1、 Price trend
This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased from 2186.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2193.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.57%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 102.02 on February 26.
2、 Market analysis
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.
On the demand side: the agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal purchasing gradually increased, and the topdressing increased in some areas due to the favorable rainy weather; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and the new orders were followed up appropriately, and there was still demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The pressure on manufacturers to ship is not big. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas dropped slightly, from 2976.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2840.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.97%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3376.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.32% , a year-on-year increase of 23.54%. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose from 7200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.78%, 24.72% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.
3、 Future forecast
In the first ten days of March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.
| PVA |