Strong supply and weak demand are difficult to change, PC prices fluctuate

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been fluctuating recently, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing mixed ups and downs. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 15500 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.69% compared to the beginning of the month.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter late April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains mainly stable. As of April 22nd, the industry average operating level has slightly increased to 83% compared to the middle of the month. During this period, the weekly average production remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply was very abundant. Manufacturers and midstream inventory positions are relatively high, and shipping pressure continues to be high. The market supply side has weak support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: as can be seen from the figure above, BPA has been adjusted and operated after the price rise recently. Affected by the temporary low point of the industry in the early stage, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the same time, acetone and phenol remain firm after heating up, forming a support for spot goods. However, the price of upstream crude oil in the middle and far ends of the month has been hit by the US tariffs, which has undermined the confidence of industry players in the future. In addition, there has been a recent increase in the workload of some enterprises, which has weakened the positive impact on supply. The dual downstream consumption demand is firmly supported, and overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.
In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has continued to follow the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market have basically remained at the same level as the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, merchants tend to be cautious and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. As the pre holiday stock gradually runs out in the future, the circulation speed of on-site goods is bound to slow down. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In late April, the domestic PC market experienced volatile consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently holding at a high level, with support for PC costs flattening. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The current downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of US tariff policies and crude oil fluctuations has left industry players with unchanged concerns about the future. Market trading has been sluggish as pre holiday stocking gradually comes to an end. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.

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There are significant regional differences in the methanol market situation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2459 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 8.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.25%. The supply of methanol in the coastal market is increasing, but market confidence is insufficient, and the overall port market is still showing a weak trend. Due to the shutdown of some facilities and tight supply in some regions of the mainland methanol market, coupled with low inventory levels of enterprises, traders have a positive attitude towards purchasing goods. Production enterprises have raised prices and shipped goods, resulting in an overall strong operation of the mainland methanol market.
As of the close on April 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2242 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2270 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2242 yuan/ton. It closed at 2266 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.53%. The trading volume is 619316 lots, the position is 670149 lots, and the daily increase is 1504 lots.
In terms of cost, the domestic chemical coal market has been stagnant and falling recently. The coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the overall supply is basically stable. Recently, there have been few coal mines with price adjustments, and the sales situation of each mine varies. Most of the coal prices at the mine mouth remain stable, and the queuing vehicles are average. The production area maintains normal transportation. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream chlorides: Chloride plants operate stably and have increased demand for methanol; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: After the start-up of the dimethyl ether new plant, normal operation is maintained and demand increases. Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 17th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $342.50-343.50 per ton, a decrease of $6 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 92.00-93.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 279.50-280.50 yuan/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the supply from mainland China is expected to be low, port supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is lukewarm. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

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This week, the PET market prices fluctuated at a low level (4.14-18)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) showed a weak oscillation trend of first suppressing and then rising. As of April 18th, the average sales price of PET (PET bottle flakes) was 5685 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, OPEC+production expectations, US sanctions on Iran, and Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports have led to international oil prices falling below the key support level of $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. PTA and ethylene glycol are operating weakly, although PTA processing fees have briefly rebounded to a reasonable range of 325 yuan/ton, the expected increase in new production capacity (4.5 million tons added in 2025) and import recovery are suppressing long-term profit margins. In terms of ethylene glycol, port inventory has risen to a high of 584400 tons, and the operating rate of coal to gas plants has remained above 70%. The loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to change, and price rebound is limited.
In terms of supply and demand: The new production capacity of polyester bottle flakes continues to be released, and the operating rate of production enterprises remains at a high level. The supply will continue to increase. The demand side is unlikely to show significant improvement in the short term, and factors such as slowing global economic growth and environmental policy restrictions will still constrain the demand for bottle tablets. The supply-demand imbalance may continue, suppressing prices.
In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the future price of polyester bottle chips may remain weak and volatile, and there is a lack of strong rebound momentum in the short term. However, if crude oil prices can continue to stabilize and rebound, or if there is an unexpected improvement in demand, the price of polyester bottle chips may rise to a certain extent.

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This week, the epoxy chloropropane market showed an upward trend (4.14-4.17)

This week, the epoxy chloropropane market showed an upward trend (4.14-4.17). According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 17th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.16% compared to early April.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has declined. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 17th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6723.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The spot supply of glycerol based epichlorohydrin in the market is relatively tight, and enterprises have a positive attitude towards raising prices. Overall, the operating rate remains at around 50-60%.
Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market supply remains normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. The overall trading atmosphere has improved, with no inventory pressure and a positive purchasing atmosphere. It is expected that the market will be dominated in the future.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that downstream market demand will improve and traders will have a positive purchasing attitude. It is predicted that the epoxy chloropropane market may continue to show a strong trend in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

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The domestic titanium dioxide market price is temporarily stable this week (4.7-4.11)

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week, with an average price of 15420 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week. The domestic market is sluggish, and titanium dioxide companies face significant shipping pressure and inventory pressure. Downstream market demand is poor, with rigid demand as the main factor, and there is a wait-and-see attitude in the market. Internationally, the impact of this week’s increase in tariffs between China and the United States has also increased pressure on export markets. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14800-16200 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 13200-13400 yuan/ton; The actual transaction price is negotiable.
In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate has remained stable this week. At present, the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is poor, and the downstream market demand is average. The purchasing sentiment is weak, and the focus is mainly on wait-and-see. As of now, the transaction price of 46,10 titanium ore for small and medium-sized manufacturers is between 2060-2100 yuan/ton, the price of 47,20 titanium ore is between 2200-2280 yuan/ton, and the price of 38 titanium ore excluding tax is between 1400-1450 yuan/ton; It is expected that the mainstream titanium mines in the Panxi region will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable this week. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual orders are still cautious. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

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