majority of enterprises have not yet received a notice, on the further implementation of the situation, will follow up in a timely manner.

Overall, this “the Belt and Road Initiatives” Summit period, the measures of environmental protection measures compared to the two sessions, obviously a lot of reason. During the two sessions, the implementation of a unified stop production, limited production measures, in the production of Beijing and Tianjin in a number of environmental standards in accordance with the production of enterprises accidental injury phenomenon. The restrictions, the proposed increase is to increase supervision and supervision efforts, can be stable discharge standards of enterprises do not stop production behavior.

According to statistics, since the beginning of last year, titanium dioxide prices rose more than 76%. And as a leader in titanium dioxide dragon python Bai Li recently also on the price trend of the position, specifically:

Titanium dioxide price forecast: titanium dioxide prices rose more than 76%

May prices of titanium dioxide

From the end of 2015, by the raw material prices and environmental costs “double increase” the impact of the domestic titanium dioxide industry set off a wave of continued price increases. Today, the development of titanium dioxide industry was wind and water, the price rose again and again round, surging from the tide of rising prices in the achievements of titanium dioxide business, but also led to the downstream countless individuals struggling.

According to the reporter to understand, including the town of Jiangsu Titanium, Panzhihua City, Haifeng Xin Chemical Co., Ltd., Yunnan Metallurgical New Titanium and other enterprises almost at the same time announced price increases. From January to May this year, this is the fifth round of titanium dioxide prices, titanium dioxide prices since the beginning of last year has been the overall increase of more than 76%.

According to public statistics, 2016 ending price of 15,300 yuan / ton, while the beginning of the price of only 10,900 yuan / ton, the annual increase of up to 40.36%, up nearly 5,000 yuan per ton.

In early February this year, Chemours, the world’s largest company, announced that it has upgraded all grades of Ti-Pure Titanium from North America, Canada, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Europe, Middle East and Africa since March 1, 2017 White powder price. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region raised 150 US dollars / ton; North America and Canada raised 0.06 US dollars / lb; Latin America, Eastern Europe and other raised 200 US dollars / ton; Western Europe and Central Europe and other raised 200 euros / ton.

Subsequently, Huntsman (Huntsman) also announced that it raised its global sales of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) pigment prices. Among them, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America raised 235 euros / ton or 250 US dollars / ton, the Asia-Pacific raised 160 US dollars / ton, the price increase from April 1, 2017 from the entry into force; North America raised 0.07 US dollars / lb, Effective March 1, 2017.

With the foreign titanium dioxide giant Komu, Huntsman have to adjust the price of the product, which seems to indicate that the domestic price of titanium dioxide is about to enter a new round of price increases.

Titanium dioxide prices rise reasons

Why is the price of titanium dioxide so crazy? The so-called titanium dioxide known as titanium dioxide, is a dye and pigment (white powder). Titanium dioxide in industrial production is a more important raw materials, widely used in coatings, plastics, rubber, cosmetics, ceramics, electronics, medicine and other industries.

South China Institute of Intelligent Innovation Zeng Haiwei that the state supply side of the reform and environmental protection and other factors out of a group of small scale, low efficiency titanium dioxide production enterprises. Therefore, titanium dioxide enterprises will gradually return to the rational, healthy and orderly development of the state.

It is easy to see that titanium dioxide prices behind the market is the inevitable result of healthy development. According to the reporter learned that, as early as 2015, titanium dioxide prices continued to decline, many companies are hard to find good, and some enterprises can not withstand the decline in prices eventually out of the industry. Zhongyu information analyst Zhu Lin in the “China Sankei Shimbun” reporter said that only in 2015 year time, foreign shut down 400,000 of the production capacity, the domestic also withdrew nearly 300,000 of the production capacity, these removed Production capacity together a total of 700,000 to 800,000.

“In the environmental pressure, the domestic enterprises in the production has been in control of production capacity, which also led to the manufacturers of stock tight, which will cause prices continue to rise.” Zhu Lin believes that upstream and downstream supply and demand is also an important push up momentum. From the upstream, titanium dioxide raw material titanium prices continue to rise, from the beginning of 2016 520 yuan rose to 1850 yuan, up more than 2 times; from the downstream demand side, titanium dioxide is mainly used for paint, and Paint production in 2016 prices are steadily rising, the upstream supply plus the downstream demand together caused by 2016 titanium dioxide prices all the way up.

Data show that in 2016, titanium dioxide exports amounted to 720,500 tons, a substantial increase of 33.82% over 2015. January-February 2017, the domestic titanium dioxide exports reached 11.15 million tons, compared with the same period last year increased by 15.31%.

From the analysis of the industry can be clear, the upstream raw materials, downstream prices rose, exports continue to support the growth of titanium dioxide prices.

Insiders believe that the increasing cost of logistics costs, but also makes the cost of titanium dioxide enterprises to increase the pressure, therefore, manufacturers only through the way titanium dioxide price increases in order to maintain the status quo.