According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 1 to May 12, 2025, the toluene market first fell and then rose. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5390 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. After the May Day holiday, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend, driving the atmosphere of the toluene market. The recent market fluctuations are mainly affected by market atmosphere, with weak impact from the supply side. After the holiday, the demand for oil in the Shandong region is still good, and downstream purchases are entering the market. Refinery inventories in Shandong are generally running at a low level, and the ex factory prices of main refineries are generally increasing. The market sentiment in the East China region is still weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish. Overall, the toluene market has experienced a decline followed by an increase this cycle, largely following the fluctuations in crude oil prices.
On the cost side: During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell significantly, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which was negative for international oil prices and led to a sharp decline in the crude oil market. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israel Palestine conflict and the intention of negotiations between China and the United States, the trend of international oil prices has risen. Overall, in early May, international oil prices remained mainly fluctuating at a low level. As of May 9th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.02 per barrel, and the main contract settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $63.91 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of May 12th, East China Company quoted 5300 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5300 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On May 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 6600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of May 9th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were $760-762/ton FOB Korea and $784-786/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, while the toluene market has been greatly affected. There has been little change in supply and demand in the near future, and downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, the toluene market is expected to experience mainly range based fluctuations in the near future, with specific attention paid to the trend of crude oil.
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