After the first trading day, Shanghai Rubber 1709 contract rose 3.5%, breaking the previous two weeks of consolidation trend, stand in 15,000 points in one fell swoop. And since then the macroeconomic downturn pressure, manufacturing PMI data is not ideal; financial regulatory trend, capital costs rise; international oil prices continued to fall and fundamentals and other factors together, Hujiao continued to fall, has fallen below 14000 mark.

Annual supply of large probability loose

Since the end of last year to the beginning of this year, Thailand suffered severe floods, tapping progress slowed down. According to statistics, January-February Thailand’s natural rubber production of 725,800 tons, down 13.9%, but the Thai government immediately to sell to the market to increase supply. From the transaction situation, the first round of throwing in January because the glue can not properly tapping, spot shortage and smooth turnover, but then several rounds to the end of the flow, which from the side shows the supply is not as good as imagined. The Thai government has said that by the end of May will be completed before the remaining 107,000 tons inventory auction, if the successful storage, then the market sentiment will cause further pressure.

According to ANRPC’s latest forecast, this year in addition to Indonesia, the main producing countries are expected to increase the main production, the annual supply of large probability loose. The recent Thai-producing areas gradually cut, the domestic production area will also be fully into the tapping period, the future supply side will gradually heavy volume.

Free trade in bonded areas increased

As of early May, Qingdao Bonded Area inventory totaled 249,800 tons, compared with mid-April increased by 29,700 tons, an increase of 13.49%. Since mid-February, bonded area stocks began to show a rapid upward trend, the cumulative cumulative rate of nearly 5 years since the fastest, and the growth rate did not slow down the trend. This is mainly the tire factory inventory at a high level, pre-demand is a lot of overdraft, the current new orders less, some factories began to take the initiative to reduce the operating rate, slow down the consumption of raw materials. And in November last year after the domestic natural rubber imports increased significantly in April this year, imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber 58 million tons; January-April imports of 235 tons, up 30.3% over the same period last year. The current upstream and downstream industry chain stocks are at a high level, in a large number of imports and inventory consumption in the context of slow, is expected to continue to rise in the bonded area inventory.

Heavy truck sales are high or difficult to maintain

1 – April China’s heavy truck market to achieve sales of 387,000, an increase of 79.64%. This year, heavy truck sales soared for the following four reasons: First, since the fourth quarter of last year, the manufacturing industry to enter a new round of inventory cycle, coal and other commodities and upstream raw materials make up the logistics makes the demand for logistics and transportation, , Driven by heavy truck production and sales of rapid growth. Second, in August last year, the new national standard promulgated, significantly reduced the maximum load of the semi-trailer, which brought new capacity demand to stimulate heavy truck sales. Third, this year will become the infrastructure year, the provinces and cities in the fixed assets investment is expected to be more than 60 trillion yuan, and a large number of projects started at the beginning of the year, March and April are the peak of heavy truck sales. Fourth, last year, heavy truck sales surge makes some car prices difficult to complete orders on time, so part of the sales arrangements at the beginning of this year.

But heavy truck sales high growth or difficult to maintain. First of all, with the passage of time, last year’s rule of the New Deal brought about by the marginal effect will gradually weaken, in the relevant order gradually completed, follow-up logistics heavy truck is stable growth is still doubt. The second half of the beginning of the excess pressure will gradually appear, and since mid-January, China’s road logistics and freight index continued downward trend, while oil prices all the way up, has risen to 7,000 yuan / ton of the year high, heavy truck costs Overloaded freight will also drag some heavy truck sales. Finally, from the historical sales point of view, China’s heavy truck market sales over the years was “N” shape, March for the annual highs. April China’s heavy truck sales chain has been 10.2% decline in the second half if no new policy stimulus, sales will be more optimistic.

In short, in the absence of favorable subject matter to stimulate the case, Hujiao center of gravity will be further dropping.

April-May Shandong propylene market price was a “V” -shaped trend, so far, Shandong propylene market price has been stable at 6800-6850 yuan / ton, compared with the lowest point rose 600 yuan / ton, or 9.64%.

From the supply side, the current volume of propylene in Shandong is less, Shandong region itself is a shortage of the status quo, the current Yangshi Hengtong and a PDH device is still in a shutdown state, the region itself to reduce the supply of propylene, part of the downstream increase in Local refinery shipments; outside the plate propylene upside down, manufacturers to reduce imports, external supply shortage. In the case of reduced merchandise, refinery inventory low, the seller is quite strong intention, then the propylene can always be strong?

Since mid-April the international crude oil prices have been in the downward trend. Crude oil prices fell, but propylene prices began to rebound to the present trend is stable, indicating that crude oil for the propylene market price guide is weak, but still bearish market.

From the downstream market point of view, the downstream demand for propylene has been in a downturn in the state, the enthusiasm for the procurement of propylene is not high, especially polypropylene powder, by the weak demand for terminal, polypropylene powder operating rate has been maintained at 6 Into the left and right, compared with previous years at a low level. According to the operating rate of propylene downstream of last week statistics, the rate of operating rate of octoxyphenol device decreased, it is understood that in May, Shandong part of the octanol device maintenance, for the procurement of propylene demand has decreased.

Through the upstream and downstream look to the market outlook, the supply side, the end of the early parking device will continue to drive, imports of propylene will also add a certain degree to the market, propylene supply will increase; in demand, the downstream polypropylene powder is now approaching costs Line, some powder manufacturers have been forced to stop the risk of propylene rose a certain degree of difficulty. Expected demand will continue to be the main factor affecting the trend of the propylene market, Shandong propylene market, the mainstream price is slightly lower expected, is expected to be limited.

“Intelligent manufacturing is the inevitable direction of the development of enterprises, but also an important way out of the traditional industries out of the predicament.” This is the reporter from the twenty-fourth session of the national phosphate fertilizer industry meeting to get the information. April 26 held in Jinan, the meeting, how to smart implantation of phosphate fertilizer industry, to enhance the industrial competitive advantage were discussed.

“To adhere to the development of intelligent manufacturing as the industry focus, the establishment of R & D design, logistics procurement, production control, security supervision, management, marketing and other industrial chain intelligent system to encourage enterprises to carry out ‘Internet + agriculture’ The level of service, to achieve supply and demand coordination. “Ministry of Industry and Materials Division Petrochemical Deputy Director Zhang Fan said.

China Phosphorus Compound Fertilizer Industry Association, said Zhou Chuan Ye, with cloud computing, large data analysis and application as the representative of a new generation of information technology rapid development, has been widely penetrated into all aspects of the industry. “Although smart manufacturing requires a lot of manpower, capital, technology investment, but it is for the enterprise’s safety, environmental protection, energy conservation have greatly improved, this is an inevitable trend.” Lubon Industry Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager Ye Huili said.

Zhu Jianwei, vice president of the School of Chemical and Energy, Zhengzhou University, said that we urgently need to inject new development momentum into the production and service of the phosphate and compound fertilizer industry. New era of phosphorus and fertilizer industry, new problems and new contradictions, can only rely on technological innovation, the development of new formats, to increase the new kinetic energy to better solve.

According to the analysis, the production process, the phosphorus compound fertilizer industry is the process of raw materials processing industry, the intelligent manufacturing model is intelligent optimization of manufacturing, you can start from three aspects: First, the use of “Internet +” thinking, breaking the factory and research and development range But also from the market to accept feedback from the market, to carry out innovation-driven product design and production process; Second, the phosphate and fertilizer production system scheduling and decision-making function should be to improve production efficiency, reduce production costs, save energy and reduce pollution as the basis, Third, the industrial Internet as the key infrastructure, with large data as the core driving force, strengthen the network, distributed intelligent production optimization control facilities and collection and transmission network construction.

Tang Jianwei that the current differentiation of phosphate and fertilizer products and service competition has become an important way to enhance the competitive advantage, and demand heterogeneity has become an inexhaustible motive force for industrial development. Intelligent manufacturing to meet this demand laid the foundation. First, build a connection with the production process, service-oriented operating platform and interactive network to support and cover the Internet from the production of raw materials to the use of raw materials to purchase the entire process of the entire intelligent factory. Second, vigorously develop based on information technology, digital technology, network technology support the precision of agricultural systems. Third, the intelligent manufacturing so that the production of phosphate and compound fertilizer and agricultural services integration can be achieved, the actual one, two, three industry integration derived from the “sixth industry” emerging form of expression.

Experts said that the Chinese phosphorus and compound fertilizer enterprises only as soon as possible to accelerate the transition to the intelligent direction in order to resolve the current China’s phosphate and fertilizer industry is facing many difficulties to complete the “Phoenix Nirvana” rebirth, to promote China’s traditional industry The new spring comes.

In early May, crude oil hit, oil prices fell all the way down, as of May 4 closing WTI to 45.52 US dollars / barrel, Brent to 48.38 US dollars / barrel, a single day decline of nearly 5%. May the first week of the domestic black futures led the decline in bulk chemical futures fell, the commodity market sentiment worsened. In the environment and international energy are released under the guidance of bad, ethylene glycol thriving, out of the first week of May exclusive eye-catching market.

From the beginning of the disk in early May, electronic futures futures in the low shocks, the decline has been more obvious from March to April contraction, and from the MACD K line analysis, the end of April to early May has been negative by the positive Value, the market bulls in the recovery increased, shortening significantly reduced contraction. But this only represents the market trend in early May.

According to industry information revealed that the second quarter of 2017, a chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang completed the merger of the two factories merged, involving polyester upstream and downstream industries, in order to speed up the acquisition of Zhejiang chemical downstream of the start of the progress, in early May on the ethylene glycol raw materials Carried out sweep goods procurement, the market a lot of buying to boost the long atmosphere, which is good news in early May ethylene glycol. In addition, according to market sources, in early May ethylene glycol futures market again to discuss the futures market news once again boost the market fermentation, which is good news in early May ethylene glycol two. Comprehensive news side of the positive boost, in early May ethylene glycol in the bulk of the situation, still able to maintain a strong upward trend is imperative. However, the positive news of the message may only maintain a relatively short period of boost, in the domestic bulk Pudie and the impact of the international energy crash in the upper reaches of the chemical futures market in May weak tone, ethylene glycol market fear of drought.

Long line to see, ethylene glycol still need to focus on bulk, fundamental news. Oil prices fell badly bullish market, but the current high price of ethylene in ethylene, ethylene ethylene glycol has been facing the highest loss during the year, from the cost point of view, ethylene glycol continued to fall the space is limited, rebound repair obvious. May there is still a large factory in accordance with the planned maintenance, supply on the existence of tight expectations, good late ethylene glycol trend. Comprehensive view, oil prices, bulk, supply performance long and short game, ethylene glycol rebound opportunity, but the trend of reversal is poor, especially in early May of the strong rebound, may be in the bulk of the pressure in the late to take. Analysis of the current rational control of the proposed position, in a large bearish situation short time catch up.

Enter the value of investment range

Since mid-February, plastic futures continued to adjust to the commodity market, as of April 24, plastic futures 1709 contract fell to 8525 yuan / ton, compared with mid-February fell 2145 yuan / ton, the end of 2015, the rate of increase Fell 60%. We believe that in the 8500 yuan / ton value of the investment range, the plastic market, bullish factors are gradually accumulating.

PVA 

The financial sector to leverage the impact of commodities weakened

Since the end of last year, in order to cope with the real estate and financial sector bubble, the central bank in the case of economic growth has taken a tight tight monetary policy, the stock market and commodity markets weak down. We believe that the central bank’s main task this year is to prevent risks and financial areas to leverage and encourage funds to the real situation, regulators do not want to see the financial sector, financial constraints on the physical business have a negative impact, with the central bank to take the initiative to market flow As well as the central bank level position does not want the market overshoot, the financial sector is expected to leverage the negative impact on commodities weakened.

pva fiber

Crude oil prices are expected to support fluctuations by rising prices

The recent panic of the Saudi prince on the crude oil market led to a significant decline in oil prices, but the early May oil market oscillation adjustment is conducive to the May 25 OPEC oil-producing countries to extend the agreement, so as to the second half of the crude oil market supply and demand balance to provide a solid Guarantee. In addition, from a global perspective, is currently in the seasonal off-season consumption of crude oil, but June-August global consumption of crude oil demand will increase by 2 million barrels / day level, the US crude oil consumption has also entered the seasonal Consumption season, the United States continued record high new commercial crude oil inventories will peaked down, high inventory of oil prices will gradually weaken the role of pressure, with the late May oil producer to extend the expected further warming, is expected to continue international oil prices Fluctuate up.

Plastic market supply contraction is expected to be thicker

April to May, Petrochemical has entered the seasonal maintenance cycle, and into May, Qilu Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. have greater efforts to overhaul the program, which will exacerbate the domestic supply of LLDPE market contraction expectations. New equipment, the transit of the two PE equipment to build the main production of LDPE, LDPE and LLDPE spread is still relatively high, LDPE new production capacity of the impact of the linear market is limited.

From the import market point of view, foreign new PE device plans to put into operation in the second half and probabilistically delayed to the fourth quarter or 2018 years. And the current plastic market, the internal and external disk prices continue to rise in the upside down situation, and since February the plastic market downturn is not conducive to the release of the enthusiasm of traders import, 5-6 months is still the traditional import off-season, is expected in the second quarter of plastic imports A quarter will be a sharp decline.

From the demand point of view, the current demand for agricultural film film is basically over, only part of the factory according to the order of sporadic production, and the overall demand for packaging film in the weak, but the continued decline in the plastic market after the Spring Festival to suppress the release of some terminal needs, and the terminal Raw material inventory at a relatively low level, when the plastic spot price fell to 8500 yuan / ton since the end of 2015 since the low level, the latter part of the supply reduction is expected to stimulate the plastic downstream enterprises get goods enthusiasm.

PVA 1788 (BP17)

Petrochemical stability will help trade links to inventory

After the May Day, petrochemical stocks accumulated to 87.5 million tons of medium level; delivery warehouse receipts for 203, at the same time in the history of low level, in view of the main 1709 contract flat water spot, the late futures market warehouse receipts pressure The On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, traders imported a large number of long-term cargo, but in the continued decline in the market, one after another to the port of imports more difficult to digest, which prompted the domestic plastic port stocks continue to run at high levels, trade Links take goods poor, petrochemical to inventory effect is not ideal. But with the petrochemical installation in May to increase the intensity of the increase and the late imports of the reduction is expected in the current 8500 yuan / ton line of market prices, petrochemical prices and confidence will be significantly strengthened, the late petrochemical prices to promote steady And drive the terminal enterprises to take the initiative to make up the probability of inventory is too large, which will help the trade links to inventory.

On the whole, with the financial sector to leverage the impact of the negative effects of commodity bad impact weakened, and the plastic market to gradually reduce the supply of late, plastic futures or oscillation strong operation.

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