According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 30th, the price of lead 1 # was 16735 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.65% compared to the lead price of 17051 yuan/ton on January 26th.
This week’s market analysis
Recently, the overall lead price has shown a fluctuating downward trend, which is mainly influenced by the weak performance of both supply and demand sides as well as macro market sentiment.
supply side
Reduction of smelting production
Affected by environmental policies, some lead smelting enterprises in central and eastern China have reduced production by 30%, and some enterprises have even stopped production directly. This situation has led to a tightening trend on the supply side in some areas, which has eased the pressure of lead ingot inventory backlog to a certain extent. However, overall, the supply of lead is still relatively loose.
Blocked supply of raw materials
The waste battery market is currently facing a shortage of supply, which has affected the raw material supply of recycled lead enterprises and reduced the amount of raw material arrivals. As a result, some recycled lead companies have chosen to enter the holiday ahead of schedule, which further suppresses the supply of lead.
Demand side
The demand for batteries in the electric bicycle field is showing a weak trend, and lead-acid battery companies have serious inventory backlog of finished products. The willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival is low, with only a small amount of rigid demand procurement.
Exports are facing pressure due to changes in overseas tariff policies, resulting in a decline in export orders and overall weak performance on the demand side.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, lead prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with supply side production cuts providing some support for prices. However, weak demand and inventory pressure still constrain the rebound space. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and we need to be vigilant about the further impact of the double decline in supply and demand on market sentiment.
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