1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on September 22, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6675 yuan / ton, up 1.44% compared with last Tuesday, 1.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 1.48% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 1.77% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, PVC market remained stable, with partial fine adjustment. Last week, the PVC market showed a steady upward trend, and the market continued up to now. The mainstream enterprises increased about 100-150 yuan. Taking Shandong Xinfa as an example, the price was 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, and 6630 yuan / ton on the 22nd. The price rose by 130 yuan. Some enterprises are short of goods and will not offer for the time being. As the holidays approached, the downstream started replenishment mode, and the futures continued to rise, boosting the trend of the spot market. The low-end price of PVC began to move closer to the high-end price, the market trading atmosphere turned better, and the attitude of the industry was optimistic. In some regions, the supply of goods was not much, the manufacturers’ pre-sale was better, and the focus of PVC gradually moved up.

At present, the demand for PVC is improving, the export side is picking up, the domestic downstream demand is stable, the operating rate of pipe and membrane material enterprises is maintained at a medium high level, other product industries are maintained at a medium level, and the overall operating rate is slightly increased. Recently, maintenance enterprises have increased, such as Baotou sea level, Shandong Dongyue and other enterprises, as well as the reduction of import volume, the supply side is somewhat tight, PVC manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and have a strong sense of price support. Overall, PVC supply and demand pattern is roughly balanced, there is no obvious contradiction, PVC trend is relatively strong in the short term.

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is around 6400-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China is increased, including the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of eastern China is raised by RMB 6750-6750 / T, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area is raised. Prices from all over the country rose steadily.

In terms of futures, v2101 opened at 6705 yuan / ton on Tuesday and closed at 6645 yuan / ton, down 0.60%. Yesterday’s settlement price was 6685, and the trading range was 6630-6720 yuan / ton, with 171000 transactions and 11300 hands reduced to 195000 hands.

Regional variety and technology September 22

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 6570-6640 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6750 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on September 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 39.54 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.78 dollars or 4.31%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 41.96 US dollars / barrel, down 1.72 US dollars or 3.94%. The sharp decline in oil prices was mainly due to the collapse of global stock markets and the resurgence of the European epidemic, which led to the panic and fall of oil prices.

Ethylene, the recent U.S. ethylene market is mainly rising, poor demand. Ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable and demand is fair. The market of ethylene in Europe declined and the demand was moderate. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

Calcium carbide, late September, calcium carbide Market small shocks. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The later market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late September.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that as enterprises enter autumn overhaul, import volume decreases, supply side supply is tight, PVC export gradually improves, domestic downstream stock increases before the festival, and futures rebound, the PVC center of gravity begins to move up, but there are new capacity plans to enter the market, early maintenance enterprises return to work, PVC faces the risk of callback. PVC prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid has been running steadily, and the market price rose again on September 21. As of September 21, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 9333.33 yuan / ton, up 8.95% compared with last Monday (September 14) and 28.74% higher than that on August 21, according to the large list data of business agencies. At present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the cost continues to be under pressure, and some manufacturers are about to overhaul their devices. In addition, they are actively preparing goods near the downstream of Shuangjie, and the market of acrylic acid is rising.

The commodity index of acrylic acid on September 21 was 46.80, up 2.17 points compared with yesterday, 53.20% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 90.48% higher than 24.57 points, the lowest point on November 26, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream propylene, the propylene market price in Shandong Province declined slightly on September 21. According to the price chart of the business agency, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. Up to the fourth day, the total price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the seventh to the tenth, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it was slightly stable. From the 13th, the price went up again, up 350 yuan / ton on the 17th. On the 17th, the price remained stable, and the price decreased slightly on weekends Today, the prices of some enterprises are down by 50 yuan / ton, and some enterprises have the trend of making up. The transaction volume in the market is between 7300 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, low inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that the recent high price of raw material propylene, coupled with the strengthening of supply and demand support, market trading is hot. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

As of September 18, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2553 yuan / ton, up 2.54% from 2490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. At present, there are 2450-2600 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2500-2600 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2550-2630 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Henan, 2500-2530 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2100 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1600

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120 parking

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Longyu, Henan 50.1300

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50 parking maintenance

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

The domestic acetic acid market was strong and upward this week. At the beginning of the week, the domestic acetic acid price had risen to a high level. Some companies were cautious in purchasing and the market trading was weak. On Wednesday, Jiangsu SOPP 1.2 million tons / year device was shut down, the market supply continued to decline, and the market price mentality was improved. In addition, the downstream and traders’ positive intention to prepare goods near the end of the month led to the improvement of the purchasing situation.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the shipment of enterprises is fair, and the manufacturer’s offer is firm. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, at present, it is about 1810 yuan / ton. Downstream, vinyl acetate, acetate and other downstream industries of acetic acid are driven by high cost pressure, and downstream purchasing is mainly on demand, and the enterprise shipping situation is general.

In recent years, the international acetic acid market has been running steadily, among which the Asian acetic acid market has slightly increased due to the strong price of raw material methanol and the decline of supply, and the current quotation is about 310-345 US dollars / ton; the supply and demand in European market is stable, and the price is stable, which is about 540 euro / ton; the supply in North America market is tight, and the price is slightly higher within the week, and the current price is about 500 US dollars / ton.

Acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the downstream market of acetic acid is gradually completed, with digestion contracts as the main part, and some sporadic small orders are traded; the decline of operating rate and inventory of acetic acid market leads to the supply side supporting the firm operation of the market.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15550 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price rose by 0.32% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus spot tight this week, the price is stable and rising. The overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively strong, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the spot market of yellow phosphorus is a little tense. The price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan increased, while the market price in Yunnan and Guizhou remained basically unchanged. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 15500 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan is about 15700 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 15500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the overall market of phosphate ore continued to maintain stable operation this week, with light on-site trading, strong atmosphere for enterprise price adjustment, cautious downstream procurement, and limited transaction volume of new orders. Up to now, the price of coke market is temporarily stable, the overall market is relatively strong, coking enterprises have low inventory and positive shipment. In terms of downstream demand, most steel mills have not made any statement on the rise, and the demand for coke is still good. Most market people are optimistic about the future market. It is expected that the coke steel game will continue in the near future, and the coke price will be stable and strong. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2080 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of demand, the sales of phosphoric acid in local markets are normal this week, and the logistics may be limited in the near holiday. The downstream stock is more than before, but the overall market enthusiasm is not high. Phosphate market sales are OK, or the original old customers in the normal order, the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is general.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of chemical branch of business society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen steadily this week. Manufacturers mainly issued early orders, yellow phosphorus spot tight, traders wait-and-see mood is obvious, high price transaction limited. However, a small number of downstream enterprises that did not prepare goods in time also have the possibility of taking goods at high prices. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly high.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The market of acrylic acid is rising recently. As of September 15, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 8566.67 yuan / ton, up 8.90% compared with last Monday (September 7) and 20.94% higher than August 15, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the price of raw material propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, the downstream industry is entering the peak season, the demand is getting better, the parking device is increasing in the later stage, the spot supply is declining, the atmosphere of pulling up in the field is strong, and the market price of acrylic acid is rising sharply.

On September 15, the acrylic acid commodity index was 42.96, unchanged with yesterday, down 57.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and increased by 74.85% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream propylene, on September 15, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province rose steadily. According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene broke through the cyclical fluctuation range at the beginning of last month, and began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the market fluctuation was small. However, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. To the 4th day, the total price of propylene rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the 7th to the 10th, the first round of reduction was made, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, the price was slightly stabilized. From the 13th, the price rose again, up to about 250 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 7300 and 7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7350 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, low inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that the recent high raw material propylene, acrylic cost continued to bear pressure, superimposed on the downstream demand boost, it is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly strong.