According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 4th to 9th, MTBE prices fell from 4853 yuan/ton to 4783 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.44% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.98%, and a year-on-year drop of 17.35%. The domestic MTBE market is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with significant local declines. On the first day of the New Year holiday, the trading atmosphere in the domestic MTBE market was good, with prices being relatively firm. However, the follow-up of terminal demand could not be sustained. In addition, the international crude oil trend fell, MTBE export negotiations were weak, and domestic supply pressure was high. Under the dominance of negative factors, manufacturers began to give up profits, and the focus shifted significantly downwards in some areas.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are that the situation between the United States and Venezuela has not yet intensified, and the market believes that Venezuela’s domestic production will increase in the long term, posing a risk of oversupply. As of January 8th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the March contract was $61.99 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, the weak performance of crude oil has affected the oil market, and the decline in refined oil prices continues. At present, terminal demand is weak, and social units’ inventory digestion is slow. Intermediate traders are cautious in their ordering operations. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: The sample capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in Shandong region is 63.33%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points. The shutdown of Dongfang equipment has resulted in a decrease in operating rate. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on December 8th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $1.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $608.32-610.32/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $14.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $705.74-706.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $35.88/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $623.43-623.78/ton (176.03-176.13 cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that there will be significant pressure on domestic supply, but there will be no significant improvement in the demand for gasoline terminals. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly consolidating weakly.
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