According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and rising recently (5.1-5.13). As of May 13th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14748 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.08% from 14308 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Downstream tire production has decreased, weakening the support for natural rubber demand; The natural rubber raw material market continues to rise, and the cost of natural rubber continues to support it; The domestic natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. The easing of costs and international trade has led to a slight increase in natural rubber prices.
As of May 13th, the price of Thai glue was 60.25 baht/kg, an increase of 2.99% from 58.50 baht/kg at the end of April. Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, raw material prices remain high, and natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.
Recently (5.1~5.13), natural rubber inventories have continued to increase slightly, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 618700 tons, an increase of 4500 tons or 0.73% compared to the previous period.
Recently (5.1-5.13), the significant decrease in downstream tire production has greatly weakened the support for the natural rubber market. As of May 9th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 5.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 4.5%.
Market forecast: Although there is a slight rebound in domestic and foreign raw material prices, expectations for the future continue to decline, downstream production is low, and support for natural rubber weakens. In addition, the inventory of Tianjiao Port is still at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will return to weakness in the later stage.
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