According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a V-shaped trend in July. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost support for crude oil fluctuations was limited, and the PTA industry’s capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA showed a weak pattern. But with the recovery of macro sentiment and the firm trend of commodities, the PTA market rebounded weakly due to this impact.
In terms of self supply, PTA has not announced any new equipment maintenance plans for July. The industry has sufficient supply, and there are new equipment tests, which are negative for PTA prices. At present, the PTA load is maintained at around 80%, and it is expected that the PTA plant maintenance will increase in August under low processing costs.
Recently, due to the combined impact of long and short factors, the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is still ongoing, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.51 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry has entered the traditional off-season of consumption, with insufficient orders leading to a weakening of the industry’s bargaining power. Profits are gradually shifting upstream, losses are beginning to expand, and procurement enthusiasm is hindered, maintaining essential procurement. Under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment warming at the end of the month, it stimulated buying sentiment and led to a slight increase in demand.
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the current terminal inventory has been replenished at a low level, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has eased. It is expected that PTA supply and demand will improve in August compared to expectations, but the subsequent supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The overall PTA price still follows the cost side and market sentiment fluctuations.
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