According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after a slight rebound in formic acid prices in mid January, the domestic formic acid market has shown a stable horizontal consolidation trend in recent days, with mainstream transaction prices continuing to stabilize at 2350 yuan/ton without significant fluctuations. The core feature of this stage of the market is the dynamic game between supply and demand, where the expected maintenance on the supply side interacts with the demand side’s urgent support before the holiday, jointly promoting price stability. The industry as a whole presents a stable operating pattern of “quantity reduction and price stability”.
The supply side is the core variable that affects the market during this cycle
From January 27th to January 29th, the core focus of the market was on the maintenance plan of a major production facility in Liaocheng. At that time, the facility had not yet started maintenance and was only in the expected maintenance stage, but this expectation had already formed effective support for the market. During this period, the overall market shipment rate remained at a moderate level, and industry inventory was also in the median range. A reasonable inventory and shipment rhythm laid the foundation for stable prices.
On January 30th, the expected maintenance officially landed, and a factory in Liaocheng launched a 100000 ton formic acid plant maintenance, resulting in a substantial reduction in market supply and a tightening of the supply side becoming an established fact; On February 2nd, the impact of maintenance continued to be released, and the overall market supply further contracted. However, due to the industry inventory being at a median level in the early stage and the continued effectiveness of production reduction and price protection policies, the gap caused by supply reduction was partially offset by reasonable inventory, which did not cause market supply tension or drive upward price fluctuations.
Demand side, ‘rigid demand driven, limited incremental’
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally tend to be cautious in their procurement mentality, abandoning the previous wait-and-see attitude and shifting to an on-demand procurement model, mainly focusing on rigid procurement to meet immediate production needs. There has been no large-scale pre holiday stocking behavior, and the market procurement intensity is relatively stable. From the overall performance of downstream industries, traditional demand areas for formic acid such as feed, leather, and printing and dyeing are in a seasonal off-season, with a production rate of less than 60% and limited consumer digestion capacity. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical and chemical industries only maintain a small amount of essential procurement, which cannot form substantial driving force for the market.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity may further decline, and downstream enterprise procurement demand is likely to continue to be dominated by rigid demand. On the supply side, the maintenance of the main equipment in Liaocheng is still ongoing, and the market supply will remain in a contracted state, making it difficult to break the supply-demand balance pattern in the short term. It is expected that the domestic formic acid market will continue its sideways consolidation trend in the short term, and the mainstream price will remain around 2350 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride rose in January. As of January 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 5262.50 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 2.93% from 5112.50 yuan/ton on January 1st.
In terms of supply: In mid to early January, the maleic anhydride market saw a narrow adjustment, with Wanhua’s auction prices falling and the transaction situation being average. This limited support for the maleic anhydride market, coupled with downstream digestion of early raw material orders, resulted in limited new orders being signed; In late January, with the low price of maleic anhydride, there were limited and closed trading operations in the main production areas, and the spot market tightened, which was favorable for the maleic anhydride market. Wanhua’s auction improved, and the transaction price continued to rise, leading to an increase in the maleic anhydride market. As of January 30th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 5000 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In January, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong continued to rise. On January 1st, the price was 5268.67 yuan/ton; On January 30th, the price was 6186.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.42% from the beginning of the month. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has increased, driving confidence in the domestic pure benzene market and encouraging buying. Pure benzene prices continue to rise. Shandong Pure Benzene Refinery is boosted by the rise in oil prices, boosting confidence and leading to a wide range of price increases. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China has remained stable at 6000 yuan/ton, and will be implemented on January 28th.
The n-butane market fluctuated upward in January, and the Saudi CP price continued to rise by $20 to $540/ton in February. The naphtha market in January first fell and then rose, and as of January 30th, the n-butane price in Shandong was around 4520 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market rose in January, with prices of maleic anhydride and styrene on the raw material side increasing and supported by costs; But the downstream industry has poor order volume, with a focus on essential procurement. At the end of the month, downstream vehicles will gradually stop for holidays, making it difficult to actively stock up and purchase goods. Many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards resin price increases, and there will be no significant improvement before the Spring Festival holiday. Trading volume is unlikely to increase significantly.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, the main downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride will gradually shut down and take a break, resulting in a gradual decrease in demand for maleic anhydride; At present, the stock delivery of maleic anhydride factories is still tight, and there is no pressure to sign orders at the moment; Wanhua’s auction transactions have improved, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will experience narrow fluctuations in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 30th, the price of lead 1 # was 16735 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.65% compared to the lead price of 17051 yuan/ton on January 26th.
This week’s market analysis
Recently, the overall lead price has shown a fluctuating downward trend, which is mainly influenced by the weak performance of both supply and demand sides as well as macro market sentiment.
supply side
Reduction of smelting production
Affected by environmental policies, some lead smelting enterprises in central and eastern China have reduced production by 30%, and some enterprises have even stopped production directly. This situation has led to a tightening trend on the supply side in some areas, which has eased the pressure of lead ingot inventory backlog to a certain extent. However, overall, the supply of lead is still relatively loose.
Blocked supply of raw materials
The waste battery market is currently facing a shortage of supply, which has affected the raw material supply of recycled lead enterprises and reduced the amount of raw material arrivals. As a result, some recycled lead companies have chosen to enter the holiday ahead of schedule, which further suppresses the supply of lead.
Demand side
The demand for batteries in the electric bicycle field is showing a weak trend, and lead-acid battery companies have serious inventory backlog of finished products. The willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival is low, with only a small amount of rigid demand procurement.
Exports are facing pressure due to changes in overseas tariff policies, resulting in a decline in export orders and overall weak performance on the demand side.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, lead prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with supply side production cuts providing some support for prices. However, weak demand and inventory pressure still constrain the rebound space. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and we need to be vigilant about the further impact of the double decline in supply and demand on market sentiment.

In January 2026, the domestic phenol market broke away from its weak performance at the beginning of the month and showed a broad upward trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and continuing to rise”, becoming a highlight of the chemical market at the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the mainstream quotation in East China has risen from 5750 yuan/ton on January 1st to 6250 yuan/ton on January 29th, with a cumulative increase of about 8.7% for the whole month. The significant changes in supply and demand, cost, and industrial chain linkage have driven the price to achieve a phased breakthrough.
This month, the phenol market has been mainly driven by “inventory digestion cost drive tight supply and demand balance”, gradually strengthening overall. At the beginning of the month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port exceeded 21000 tons, and imported goods were concentrated at the port. Holders of goods offered discounts, and the market slightly declined; In the middle of the month, the price increase of raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene has raised costs, led by price adjustments by leading companies such as Sinopec. Coupled with the reduction of equipment load, lower than expected imports, and downstream pre holiday inventory replenishment, the quotation has risen to 6000-6250 yuan/ton, and supply and demand have shifted towards a tight balance; Factories continue to increase prices, downstream bisphenol A linkage strengthens, trading is active, and prices accelerate upward.
Cost side support: The dual raw materials of pure benzene and propylene have risen strongly simultaneously, forming a rigid support. Pure benzene prices rose from 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 9500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, driven by international crude oil fluctuations, domestic styrene plant destocking exceeding expectations, and demand recovery; Due to the maintenance of multiple PDH units in Shandong region, there is a temporary shortage in the supply of propylene, and the quotation has increased synchronously. Phenol ketone enterprises have continuously raised their ex factory prices of phenol to alleviate production cost pressures, becoming the core driving force behind the upward trend in market prices.
Supply and demand pattern reversal: Supply contraction and demand recovery form a two-way support, driving supply and demand from loose to tight balance. On the supply side, mainstream phenolic ketone enterprises in China have arranged maintenance before the Spring Festival in advance, and some units have reduced their load operation, resulting in a decrease in effective production capacity release. In addition, the arrival of imported goods at the port is lower than expected, and the total market supply continues to shrink; On the demand side, downstream bisphenol A and phenolic resins are driven by the demand for pre holiday replenishment of epoxy resin, resulting in a steady increase in demand for essential goods. Coupled with the periodic hoarding behavior of traders, this further amplifies demand and lays the foundation for price increases.
The decline in port inventory and the increasing willingness to raise prices have consolidated the upward channel for prices. With continuous shipments, port inventory has fallen from 21000 tons at the beginning of the month to below 15000 tons, establishing a tight supply-demand balance pattern. The willingness of suppliers to lower prices has significantly weakened, and there is a strong sentiment of reluctance to sell at high prices. The price adjustment behavior of leading enterprises continues to boost market confidence, and the demand for pre holiday stocking in the terminal market is released in stages. The continuous support of essential transactions in the market, coupled with the amplification of traders’ hoarding sentiment, forms a virtuous cycle and helps prices steadily rise.
In the short term, the phenol market is expected to remain volatile at a high level from the end of January to before the Spring Festival. The tight supply and demand of pure benzene, high crude oil prices, and low inventory levels will provide favorable support, making it difficult for prices to fall significantly. However, there is potential pressure from the decline in terminal production, shrinking demand, and expectations of import to port and plant resumption after the holiday. There is a risk of a pullback after the holiday; It is recommended that traders prioritize realizing profits, controlling inventory, and downstream enterprises replenish small quantities as needed, without blindly hoarding goods. Pay attention to the opportunity for price correction after the holiday.

Price trend: The market is showing a unilateral downward trend (1.17-1.28)
In the second half of January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market continued to decline and accelerated its bottoming out due to abundant supply. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7% during the period.
Core contradiction: The intensification of the loose supply and demand pattern is the main cause of the decline. The release of new production capacity, coupled with weak demand for downstream electrolytes and inventory in traditional fields, has led to a continuous increase in market inventory pressure.
Core driving factors
1. Supply side (strong bearish): Capacity increase and high operating rate coexist
Continuous release of new production capacity: On January 13th, the 200000 tons/year dimethyl carbonate plant in Hubei began to release products to the market. This is the most crucial supply increment of the current period, completely changing market supply and demand expectations.
High load operation of existing facilities: Against the backdrop of high industry production capacity, major facilities continue to operate at high loads without large-scale maintenance plans, exacerbating the pressure on spot supply.
Proactive destocking by enterprises: Faced with the Spring Festival holiday and bearish expectations, manufacturers and holders have a strong willingness to accelerate destocking and offer discounts before the holiday, and the proactive price reduction behavior has amplified the price drop.
2. Demand side (weak support): The main downstream procurement has slowed down comprehensively
Electrolyte demand falls short of expectations: Electrolyte companies have collapsed due to lower than expected growth in terminal battery demand and a shift in stocking focus towards raw materials such as lithium carbonate, resulting in rigid small order purchases of dimethyl carbonate.
Traditional downstream replenishment and closure: Traditional downstream industries such as polycarbonate and coatings have basically completed replenishment before the Spring Festival. Although the supply and demand in the PC industry have improved in the medium and long term, the short-term production has been stable with a slight decrease due to the impact of holidays and macro environment, resulting in poor stocking enthusiasm for the raw material dimethyl carbonate.
The mentality of buying up and not buying down: After the downward trend of prices becomes clear, downstream investors generally hold onto the currency and wait for lower prices, resulting in a lighter actual trading volume in the market.
3. Cost side (limited support): raw material fluctuations and profit contraction
Epoxy propane: With a price drop of 5.02%, it is one of the main raw materials for DMC. Its weakening directly weakens the cost support of DMC, coupled with the narrowing profit of EO/PO ester exchange method, and the increased willingness of enterprises to reduce prices and reduce inventory.
Methanol: The price has increased by 3.08%, but the proportion of methanol in DMC raw materials is relatively low, and the decline in epoxy propane is greater, so the overall cost side still shows a weak pattern.
Dimethyl ether: The price remains stable and has no significant impact on the cost of DMC.
4、 Short term outlook
Overall, it is expected that the dimethyl carbonate market will maintain a pattern of “weak stability, stalemate, and low volatility” before the Spring Festival.
Before the holiday (until early February): With downstream factories and logistics gradually shutting down, the market will enter a state of “price but no market”, and transactions will be extremely light. Under the dual pressure of sufficient supply and demand vacuum, prices are unlikely to rebound and are expected to consolidate at a low level at the current position.

Key turning point after the holiday (late February): The turning point of the market depends on the pace of downstream resumption of work after the holiday. If downstream demand can recover as scheduled in late February, and at the same time, whether the supply side can undergo spring centralized maintenance to hedge against new production capacity, it will be the key to whether prices can stop falling and stabilize. It is necessary to closely monitor the start-up plan of the main production facilities.