1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (average price was 7410 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price was 7720 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.18%; It was 136.09% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
On the last day before the festival (April 30), Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. After the festival, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased again by 300 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, with good cost support. The pure benzene resources in Europe and the United States are in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is opened, and the price of the external market is rising. At home, the domestic pure benzene market is active, the spot supply is tight, and Sinopec’s listing price is high.
In terms of external market, the short-term resources of pure benzene in Europe and the United States are still in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is open. On Friday (May 7), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was US $1059.67/t, up US $103 / T or 10.77% from April 30; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, up US $70 / T or 7.14% from April 30.
In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.
Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene rose this week, exceeding 10000 yuan. On May 9, the price of sample enterprises was 10000 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from last week, and 88.68% from the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline is driven by the pure benzene market, and the price rises. On May 9, the price of aniline was 11300-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 7.76% from last week and 104.72% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the Indian epidemic, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.
Downstream: downstream main product styrene: the current inventory of styrene is low, the spot circulation is tight, and the price is firm. The cost support is good, and the downstream just need replenishment is OK. In the short term, supported by the strong rise in the cost side, styrene is expected to continue to have strong shocks.
On the market side, the supply of pure benzene in the spot market is tight. In addition, Hongrun Petrochemical has stopped exporting, resulting in a decrease in the supply on the spot market. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is expected to be stronger. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
| PVA |