This week (3.16-3.20), according to the price data from Shengyi Society, polyester bottle flakes first surged and then fell back from high levels. On Monday, due to the multiple impacts of the surge in crude oil and raw materials, tight spot supply, and futures limit up, the ex factory price of East China bottle flakes quickly rose from about 8650 yuan/ton to over 9200 yuan/ton; From Tuesday to Friday, due to downstream resistance to high prices, reduced procurement, and a decline in raw material prices, prices gradually fell and closed at 8407 yuan/ton on Friday
1、 Main cause of inflation (Monday)
Cost side: Middle East geography → Crude oil/Brent breaks 100% → PX/PTA/EG all rise sharply, with strong cost push
On the supply side, the operating rate is only 69-70%, and the available days of the factory and warehouse are 7-8 days (historically low); Large factories are closing down and reluctant to sell, while spot circulation is tight
• Demand side: stocking up during peak beverage season+positive exports+buying sentiment, downstream chasing orders and hoarding
Futures: Funds rise, limit up drives spot sentiment
2、 Main cause of decline (Tuesday to Friday)
Downstream resistance: High prices suppress procurement, while terminals mainly digest inventory and sporadic demand, resulting in poor price transmission
• Raw material pullback: Crude oil/PX/PTA fell from high levels, and cost support weakened
• Emotional cooling: cautious pursuit of high prices, partial profit taking orders shipped, high-level transactions turned weak
Supply and demand and inventory
Supply: The weekly operating rate was 69.2%, slightly higher than the previous period but still relatively low; No large-scale new production capacity, tight balance of spot goods
• Inventory: The available days of inventory in the factory are 7.76 days, a significant decrease compared to the previous period and at a historical low
• Demand: The peak season for beverages/packaging has started, but the main demand is for essential items at high prices, and there is a lack of momentum in chasing after higher prices
Outlook for next week (from 3.23 onwards)
• Interval: Expected to fluctuate at a high level of 8600-9200 yuan/ton
• Support: Low inventory, tight supply, and continued demand during peak season
• Pressure: Limited downstream acceptance of high prices, decline in raw material prices, and cooling of the pursuit of high prices sentiment
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