According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and rising recently (5.1-5.13). As of May 13th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14748 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.08% from 14308 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Downstream tire production has decreased, weakening the support for natural rubber demand; The natural rubber raw material market continues to rise, and the cost of natural rubber continues to support it; The domestic natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. The easing of costs and international trade has led to a slight increase in natural rubber prices.
As of May 13th, the price of Thai glue was 60.25 baht/kg, an increase of 2.99% from 58.50 baht/kg at the end of April. Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, raw material prices remain high, and natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.
Recently (5.1~5.13), natural rubber inventories have continued to increase slightly, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 618700 tons, an increase of 4500 tons or 0.73% compared to the previous period.
Recently (5.1-5.13), the significant decrease in downstream tire production has greatly weakened the support for the natural rubber market. As of May 9th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 5.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 4.5%.
Market forecast: Although there is a slight rebound in domestic and foreign raw material prices, expectations for the future continue to decline, downstream production is low, and support for natural rubber weakens. In addition, the inventory of Tianjiao Port is still at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will return to weakness in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 1 to May 12, 2025, the toluene market first fell and then rose. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5390 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. After the May Day holiday, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend, driving the atmosphere of the toluene market. The recent market fluctuations are mainly affected by market atmosphere, with weak impact from the supply side. After the holiday, the demand for oil in the Shandong region is still good, and downstream purchases are entering the market. Refinery inventories in Shandong are generally running at a low level, and the ex factory prices of main refineries are generally increasing. The market sentiment in the East China region is still weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish. Overall, the toluene market has experienced a decline followed by an increase this cycle, largely following the fluctuations in crude oil prices.
On the cost side: During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell significantly, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which was negative for international oil prices and led to a sharp decline in the crude oil market. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israel Palestine conflict and the intention of negotiations between China and the United States, the trend of international oil prices has risen. Overall, in early May, international oil prices remained mainly fluctuating at a low level. As of May 9th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.02 per barrel, and the main contract settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $63.91 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of May 12th, East China Company quoted 5300 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5300 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On May 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 6600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of May 9th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were $760-762/ton FOB Korea and $784-786/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, while the toluene market has been greatly affected. There has been little change in supply and demand in the near future, and downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, the toluene market is expected to experience mainly range based fluctuations in the near future, with specific attention paid to the trend of crude oil.

Market Overview: Before and after the May Day holiday, the local supply of acrylonitrile in the domestic market decreased, leading to a temporary weak balance in the market. Coupled with continued cost pressures, suppliers maintained high prices, and the overall market remained stagnant and consolidated. As of May 9th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports has been maintained at around 8100-8300 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market has been maintained at around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.
Supply reduction: On the one hand, planned maintenance or load reduction of northern facilities. The supply in the East China region has increased this month. According to statistics, as of May 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.37%, a decrease of -2.49% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory decline: According to statistics, as of May 7th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 47000 tons, an increase of -0.3 million tons from last week.
Flat demand: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 69.00%, an increase of 1.86% compared to last week, and the demand fluctuation is not significant.
Cost increase: Before and after the May Day holiday, the overall price of propylene in Shandong’s market rose, with the mainstream price around 6650 yuan/ton, up about 1.3% from before the holiday. At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the equipment surface, and the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, which still supports the price trend. It is expected that the propylene market price will remain strong in the short term.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply is still abundant, and demand fluctuations are not obvious. In the long run, considering the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure of supply-demand contradiction continues to exist. However, in the short term, industry inventory is controllable, and with cost support, suppliers may continue to maintain high prices. However, the fundamentals remain weak, and the market lacks effective rebound momentum. Overall, it is temporarily stable and consolidating.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke declined at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2262.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% from 2355.00 yuan/ton on April 27th.

Recently, the trend of crude oil prices has fallen. On the one hand, there are significant differences within OPEC+regarding crude oil production, which has led to increased uncertainty in the prospects of crude oil supply and mainly caused low-level fluctuations in the crude oil market. On the other hand, the increase in tariffs by the United States has raised concerns about global demand for crude oil, causing the crude oil market to remain volatile at a low level.

At the end of the month, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was average. Refinery shipments were hindered, and in addition, the benchmark price for pre baked anodes purchased by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong in May decreased compared to April, which limited support for petroleum coke. As a result, the overall price of petroleum coke from local refineries fell. Recently, the concentration of coke in the United States has been concentrated in ports, mainly high sulfur coke. The trading of petroleum coke in ports is average, and the port inventory is sufficient. Downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement, and the imported petroleum coke market has declined slightly.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in April. As of April 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4679 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 4.70%.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from March, with a deepening decline and almost no rebound throughout the month. The trend was slightly flat in the latter half of the month, with the decline mainly slowing down.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the low levels of upstream crude oil and weak ethylene prices, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market is generally experiencing a bearish trend. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of April 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since April, the price of calcium carbide has risen, mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month, and the market has stabilized in the middle and late of the month, with price range adjustments. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since March has been 5.1%. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts from Shengyi Society believe that PVC supply and demand will remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers, as well as high inventory levels in both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, it is difficult for the upstream price of calcium carbide to increase, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in May 2025, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.