Recently (8.1-8.11), the butadiene rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 11th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from 11960 yuan/ton on the first day. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The expected start of production for butadiene rubber has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and there is a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. As of August 11th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11800 to 12200 yuan/ton.
Recently (8.1-8.11), the price of butadiene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still remains supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 11th, the price of butadiene was 9083 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 9050 yuan/ton on the 1st. The high point during the cycle was 9100 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 8916 yuan/ton.
Recently (8.1-8.11), the domestic butadiene rubber plant has started operating at around 6.80%, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase slightly in the short term.
Demand side: Recently (8.1-8.11), the overall stability of downstream tire production has provided essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of August 8th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.20%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.3%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be supported; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the demand side is just in need of support. Some devices are planned to restart this week, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased. However, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is expected that butadiene rubber may fluctuate and rise in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12866/ton, which is stable.
The prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers remained stable this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9000 to 13000 yuan/ton. Due to insufficient coconut supply in the Asian market and increasing demand, the demand for environmentally friendly materials in emerging markets has surged, resulting in high prices for coconut shell activated carbon.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s reduced production of fragrant coconut due to drought and pest infestations, coupled with rising transportation costs, have led to a surge in coconut shell purchase prices. The price of charred coconut shells in Southeast Asia, including taxes, has exceeded 8000 yuan/ton, exacerbating domestic production cost pressures. ‌‌
Prediction: The shortage of raw materials will result in stable transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

The bidding price for hydrogen fluoride in August decreased by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% from the end of July.
Raw material side: The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased this week. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3156.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% compared to the beginning of this month (3137.50 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The rise in fluorite prices has put pressure on the cost of hydrofluoric acid, and there is still pressure for production enterprises to incur losses. The purchasing sentiment for high priced fluorite raw materials is relatively low, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid industry will continue to operate weakly and consolidate.
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has weak terminal demand, low stocking enthusiasm, and mainly purchases upstream products on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will rise, downstream terminal demand will be weak, supply and demand will not be supported by favorable factors, and market trading will be sluggish. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 28th to August 4th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9466.67 yuan/ton to 9050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.4% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently. However, domestic refineries are actively shipping, and overall supply is relatively sufficient. As prices continue to decline, downstream stocks are being replenished at low prices, and market trading conditions are still favorable, with overall demand still leaning towards rigid demand. Lacking substantial positive support, the overall price declined during the week.
Cost wise: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $67.33 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $69.67 per barrel. The market is concerned that OPEC may increase oil production, coupled with US employment data dragging down the demand outlook.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 4th, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has been weakly consolidated. Both Tianjiao and Shunding rubber futures fell, with a small number of urgent inquiries from downstream tire factories, resulting in light market transactions and lower quotes from spot market merchants. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11850-12300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600 to 11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. Recently, some downstream units have restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand side, the overall demand is relatively rigid, and the support on the demand side is limited. Overall, the supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in July saw a consolidation after a decline, and some spot prices of certain brands were lowered. As of July 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14333.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.92% compared to early July.
cause analysis
On the supply side: Since July, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have rebounded after experiencing a decline in load. At the beginning of the month, Sichuan Tianhua, Shengtong Juyuan and other enterprises successively announced their maintenance plans. In the middle of the month, Pingmei Shenma also joined the maintenance queue, and there were six industry load reduction parking devices in the area. However, most of them are short-term parking, and production capacity will fully return in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the industry average operating level returned to 77% of the beginning of the month, and the weekly average output was close to 65000 tons. The on-site supply is abundant, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and the pattern of ample PC supply remains unchanged. After the addition, there is a shortage of maintenance news in the market, and the pressure on shipments has not decreased. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fell and then fluctuated in July. Upstream acetone and phenol also fluctuated at a low level in the middle and upper stages, dragging down spot prices. Although there is a rebound trend in raw materials at the end of the month, bisphenol A is also affected by supply and demand contradictions, with weak demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs. However, with PC prices currently at historically low levels, the easing of cost pressures has also given PC some room for maneuver.
On the demand side: Currently, it is the traditional off-season for PC, with downstream factories experiencing lower loads and weak inventory, mainly due to rigid demand, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders and are resistant to high priced goods. The financial pressure on merchants has increased, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts on actual orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in July. The upstream bisphenol A market stabilized after a decline, providing moderate support for PC cost values. The concession of raw materials has made it difficult for the industry to operate at a high level, and the load of domestic PC aggregation plants has rebounded after falling, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and market benefits are difficult to materialize. Industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. It is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future, but PC prices are already at historical lows, and the downward space may be limited,