Demand continues to warm up, PVC market is booming

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on September 22, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6675 yuan / ton, up 1.44% compared with last Tuesday, 1.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 1.48% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 1.77% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

2、 Market analysis

 

On Tuesday, PVC market remained stable, with partial fine adjustment. Last week, the PVC market showed a steady upward trend, and the market continued up to now. The mainstream enterprises increased about 100-150 yuan. Taking Shandong Xinfa as an example, the price was 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, and 6630 yuan / ton on the 22nd. The price rose by 130 yuan. Some enterprises are short of goods and will not offer for the time being. As the holidays approached, the downstream started replenishment mode, and the futures continued to rise, boosting the trend of the spot market. The low-end price of PVC began to move closer to the high-end price, the market trading atmosphere turned better, and the attitude of the industry was optimistic. In some regions, the supply of goods was not much, the manufacturers’ pre-sale was better, and the focus of PVC gradually moved up.

 

At present, the demand for PVC is improving, the export side is picking up, the domestic downstream demand is stable, the operating rate of pipe and membrane material enterprises is maintained at a medium high level, other product industries are maintained at a medium level, and the overall operating rate is slightly increased. Recently, maintenance enterprises have increased, such as Baotou sea level, Shandong Dongyue and other enterprises, as well as the reduction of import volume, the supply side is somewhat tight, PVC manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and have a strong sense of price support. Overall, PVC supply and demand pattern is roughly balanced, there is no obvious contradiction, PVC trend is relatively strong in the short term.

 

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is around 6400-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China is increased, including the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of eastern China is raised by RMB 6750-6750 / T, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area is raised. Prices from all over the country rose steadily.

 

In terms of futures, v2101 opened at 6705 yuan / ton on Tuesday and closed at 6645 yuan / ton, down 0.60%. Yesterday’s settlement price was 6685, and the trading range was 6630-6720 yuan / ton, with 171000 transactions and 11300 hands reduced to 195000 hands.

 

Regional variety and technology September 22

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 6570-6640 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6750 yuan / ton

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Upstream crude oil, on September 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 39.54 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.78 dollars or 4.31%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 41.96 US dollars / barrel, down 1.72 US dollars or 3.94%. The sharp decline in oil prices was mainly due to the collapse of global stock markets and the resurgence of the European epidemic, which led to the panic and fall of oil prices.

 

Ethylene, the recent U.S. ethylene market is mainly rising, poor demand. Ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable and demand is fair. The market of ethylene in Europe declined and the demand was moderate. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

 

Calcium carbide, late September, calcium carbide Market small shocks. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The later market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late September.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business agency believe that as enterprises enter autumn overhaul, import volume decreases, supply side supply is tight, PVC export gradually improves, domestic downstream stock increases before the festival, and futures rebound, the PVC center of gravity begins to move up, but there are new capacity plans to enter the market, early maintenance enterprises return to work, PVC faces the risk of callback. PVC prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term.

PVA