Entering 2026, the Chinese acrylic acid market did not see the expected “good start”, but instead fell into a “dilemma of ups and downs” in a volatile stalemate under the dual pressure of continuously rising raw material costs and weak recovery of terminal demand. In line with the downward trend of “no effective rebound” for the whole year of 2025.
Price trend:
Changes this week: As we enter January 2026, prices are gradually stabilizing. As of January 20th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% compared to the beginning of this month (5850.00 yuan/ton).
Cost side:
The price of propylene raw materials has risen: Recently, propylene prices have been operating strongly, and the valuation range in Shandong has risen to 5750-5810 yuan/ton, with upward pressure. As a direct raw material for acrylic acid, propylene accounts for over 60% of the cost, and this round of price increase has directly pushed up the production cost of acrylic acid.
Narrowing profit margin: Although the price of acrylic acid has rebounded slightly, the increase is much lower than that of raw material propylene, leading to further compression of production profits. By the end of 2025, the industry’s profit per ton has fallen to a low level. Under current cost pressures, small, medium, and high cost enterprises may face losses, forcing them to reduce or shut down production.
Supply side:
Partial equipment resumption of production (such as one unit in Zibo) increases local supply, but the overall operating rate of the industry is still suppressed. Long term prices below the cost line trigger production capacity clearance, causing some companies to undergo maintenance or delay restart.
Demand side:
Downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives are in a traditional off-season, with procurement mainly focused on small orders for essential needs. The export market is under pressure, global demand is weak, and competition for low-cost production capacity in the Middle East is constraining export growth.
Short term outlook:
The oscillation is strong, but the upward space is limited, and the cost support is solid. If the price of propylene continues to rise, it will push acrylic acid to passively follow suit. After reaching the cost line of 5800 yuan/ton, the resistance to further decline increased, triggering supply contraction. There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream. Additionally, some factories may shut down early before the Spring Festival. The pattern of overcapacity remains unchanged, and any rebound may stimulate the release of existing capacity and suppress growth.
Price range: It is expected that the mainstream price in the East China market will fluctuate within the range of 5900-6200 yuan/ton in the short term, and breakthrough depends on a significant increase in costs or supply contraction beyond expectations.
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