I. Trend analysis
According to the data of business associations, the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber rose mainly in September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11075 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 1290 yuan/ton, up 16.48%.
II. Market Analysis
|PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)|
Influenced by the slight increase in raw materials, cis-butadiene rubber rose slightly at the beginning of the month, and then stabilized for half a month. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is stable, and the whole cis-butadiene rubber industry chain is in a balanced state. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material butadiene was basically stable in the first half of September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 10,354 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 10,390, which was relatively stable as a whole. On the other hand, downstream tires started relatively stable, and the purchase of cis-tin was not warm. Although the ex-factory price of petrochemical plants increased slightly at the beginning of the month, the market was mainly shipped, and the offer was relatively stable.
The market of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply in the second half of September. Firstly, the price of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply due to the impact of the soaring crude oil, which put great pressure on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material Butadiene on September 16 was 10 401 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the price of butadiene was 1 1845 yuan/ton, up 13.66 percent as a whole. Secondly, the bottom price of Shanghai rubber construction rose to 12,000 yuan per ton in September, which led to the rising sentiment of cis-butadiene rubber. Finally, the start-up of cis-butadiene rubber plant has dropped significantly since the third quarter. After entering the August, the first stop was to stop and stop parking, and then to be forced to stop or reduce the load of the butadiene rubber and Qixiang rubber and other butadiene rubber units, which led to a continuous decline in the operating rate of 50%, and the supply was further reduced.
|POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER|
In late September, with the National Day approaching, environmental protection supervision became more stringent, production restriction and shutdown plans were gradually implemented in some areas, the purchasing power of cis-butadiene was weakened, and the price rise of cis-butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated. It is understood that the letter issued by the office of the emergency response working group of the heavy pollution weather bureau of the provincial Party Committee on heavy pollution weather in response to the heavy pollution weather process in from September 25th to 29th suggested that municipalities issued the orange warning for heavy pollution weather at 0:00 on September 23rd and launched the second level emergency response at 0:00 in September 24th. At that time, some tire enterprises will have a limited production shutdown plan.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Business analysts believe that, on the one hand, the rising price of raw materials butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the supply of cis-butadiene market is relatively tight, and in the later period, the price of cis-butadiene rubber will remain high.