According to oil and gas pipeline news, OPEC’s oil production declined slightly in February due to production cuts in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but increased production in Libya and Angola offset this impact.

In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said oil production averaged 30.55 million barrels a day in February, down by 221,000 barrels from last month.

OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed last year to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day for six months starting next January to reduce oil inventories and support crude oil prices.

According to the report, OPEC crude oil demand is expected to reach 30.5 million barrels a day in 2019, 1.1 million barrels a day lower than the 2018 forecast.

“The slowdown in global economic growth is also expected to reduce oil demand to some extent in 2019,” OPEC said in its report. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.24 million barrels a day this year, down from 1.43 million barrels a day last year.

According to the statistics released by the Committee of Statistics, Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s coal production continued to grow after 2019, with coal production in January 2019 reaching 10.105 million tons, an increase of 4.0% over the same period last year.

According to Dow Jones, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said at the Cambridge Energy Anniversary Conference in Houston that OPEC expects global oil demand to increase to 112 million barrels a day by 2040. “We don’t see any signs of oil demand peaking,” he said. Barkindo called on the oil industry to invest more to meet demand growth.

On March 11, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 12th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1550 yuan/ton on the 12th day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3093.33 yuan/ton on the 12th day. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream market is not good. They expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period will decrease slightly.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of March 11 was 6850 yuan/ton (including tax). At present, the mainstream domestic price of n-butanol is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, which is 2.38% lower than that of last Friday.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The overall supply and demand of n-butanol is balanced, some factories have continuously lowered prices, the downstream is in a wait-and-see state, the raw propylene rebounds, and the transaction is expected to improve. Today, the price of n-butanol in East China is 7250 yuan/ton, and the price of n-butanol in South China is 7400 yuan/ton, all of which are down by 100 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: It is expected that the n-butanol market will maintain stable operation today.