Market Overview: Before and after the May Day holiday, the local supply of acrylonitrile in the domestic market decreased, leading to a temporary weak balance in the market. Coupled with continued cost pressures, suppliers maintained high prices, and the overall market remained stagnant and consolidated. As of May 9th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports has been maintained at around 8100-8300 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market has been maintained at around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.
Supply reduction: On the one hand, planned maintenance or load reduction of northern facilities. The supply in the East China region has increased this month. According to statistics, as of May 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.37%, a decrease of -2.49% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory decline: According to statistics, as of May 7th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 47000 tons, an increase of -0.3 million tons from last week.
Flat demand: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 69.00%, an increase of 1.86% compared to last week, and the demand fluctuation is not significant.
Cost increase: Before and after the May Day holiday, the overall price of propylene in Shandong’s market rose, with the mainstream price around 6650 yuan/ton, up about 1.3% from before the holiday. At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the equipment surface, and the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, which still supports the price trend. It is expected that the propylene market price will remain strong in the short term.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply is still abundant, and demand fluctuations are not obvious. In the long run, considering the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure of supply-demand contradiction continues to exist. However, in the short term, industry inventory is controllable, and with cost support, suppliers may continue to maintain high prices. However, the fundamentals remain weak, and the market lacks effective rebound momentum. Overall, it is temporarily stable and consolidating.
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