Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
The fundamental characteristics of aluminum ingots in July are as follows:
Aluminum ingot production capacity first decreased and then increased in July
From the perspective of operating capacity, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at the end of June was about 43.83 million tons. Due to a slight decrease in capacity replacement, the industry’s operating rate declined month on month. The monthly output was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of about 3.2% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In July, the Yunnan replacement project was put into operation, and the overall operating capacity remained at a high level. Due to adjustments in production capacity replacement projects in some regions, there was a brief contraction in early production. However, with the gradual implementation of new projects in July, the overall production capacity supply has resumed its growth trend. For example, the newly launched projects in Yunnan gradually released production capacity in July, increasing the supply of electrolytic aluminum in the market and creating potential downward pressure on prices. This dynamic change in production capacity, which first decreases and then increases, affects the market’s expectations for aluminum ingot supply.
The impact of excess pressure on upstream core raw material alumina
Aluminum oxide, as the core raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, was significantly affected by oversupply pressure in the aluminum ingot market in July. The recovery of industry profits has led to the release of alumina production capacity to historical highs, and domestic production continues to rebound. Due to the abundant supply of alumina, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable and even has room for decline, which also gives electrolytic aluminum enterprises the motivation to increase production to a certain extent. Moreover, the issue of tight delivery capacity in Xinjiang is expected to ease in August. This expectation began to suppress market speculation on alumina and related aluminum products in July, resulting in a lack of support for raw material speculation in the rise of aluminum ingot prices. Against the backdrop of an oversupply of alumina, the stability of the aluminum ingot market supply has been enhanced, further suppressing the upward potential of prices.
Downstream demand is relatively weak
In July, it was the traditional off-season for consumption, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises generally declined. From the perspective of the aluminum processing industry, the weekly aluminum production rate has shown a downward trend, especially in categories such as aluminum plates and strips. During the off-season, market demand is sluggish, downstream enterprises’ orders decrease, and the purchase volume of aluminum ingots also decreases accordingly. In order to control costs and reduce inventory backlog, enterprises often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement, resulting in average spot transactions of aluminum ingots and low market activity. When downstream enterprises face high aluminum prices, their willingness to accept orders is seriously insufficient, further weakening the market demand for aluminum ingots and forming a downward driving force on prices.

Differentiated demand in key downstream industries. In the field of new energy vehicles, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China increased by 15% year-on-year, but decreased by 17% compared to the same period last month, indicating weaker demand compared to the previous month. This indicates that the growth rate of demand for aluminum in the new energy vehicle industry slowed down in July, failing to form strong support for aluminum ingot prices. In the photovoltaic field, the overall output of photovoltaic modules in August showed limited month on month changes, and its driving effect on aluminum demand was also insufficient in July. Despite the overall development stage of the new energy industry, during a specific period in July, the demand for aluminum ingots was difficult to drive up prices due to seasonal factors, market adjustments, and other factors. Instead, weak demand growth intensified downward pressure on prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a V-shaped trend in July. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost support for crude oil fluctuations was limited, and the PTA industry’s capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA showed a weak pattern. But with the recovery of macro sentiment and the firm trend of commodities, the PTA market rebounded weakly due to this impact.
In terms of self supply, PTA has not announced any new equipment maintenance plans for July. The industry has sufficient supply, and there are new equipment tests, which are negative for PTA prices. At present, the PTA load is maintained at around 80%, and it is expected that the PTA plant maintenance will increase in August under low processing costs.
Recently, due to the combined impact of long and short factors, the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is still ongoing, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.51 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry has entered the traditional off-season of consumption, with insufficient orders leading to a weakening of the industry’s bargaining power. Profits are gradually shifting upstream, losses are beginning to expand, and procurement enthusiasm is hindered, maintaining essential procurement. Under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment warming at the end of the month, it stimulated buying sentiment and led to a slight increase in demand.
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the current terminal inventory has been replenished at a low level, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has eased. It is expected that PTA supply and demand will improve in August compared to expectations, but the subsequent supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The overall PTA price still follows the cost side and market sentiment fluctuations.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda remained stable on July 29th, with a market average price of 1253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.61% compared to the same period last year. On July 28th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 83.16, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 64.74% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is temporarily stable and the market is running, and the shipment of enterprises is still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1200-1300 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand driven procurement, it is expected that weak operations will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash is running steadily. The current market average price is 1302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.62% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been stable in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been strong in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (7.22~7.28), the butadiene rubber market has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 28, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from 12110 yuan/ton on July 22. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber is basically stable; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and there is a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. As of July 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11850-12300 yuan/ton.
Recently (7.22~7.28), the price of butadiene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still remains supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 28th, the price of butadiene was 9466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The high point during the cycle was 9583 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 9400 yuan/ton.
Recently (7.22~7.28), the domestic Shunding plant has been operating steadily, at around 6.70%. Some plants are planned to be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, which will alleviate the pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber.
Demand side: Recently (7.22~7.28), the overall stability of downstream tire production has provided essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of July 25th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be supported; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the demand side is just in need of support. With the significant increase in the price of butadiene rubber since July, the downstream is gradually observing the high priced sources of goods, and it is expected that butadiene rubber will face adjustments in the short term.

This week, the fundamentals are still weak, but inventory is still controllable. At the same time, suppliers continue to raise prices, contract demand is stable, and spot buying is still insufficient. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains deadlocked. As of July 25th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8000-8100 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.
There are still expectations of supply growth in the short term:
According to statistics, as of July 24th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 74.77%, a decrease of -1.36% compared to last week. The weekly output was about 81600 tons, a decrease of 1400 tons from the previous cycle.
The fundamentals remain weak, with local inventories continuing to rise, but overall they are still manageable. According to statistics, as of July 23, the sample inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 50600 tons, an increase of+0.16 million tons from last week.
Weakening demand in small and medium-sized downstream sectors:
The capacity utilization rate of the main downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, and the downstream acrylamide industry has seen a decrease in production, resulting in weakened demand in small and medium-sized downstream sectors. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 66.82%, an increase of 0.92% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 68.62%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 45.24%, which was 4.66% higher than last week.
Low volatility of propylene prices:
During the week, the price of propylene fluctuated at a low level, and the weekly production cost of acrylonitrile increased slightly. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8751 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.41%. The average weekly profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -700 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -60 yuan/ton. The production loss situation continues.
Overall, cost support is slightly insufficient, supply is still expected to grow, and downstream demand is weakened. It is expected that the short-term supply and demand relationship of acrylonitrile will continue to be weak, and the market will remain stagnant and weak.