1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1002 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2% and an increase of 18.93% compared to last year. On December 15th, the chemical index was 839 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.30% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak and declining, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 870-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 50th week of 2024 (12.9-12.13), there were 0 products with rising prices, 1 product with falling prices, and 5 products with zero rising and falling prices in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodity experiencing a decline is caustic soda (-2.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.37%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been weak, the alumina industry has been fluctuating, and non aluminum industry demand has been weak. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The nickel market rebounded slightly this week (12.7-12.13). According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, spot nickel prices were reported at 130641 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.63%.

Macroscopic aspect: From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference determined that the monetary policy in 2025 should be “moderately loose”, the fiscal policy should be more forceful and awesome, and the policy “combination fist” should be played well to boost confidence of all parties. Supporting the rebound of nickel prices.

On the supply side: The global nickel supply surplus continues, with Russia’s major producer Nornickel stating on Tuesday that the global nickel surplus will remain at around 150000 tons by 2025. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, and weekly growth has weakened. As of December 13th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 30564 tons, an increase of 985 tons during the week; On December 13th, LME nickel inventory was 164508 tons, an increase of 756 tons for the week.

On the demand side: Electroplating and alloy consumption remain stable, while stainless steel maintains a state of “high output+high inventory+demand neutrality”, with weak fluctuations. We look forward to favorable support from policy meetings. As of December 13th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13192.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month.

Market forecast: There is no significant improvement in demand, buying at low prices, and inventory pressure. There is significant resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices, and it is expected that macroeconomic policy benefits will continue. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight decline since December due to the low demand season. As of December 12th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.

In the future, the crude oil market has been relatively strong recently, which has boosted the cost of short fibers. Although OPEC has lowered its global demand forecast for five consecutive months in its monthly report, the decrease in US crude oil inventories has been offset by an increase in refined oil inventories. However, China’s boost to the economy may increase oil demand, and European and American crude oil futures have risen for the third consecutive day. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.52 per barrel.

This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight upward trend. As of December 12th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4734 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the week. But its own supply is still sufficient, and the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Zhuhai Ineos was overhauled for more than 20 days in early December. The total production capacity of PTA at Jiaxing Petrochemical is 3.7 million tons per year, of which the 1 # 1.5 million ton units underwent maintenance on December 12th, and the restart time is yet to be determined. The supply has slightly decreased, and the PTA industry is operating at around 88%. However, the domestic PTA supply remains high, and we are concerned about the progress of Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant plan to be put into operation in mid December next week.

The trading atmosphere for cold resistant fabrics at downstream textile terminals is still good, and the atmosphere for inquiries about some spring orders is good. Intermediaries and traders only stock up on demand, and the delivery of domestic and foreign trade orders is coming to an end. As of December 11th, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is less than 70%. At present, factory inventory and financial pressure have increased, and the connection of new orders is not smooth. Weaving manufacturers are cautious and weak in their expectations for the future, and there are still expectations of a decline in production in the weaving industry. With the impact of the off-season of consumption, it is expected that the transaction atmosphere in the yarn market will further weaken, and there is an expectation of weakened demand.

Overall, due to the lack of sustainability driven by favorable costs, as well as sufficient supply and weak demand, the supply-demand structure is weakening, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6612.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.47% compared to the price of 6850 yuan/ton on December 1st. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; The price of ortho benzene fluctuated and fell, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride weakened. Supply exceeds demand and cost support is insufficient, resulting in a fluctuating decline in phthalic anhydride prices.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In December, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable, with about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers starting production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers was stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the price of ortho benzene was 6700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 290% compared to the price of ortho benzene of 6900 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, causing a decrease in the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride and increasing downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: The DOP market fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the DOP price was 8826.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of plasticizers fluctuates and falls, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remains stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling. PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. The expected operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and plasticizer manufacturers have weak demand for phthalic anhydride. The support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of demand, the expected operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream support for phthalic anhydride has weakened. Overall, with the decrease in costs and sluggish demand, it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and decline in the future.

This week (December 2-6, 2024), the cost side trend is upward, and the nylon filament market is experiencing a narrow upward trend. The weekly settlement price of upstream raw material Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been raised, and the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 slices has continued to rise during the week, with strong cost support. On site supply is relatively loose, downstream market orders are insufficient, and manufacturers tend to have a certain degree of risk aversion, maintaining essential procurement and mainly consuming raw material inventory. Good and negative factors coexist in the market, and the price of nylon filament is cautiously rising narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament increased narrowly this week (December 2-6, 2024). As of December 6, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17360 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week, with a weekly increase of 0.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is quoted at 18200 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost trend is on the rise

On the raw material side, the weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been raised to 11680 yuan/ton, and the market price trend of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 slices has been upward. The market price of raw materials has increased significantly during the week, with strong support from the cost side. As of December 6th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11216 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.11%.

Supply demand

Most of the devices in the nylon filament market are operating stably, and new production increases can be continuously released in the field. The industry supply still shows an increasing trend; The downstream market is facing a shortage of orders, and manufacturers tend to have a certain degree of risk aversion to maintain essential purchases. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, and the demand side is dragging down the trend of the nylon filament market.

Future forecast

The spot market for upstream raw material caprolactam and the market for nylon PA6 chips may continue to rise, but the fluctuations are not significant, and cost support still exists. The new production increase in the nylon filament industry can continue to be released, and the market supply may remain high, while on-site inventory may continue to increase. The downstream market may continue to follow up on demand, and the terminal market is in the traditional off-season of demand, with a gradually weakening trend in raw material demand. It is difficult for the demand side to have positive support. Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the nylon filament market price will slightly strengthen next week, with an expected increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.