On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe, the world’s fourth largest lithium producer, suddenly announced an immediate and comprehensive suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, without setting a clear lifting period, only on the premise that domestic mining enterprises complete localized processing and transformation to resume exports. The sudden implementation of this policy has disrupted the original rhythm of the global lithium supply chain, and as the second largest importer of lithium mines in China, the lithium carbonate market has been the first to be impacted. According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of lithium carbonate rose sharply the next day, with a benchmark price of 172000 yuan/ton for battery grade lithium carbonate from Shengyi Society, an increase of 6.17% from the previous day.
Zimbabwe, as the core production area of lithium resources in Africa, is the largest exporter of lithium mines in Africa. In 2025, the country’s lithium concentrate production is equivalent to 150000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, accounting for 12% of the global lithium supply. More than 90% of the export volume flows to China, making it the second largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, second only to Australia. In 2025, China imported a total of 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, of which 1.204 million tons were imported from Zimbabwe, accounting for 15.5%.
Prohibiting the impact of export cycles on the price of lithium carbonate
Short term: emotion driven+supply contraction, price pulse like rise
The short-term impact of this ban mainly comes from the dual effects of unexpected emotions and immediate supply contraction, coupled with limited domestic inventory buffer, which will directly drive up the price of lithium carbonate. From the supply side perspective, the ban covers goods in transit that have already been shipped, causing a complete interruption of individual trading sources for traders. Domestic small and medium-sized lithium salt factories that rely on traders for procurement will face a shortage of raw materials and be forced to reduce production.
The catalytic effect on the emotional side is more significant. The market originally expected Zimbabwe to implement a ban as planned in 2027, and even if it accelerates, it will retain a buffer period. However, the “one size fits all” policy that came into effect immediately completely reversed the market’s expectation of loose lithium ore supply, triggering reluctance and hoarding behavior in the futures and spot markets.
Based on the current market trend, it is predicted that the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate will rise in the short term, but there will not be an extreme surge in 2022. After all, the background of overcapacity in the domestic mid to low end market remains unchanged, and the core supply of top enterprises has not been affected.
Mid term: Gap gradually hedged, prices return to fundamentals
With the cooling of market sentiment and the gradual implementation of supply side hedging factors, the actual impact of Zimbabwe’s export ban will be significantly weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate will gradually return to the supply and demand fundamentals, showing a trend of “rising, falling, and fluctuating”.
Other supply sources quickly fill the gap. As the largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, Australia is expected to increase its lithium concentrate production capacity by 200000 tons in 2026, which can fill the gap in supply for Zimbabwean traders; At the same time, in December 2025, China imported a total of 189000 tons of lithium concentrate from Nigeria and South Africa, accounting for 20% of the total import volume for that month, which can quickly replace Zimbabwe’s bulk supply. In addition, the production capacity of lithium extraction from salt lakes and lithium mica in China continues to climb, and there will still be more than 150000 tons of new production capacity released in 2026, which can further hedge against fluctuations in imported raw materials.
After the market sentiment subsides, the price of lithium carbonate will gradually fall back, showing an overall range oscillation pattern, and it is difficult to see a sustained unilateral upward trend.
Long term: Supply chain restructuring, accelerated increase in industry concentration
The export ban imposed by Zimbabwe is not a policy choice of a single country, but a microcosm of the entire African continent’s efforts to promote the localization and appreciation of mineral resources. For a long time, most African countries have been stuck in the low-end industrial chain of “mining exporting primary raw materials”, and the added value of strategic resources such as lithium and cobalt has been seriously lost. Zimbabwe’s acceleration of policies this time is essentially a competition for the voice of the lithium industry chain, transforming from a “raw material supplier” to a “processing producer”. This trend will reconstruct the global lithium supply chain pattern in the long run.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that this incident will strengthen the relatively strong pattern of the lithium carbonate market in the short term, and the upward space of the market driven by emotions will be opened up. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.
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