2025 Butylene Rubber Market Review
2025 domestic butylene rubber throughout the year in a staircase downward trend, the price fell from about 14900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 11575 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a cumulative fall of 22.32% throughout the year.
Pre-festival reserves in January slightly increased to 15466 yuan / ton; February-early April weak fundamental downward to 13916 yuan / ton, April international trade policy mutation industry chain expected pessimistic price quickly fell to 11858 yuan / ton, late April-mid-May international trade policy slightly changed, plus Lanzhou, Hangzhou butylene device parking repair, low price slightly rebounded to 12866 yuan / ton; mid-May-mid-September weak fundamental plus raw material prices fell, overlapping smooth petrochemical parking repair, butylene rubber price first fell after small V-type fluctuations, high at 12866 yuan / ton, low at 1 1750 yuan / ton; mid-September to early November supply abundant weak demand, buffin rubber prices weak down to 10,600 yuan / ton; early November to the end of the year shock rebounded to 11,575 yuan / ton.
Summary of the main factors affecting the market of butylene rubber in 2025: First, the cost side drags on the whole year. In 2025, butylene new production capacity is concentrated, inventory continues to accumulate, and the price center downward drops by 22.84% throughout the year, which directly leads to a reduction in the production cost of butylene rubber. The impact of the slowdown in the growth rate of the automotive industry, inventory pressure has increased significantly, and fundamental support is weak.
Bubble Rubber Market Outlook for 2026
Macroeconomic and commodity markets are affected by the continuation of the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle in 2026, which may lead to an overall recovery in commodities, but the impact of the Fed’s interest rate cuts on different commodities is also different in terms of the cycle and magnitude. In addition, there is a need to be alert to the risk of supply chain disruption due to geopolitics in 2026.
2026 butylene rubber cost stable medium to slightly lower
In 2026, butylene will continue to support the cost of butylene rubber, butylene will weaken, butylene rubber cost center of gravity is stable and slightly lower. On the one hand, butylene as the core raw material of butylene rubber, its price fluctuations directly affect the industry profit space. Historical data show that butylene prices fluctuate by 10%, ESBR production costs change by 8%-12%, and SSBR is more affected by solvent price linkage. Ethylene supply and demand pattern is expected to improve marginally. With the significant reduction of new production capacity, and the supply elasticity adjustment mechanism is more sensitive, the market is expected to gradually transition from excess to balance, styrene price center recovery, there is some support for the cost of butylene rubber.
Steady and moderate increase in the supply of butylene rubber in 2026
In 2026, the proportion of dissolved polybutylene rubber production capacity continues to increase, the proportion of milk polybutylene rubber production capacity continues to decline, and the proportion of dissolved polybutylene rubber production capacity is expected to increase from about 27% in 2025 to a higher level in 2026. This is mainly due to the start-up of new projects by Zhongzhou Group, Shenhua Chemical, Yanshan Petrochemical and other enterprises. In 2026, the production capacity of polybutylene rubber will fall to 73.09%, among which the problem of low and medium-end overcapacity is prominent, and the market competition tends to be fierce.
By 2026, the proportion of demand in new areas for stable and weak traditional butylene rubber will increase
From the perspective of automotive production and sales, China’s automotive production is expected to reach 26-27 million units in 2026, an increase of 4-6% year-on-year. From the perspective of tire production structure, all-steel tire production is expected to grow by 3-4% in 2026 and semi-steel tire production is expected to grow by 5-6%. In the application of tires, its average annual growth rate is expected to exceed 8%. Polybutylene rubber is weak in the stable demand for traditional tires; the demand for components such as automobile shock absorbers, seal bars will grow steadily, but the growth rate is relatively slow due to the impact of infrastructure and real estate cycles; the demand for butylene rubber in the medical field is accelerating due to the aging of the population, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 8%.
Taken as a whole, it is expected that in 2026, the market for butylene rubber will show a slight downward trend between high and low, narrow fluctuations, and the price center, in which the price of polybutylene rubber will fluctuate in the range of 11,500 to 13,500 yuan / ton, which will be affected by the low season and parking repairs and other factors.
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