In the first half of March, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a trend of initially strong gains, followed by high-level consolidation and decline. The market offers mixed ups and downs, but overall positive support is concentrated and strong; Most traders maintained high and firm quotes, while some merchants tentatively negotiated shipments. The bullish sentiment in the market gradually cooled down, and actual transactions were light.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 16th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4716.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 25.78% in half a month.
Core driving factors
Cost aspect: the core driving force behind the upward trend
The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has raised concerns about energy supply, and the significant strengthening of international crude oil has driven the rapid rise of two major raw materials, methanol and epichlorohydrin. The cost pressure on dimethyl carbonate enterprises has sharply increased, forcing them to significantly raise their prices and concentrate on selling, becoming the core driving force behind this round of market growth.
Methanol: Under the multiple supports of continued geopolitical disturbances, expected import contraction, and gradual downstream recovery, the market maintains a strong operation. On March 16th, the price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2840.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.13% from the beginning of the month, which strongly supported the cost of dimethyl carbonate.
Epoxy propane: The market is currently in a stalemate, with stable operation of supply side equipment, smooth shipment from production factories, low inventory pressure, and high price operation. On March 16th, the price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 10016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.21% from the beginning of the month, further consolidating the cost support of dimethyl carbonate.
Supply side: Periodic tightness, driving price increases
Mainstream devices are operating normally, and the industry as a whole is operating steadily, but there is no significant increase in production capacity. The overall inventory of the factory is low, and some manufacturers have slowed down their order and contract delivery pace, resulting in tight spot circulation in the market. The strong willingness of suppliers to raise prices, coupled with traders holding back their stocks and waiting for price increases, further exacerbates the tense atmosphere of spot trading.
Demand side: driven by urgent needs, with a strong wait-and-see attitude
The overall demand shows the characteristics of weak recovery of rigid demand, high price suppression of procurement, and light transaction volume. The battery side is the only highlight, while traditional solvents and PC side are weak, and overall support for high prices is limited. Mainly focusing on essential small orders, scattered orders, and on-demand replenishment, without centralized procurement or stockpiling; There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment and low willingness to chase after high prices downstream.
Short term outlook
There is a lack of significant improvement on the demand side, with high prices continuing to suppress downstream demand, and the market lacking sustained upward momentum; The high volatility on the cost side is intensifying, and the supplier’s efforts to raise prices may gradually weaken. It is expected that the market for dimethyl carbonate will fluctuate weakly at a high level in the second half of March, and there is a risk of price decline. The focus will be on the trend of raw materials, changes in factory inventory, and downstream real procurement follow-up.
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