According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and consolidated in August, with most brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of September 1st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7180 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of August.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the first half of August, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe gradually eased from tension, and market concerns about unstable crude oil supply eased. At the same time, OPEC+production expectations became clear, and negative factors in international oil prices continued. In the latter half of the year, the trend of propane followed the decline of crude oil, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises continued to weaken. The supply of propylene was first tight and then loose, and the price rose slightly before being hindered. In addition, the general follow-up of downstream demand may drag down the future market trend. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials provide average cost support.
Supply side:
The operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained stable and slightly increased in August. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry has increased by 3% to 80% compared to early August, with an average weekly total output of nearly 810000 tons in recent weeks. In the latter half of the year, the first and second lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jingbo Polyolefin will resume work successively, coupled with the approaching production of the 900000 ton new production line in Daxie, Ningbo. The trend of loose market supply is clear, which seriously limits the support from the supply side. At present, the on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level has slightly decreased to below 770000 tons, which is relatively controllable. Overall, the support for spot prices from the PP supply side has not improved, and it may continue to exert pressure on the market in the first half of September.
In terms of demand:
In August, polypropylene is in the transition period between peak and off peak seasons. As the end of the month approaches, market players are looking forward to and preparing for a surge in PP demand. However, the trading atmosphere in the field remained light. Merchants have started stocking up slowly, and new orders on site still tend to be mainly scattered small orders and contract deliveries. The improvement of source liquidity is limited. The median load of downstream enterprises has slightly increased, and there is a potential willingness to build warehouses in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture. At the same time, there are macro guidance on supply side reforms and other news, and the market has solid bottoming forces. It is recommended to closely monitor the downstream construction dynamics.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated weakly in August. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is weak, and the overall support for PP is weakened. The industry load is high, stable, and slightly rising, and there is a short-term expectation of loose supply in the future. In terms of consumption, it is at the junction of peak and off peak seasons. The current market is waiting for a surge in consumption, with a hidden atmosphere of seasonal speculation. At the same time, the global central bank meeting released strong macro expectations, and it is expected that the PP peak season market will start in the second half of September.

Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
Macro news
International: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, and the decline in the US dollar index supports commodities, but the US consumer confidence index in August fell to 97.4 (recession risk still exists), dragging down industrial sentiment; Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia’s temporary ban on selling gasoline for cars in September have intensified market uncertainty.
Domestically, Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies (lifting purchase restrictions and increasing housing provident fund loan quotas) to boost demand for aluminum profiles and building templates; However, from January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the momentum of consumer recovery was relatively weak.
Industry fundamentals news
(1) Supply and demand and inventory
Supply: The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50000 tons within this year).
Demand: Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, with aluminum rod processing fees rising to 190 yuan/ton and aluminum rod outbound volume of 62400 tons. However, the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry is only 50.5%, and orders for automotive and photovoltaic profiles have decreased. The weak demand in the photovoltaic industry still poses pressure.
Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 610000 tons (an increase of 7000 tons compared to August 25th), the social inventory of aluminum rods is 136200 tons (an increase of 1300 tons), and the LME aluminum ingot inventory is 4812500 tons (an increase of 3175 tons). The trend of inventory depletion has slowed down, and the pressure has increased.
(2) Cost end
The average spot price of alumina is 3235 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with light trading volume); The price of pre baked anode is 4913 yuan/ton (unchanged); The average price of Q5500 thermal coal is 571 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton), and the overall cost support is relatively neutral.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated and stabilized in August. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 7550 yuan/ton, and on August 28th, the price was 7550 yuan/ton, with no fluctuations during the cycle, a decrease of 25.43% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The aniline market fluctuated in the first half of August and returned to stability in the second half. At the beginning of the month, with low inventory levels in enterprises, mainstream manufacturers collectively raised prices by 300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price rose to 7800-7900 yuan/ton. Subsequently, downstream gas buying fell, trading volume decreased, and aniline prices were lowered by 100 yuan/ton. With the rise in prices, downstream market entry is cautious, and there are many small businesses, resulting in poor sales for manufacturers. The market atmosphere is deadlocked, and factories are lowering prices to stimulate sales. In late August, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated and rose, with increased cost support. The price of aniline remained firm, and the stable market continued until the end of the month.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in August, influenced by its own supply and demand and macro privacy. The average price of pure benzene at the beginning of the month was 6075 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 6154 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.28%.
3、 Future expectations
The current cost pressure in the aniline market is increasing, and downstream companies are entering the market on demand. Aniline companies are experiencing difficulties in shipping, and it is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and consolidated at the end of August, with most brand products experiencing narrow price changes. As of August 27th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7215 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.03% compared to the price level at the beginning of August.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the middle of the month, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe eased, and market concerns about unstable crude oil supply weakened. At the same time, OPEC+production expectations were clear, and negative factors in international oil prices have continued to this day. At the end of the month, the trend of propane followed the decline of crude oil, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises continued to weaken. The price of propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the recent increase in enterprise load, coupled with the average follow-up of downstream demand, may drag down the future market trend. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials are showing a loosening trend in cost support.
Supply side:
At the end of August, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with small increases. Overall, the industry’s load level remained stable at 78%, with an average weekly total output of nearly 790000 tons. In the latter half of the year, the first and second lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jingbo Polyolefin will resume work successively, coupled with the approaching production of the 900000 ton new production line in Daxie, Ningbo. The trend of loose market supply is clear, which seriously limits the support from the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, with inventory levels approaching over 800000 tons and slow digestion. Overall, there has been no improvement in the support for spot prices from the PP supply side, and there are still many pressures.
In terms of demand:
At the end of August, polypropylene was in the transition period between peak and off peak seasons, and market players were looking forward to and preparing for a surge in PP demand. However, the trading atmosphere in the field remained light. Merchants have not seen large-scale advance stocking, and new orders on site still tend to be scattered and delivered according to contracts, with operations tending to be on-demand. The improvement of source liquidity is limited. The median load of downstream enterprises has slightly increased, and there is a potential willingness to build warehouses in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture. At the same time, there are macro guidance on supply side reforms and other news, and the market has solid bottoming forces. It is recommended to closely monitor the downstream construction dynamics.
Future forecast
At the end of August, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is weak, and the overall support for PP is weakened. The industry load is high, stable and slightly rising, with expectations of loose supply in the future, and consumption is at the junction of peak and off peak seasons. The current market is experiencing a rising atmosphere, and it is expected that there may be an upward trend during the PP peak season.

Recently (8.11-8.25), the butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 25th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12020 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from 11900 yuan/ton on August 11th. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The expected start of production for Shunding rubber has slightly decreased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of August 25th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11900~12200 yuan/ton.
Recently (8.11-8.25), the price of butadiene has fluctuated slightly higher, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 25th, the price of butadiene was 9333 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.75% from 9083 yuan/ton on August 11th.
Recently (8.11-8.25), the domestic Shunding plant has started operating at around 6.90%, and there are maintenance plans for the later stage of the plant. It is expected that the supply pressure will not be high.
Demand side: Recently (8.11-8.25), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of August 22, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.40%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that raw material prices will rise slightly, downstream tire production will increase slightly, and with the arrival of the peak season, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience a volatile rise in the later period.