Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 24th, the average market price was 7518 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market prices are weak and consolidating, and the trading atmosphere in the market is average. International crude oil futures closed down, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets fell, affecting confidence in the domestic pure benzene market. Accumulated inventory in East China ports, loose offers from cargo holders, and slight reductions in offers from some refineries in Shandong. As the contract delivery period approaches, the market is more active in the circulation of low-priced goods. It is expected that the pure benzene market will operate on a weak strong basis in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from last week this week (12.16-20). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4980 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.64% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since December, PVC prices have continued to decline. This week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, The price of PVC continues to decline. On the one hand, due to the impact of low upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the poor performance of the futures market has put pressure on the spot market. Combined with the loose performance of supply and demand, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased in the past two months, with over half of them operating at full capacity. Supply pressure is prominent, and dealer offers are declining steadily. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5080 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since December, the price of calcium carbide has started to decline, mainly from high levels. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide fell by 0.58% last week. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there will be a slight surplus of PVC supply and demand in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream cost support weakened, and the market price of nylon filament slightly fell. The cost side support is weak, downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm is not high, multi-dimensional holding of essential orders, and the demand side has not shown significant improvement. Negative factors dominate the market, and the nylon fiber market price is weak and declining. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the cost side and changes in downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly decreased this week (December 16-20, 2024). As of December 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.57%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.34%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

Weakness and decline in raw materials

This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream raw material caprolactam plant for nylon filament was operating normally, with sustained high inventory and low downstream purchasing willingness. The trading atmosphere was calm, and the caprolactam market price continued to decline. Lack of confidence in the industrial chain, shrinking actual trading volume in the nylon PA6 chip market, with no positive support from both upstream and downstream, and insufficient confidence among industry players. As of December 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11216 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%.

Supply demand

The operating rate of nylon filament market equipment is relatively high, currently operating at around 8.4%. The inventory of various manufacturers continues to accumulate, and the overall supply performance on site is loose, with average supply side support; There is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn factories have a certain degree of risk aversion. They hold onto multiple essential orders, and it is difficult to find positive support from the demand side during the week.

Future forecast

The market for nylon filament raw material caprolactam is expected to continue its downward trend, with inventory pressure remaining high and supply side still under pressure. Spot prices are weakly stable and consolidating, market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. Terminal market demand remains weak, with bearish factors prevailing in the market. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly experience a weak downward trend.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.23% compared to the zinc price of 25980 yuan/ton on December 9th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the domestic zinc market was positively influenced by the macroeconomic conference, showing an overall trend of first rising and then falling. The content of the meeting has significantly boosted the domestic economy, driving up the price of zinc in the middle of the week. However, by the weekend, the price of zinc futures had fallen slightly, and the market volatility was more intense.

Supply and demand side

The circulation of spot goods has been tightened due to the maintenance of some smelters, and spot prices have generally remained firm. Prices have been raised within the week. The downstream market has a poor receiving atmosphere near absolute high prices and premiums, and the overall trading atmosphere is slightly average.

Inventory situation

Shanghai area: The goods will arrive gradually within the week, but there are significant restrictions on circulation. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is strong, and inventory is gradually accumulating. Guangdong region: Refinery maintenance and delivery are limited, downstream point price outflow mainly follows market fluctuations, and inventory continues to decline. Tianjin region: Northern galvanizing production has improved, procurement has gradually improved, and inventory has slightly decreased.

comprehensive analysis

This week, the zinc market was boosted by the macroeconomic conference and showed an overall trend of increased volatility. Next week, the market will continue to monitor macroeconomic data and changes in supply and demand, and it is expected that there will be adjustments in the premium and delivery situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in mid December, with some brand products experiencing price increases. As of December 17th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7641.67 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.27% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the supply risk has increased due to the geopolitical situation in Syria. At the same time, the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present, coupled with the expectation of increased demand in Asia, international oil prices have recently fluctuated and risen, strengthening support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, the tight supply in North China has improved, and the favorable supply has weakened, resulting in a decline in prices. Propane is operating steadily in response to the trend of crude oil, PDH remained stable at a high level due to its influence. Overall, the recent trend of PP raw materials is still acceptable, and the support on the cost side is also acceptable.

Supply side:

In December, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and production of PP enterprises in China, and the overall load level continued the stable trend of the previous period. Overall, the industry’s overall load has only experienced a narrow decline from nearly 75% in the first half of the year to around 73%. The domestic PP shipment volume is flat, with a weekly output of about 670000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some newly put into operation facilities are unstable, supporting the mentality of some operators. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At present, the demand side of PP tends towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The slow release of some pre holiday replenishment demand has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

Future forecast

The PP market prices in China remained stable in December. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range is flat, but the production situation of some of the put into operation equipment is unstable. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption and tend to focus on restocking for essential needs. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.