1、 Price trend
The price of aniline in Shandong was 4400 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4500 yuan / ton in Nanjing on June 1, and 4300 yuan / ton in Shandong and 4500 yuan / ton in Nanjing on June 30, a decrease of 1.5% this month.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of raw materials, the listed price of pure benzene on June 1 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3600 yuan / ton), and on June 30, it was 3120-3500 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3330 yuan / ton), which was 270 yuan / ton lower than that on June 1, with a decrease of 7.5% this month. In the first ten days of this month, the rising trend of pure benzene continued last month, and the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises also increased. Thanks to the gradual improvement of the macro-economic situation, the crude oil market has repeatedly received good news. Driven by the rising cost, pure benzene, as a direct related product of crude oil downstream, also rose. The operating rate increased, supply increased, and port inventory continued to rise since March, resulting in weak pure benzene Market in the middle of the year. Due to the inventory in the late ten days of the port, as well as the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Downstream market is generally weak, styrene, aniline loss, thus the purchase of pure benzene is also weak. Under the condition of oversupply, the price of pure benzene fell all the way.
Nitric acid rose slightly in June, and the price stabilized after rising 16.67 yuan / ton on June 9. On June 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1433.33 yuan / ton and 1450 yuan / ton on June 30, up 16.67 yuan / ton or 1.16% this month.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
This month, aniline fluctuated and fell, the overall price fluctuation was not big, and the operation was mainly based on big stability and small movement. Affected by the cost in the middle of the year, aniline in Shandong Province rose by 100 yuan / ton; in the last ten days, the cost dropped, combined with the pressure of inventory, the aniline in Shandong Province decreased by 200 yuan / ton. At present, aniline theoretical profit loss.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of raw materials, the atmosphere in the downstream market is weak, the inventory is overstocked due to the high opening rate of petrochemical industry, and the port inventory remains high. It is difficult to change the short-term oversupply situation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will break through difficulties in July.
Aniline is in a loss state, and the downstream demand is low, enterprises take the strategy of reducing the price. In addition, it is difficult to change the cost in the short term. It is estimated that the aniline price in July will be mainly stable, and it is difficult to have a significant fall.
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