Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
Macro news
International: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, and the decline in the US dollar index supports commodities, but the US consumer confidence index in August fell to 97.4 (recession risk still exists), dragging down industrial sentiment; Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia’s temporary ban on selling gasoline for cars in September have intensified market uncertainty.
Domestically, Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies (lifting purchase restrictions and increasing housing provident fund loan quotas) to boost demand for aluminum profiles and building templates; However, from January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the momentum of consumer recovery was relatively weak.
Industry fundamentals news
(1) Supply and demand and inventory
Supply: The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50000 tons within this year).
Demand: Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, with aluminum rod processing fees rising to 190 yuan/ton and aluminum rod outbound volume of 62400 tons. However, the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry is only 50.5%, and orders for automotive and photovoltaic profiles have decreased. The weak demand in the photovoltaic industry still poses pressure.
Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 610000 tons (an increase of 7000 tons compared to August 25th), the social inventory of aluminum rods is 136200 tons (an increase of 1300 tons), and the LME aluminum ingot inventory is 4812500 tons (an increase of 3175 tons). The trend of inventory depletion has slowed down, and the pressure has increased.
(2) Cost end
The average spot price of alumina is 3235 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with light trading volume); The price of pre baked anode is 4913 yuan/ton (unchanged); The average price of Q5500 thermal coal is 571 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton), and the overall cost support is relatively neutral.
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