This week, the fundamentals are still weak, but inventory is still controllable. At the same time, suppliers continue to raise prices, contract demand is stable, and spot buying is still insufficient. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains deadlocked. As of July 25th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8000-8100 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.
There are still expectations of supply growth in the short term:
According to statistics, as of July 24th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 74.77%, a decrease of -1.36% compared to last week. The weekly output was about 81600 tons, a decrease of 1400 tons from the previous cycle.
The fundamentals remain weak, with local inventories continuing to rise, but overall they are still manageable. According to statistics, as of July 23, the sample inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 50600 tons, an increase of+0.16 million tons from last week.
Weakening demand in small and medium-sized downstream sectors:
The capacity utilization rate of the main downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, and the downstream acrylamide industry has seen a decrease in production, resulting in weakened demand in small and medium-sized downstream sectors. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 66.82%, an increase of 0.92% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 68.62%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 45.24%, which was 4.66% higher than last week.
Low volatility of propylene prices:
During the week, the price of propylene fluctuated at a low level, and the weekly production cost of acrylonitrile increased slightly. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8751 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.41%. The average weekly profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -700 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -60 yuan/ton. The production loss situation continues.
Overall, cost support is slightly insufficient, supply is still expected to grow, and downstream demand is weakened. It is expected that the short-term supply and demand relationship of acrylonitrile will continue to be weak, and the market will remain stagnant and weak.
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