China’s domestic methanol market continued to be weak on April 23

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 23, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2232 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market continued to decline.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol shows a differentiated trend, the mainland continues to be weak. In the port market, the future-present linkage is dominant, with futures rising first and then depressing, the overall slightly upward. The overall performance of the mainland market is weak. At present, the downstream receipt intention is weak and has not improved. The local decline is 20-100 yuan/ton. With the end of the Northwest part of the equipment maintenance, it is expected that the supply side will increase in the later period, and the intra-site profit will be more hollow. It is expected that the mainland market will remain weak in the short term. We should pay more attention to the changes of equipment in the main production areas and the transmission of Northwest guidance prices to the surrounding markets.

In terms of freight, the domestic freight of methanol has recently been sorted out, showing a decline in many places. The freight rate of Inner Mongolia North Line to North Shandong refers to 110-200 yuan/ton, falling by 20-30 yuan/ton, and that of South Line to North Shandong 120-200 yuan/ton. Part of Shanxi Province is 110-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and reference from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong Province is 90-150 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province is 140-160 yuan/ton. Qinghai to North Shandong 280-320 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: methanol raw material is weak, the cost is weak; under security supervision, formaldehyde construction in the lower reaches of Shandong Province is still low, formaldehyde market turnover is not good. Now Linyi is around 1,350 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1,500-1,550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market fell at the beginning of the week. Due to the poor overall signing of orders, Henan enterprises have a high sales pressure, and the offer has been markedly downgraded. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market is stable, the market atmosphere is general. The main units have a plan to increase the quantity, and the downstream units purchase more on demand, so the seller’s production and sales are balanced.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the supply side: part of the equipment overhaul in Northwest China has not yet ended, part of the supply side is tight; Futures: the futures market has risen substantially, although it has fallen back, the overall slightly upward. On the negative side, the cost: the price of upstream products such as natural gas and coal is at a low level, and the cost side has declined due to the drop of local freight; on the demand side, the restriction of security supervision on some downstream demand is still in existence at the present stage; on the later stage, the maintenance devices are gradually restored, and the supply side is expected to increase, so the contradiction between supply and demand is gradually highlighted. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market in the short term is relatively weak.