Recently (3.1-3.17), the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11716 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.44% from 10150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In early March, the escalation of the US Iran conflict raised concerns about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil prices to skyrocket by over 13% in a single day. Brent crude oil once exceeded $100 per barrel, directly pushing up the cost of ethylene monomer and vinyl acetate raw materials upstream of EVA. At the same time, the 280000 tons/year EVA plant in Fujian, China, has started a 53 day comprehensive overhaul, covering core production units. In addition, overseas companies such as Hanhua, Lotte, and TPI in Thailand have issued force majeure announcements, suspending US dollar quotations, and global supply tightening expectations are rapidly fermenting.
Recently (3.1-3.17), EVA production has started around 8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate have significantly increased, and the cost has strengthened due to the support of EVA. As of March 16th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 5850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 16th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the demand for EVA in the market has been hot and cold. At the beginning of the month, due to geopolitical conflicts and maintenance of large enterprise facilities, EVA prices have risen significantly, causing downstream demand to panic and replenish inventory; The factories in the middle and lower reaches have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and their acceptance of high priced goods has significantly decreased. Coupled with the rapid price fluctuations, it has triggered a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions have stagnated.
In the future, the EVA market is expected to remain in a high volatility pattern in the short term, mainly influenced by the evolution of the Middle East situation, the progress of petrochemical maintenance, and the digestion of downstream inventory. If geopolitical conflicts persist, crude oil prices may remain high, and cost support will continue; The speed of downstream inventory digestion will affect the increase in EVA.
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