This week, the overall load of the East China factory has decreased, and the supply side has started to reduce. At the same time, downstream users have started to stock up appropriately, and the inventory of enterprises has decreased. The acrylonitrile market has bottomed out and is consolidating. As of January 23rd, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply reduction:
The overall load reduction of the East China factory within the week. According to statistics, as of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 75.22%, which is -2.93% higher than the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 85700 tons, which is 0.34 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 57300 tons, which is 0.42 million tons compared to last week, indicating a decrease in the company’s inventory.
Increased demand:
This week, the overall production of major downstream industries has declined, among which Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its negative load, and the utilization rate of ABS production capacity has decreased to 66.8%, a decrease of -3% compared to last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 65.97%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.29%, which was -0.36% compared to last week. However, the low price attracted some buyers to follow up, and downstream users began to stock up appropriately, resulting in an overall increase in demand.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, leading to an increase in raw material costs for acrylonitrile production. However, acrylonitrile prices remained low and fluctuated, resulting in further worsening of production losses this week. According to statistics, as of January 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6175 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous weekend’s 6145 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8430 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.06%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period is -1220 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -45 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, there are currently fluctuations in local equipment and active load reduction, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has dropped to around 70%. Excess pressure may be alleviated, and low prices may attract some buyers to follow suit. There is an expectation of an upward trend in the domestic acrylonitrile market, but considering the temporary weakening of demand before and after the Spring Festival, the market rebound space will still be suppressed.
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