According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of cotton yarn in the market has been stable this week, showing a characteristic of clear stability and hidden decline. As of May 23rd, the spot price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22265 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The spot price of 32S pure cotton ring spinning is estimated to be around 23775 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
Market Overview: The cost of textile enterprises continued to increase this week, but after a round of price adjustments last week, downstream acceptance was limited and purchases were cautious. In addition, the number of new orders from textile enterprises was limited, and the off-season in the market was obvious. It was difficult for yarn prices to continue to rise, but the price trend remained stable. The current pace of cotton yarn shipments remains relatively balanced, with prices showing a clear, stable, and downward trend. Downstream textile factories adopt a procurement strategy guided by order demand, taking goods on demand, and maintaining a cautious and wait-and-see attitude in the medium to long term.
Startup situation: Downstream demand is limited, and this week’s orders from textile enterprises are still mainly small and short, with fewer large and fresh orders. The startup rate of textile enterprises has slightly decreased, with about 90% of Xinjiang textile enterprises starting up and 60-70% starting up in mainland China. As of May 22, the startup load of mainstream textile enterprises in China was 74.5%, a decrease of 0.13% compared to the previous month.
Inventory situation: The favorable release of tariff reduction has boosted market confidence in the short term, leading to the restart of some terminal orders. However, new orders have not yet been reflected, and some textile enterprises have slightly accumulated inventory. Some large factories in Xinjiang have inventory for about 30 days, while mainland enterprises have inventory for about 15-20 days. As of May 8th, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 29.3 days, with a weekly decrease of 1.68%.
Cost wise: Cotton prices have risen this week. Based on the current domestic cotton inventory and next season’s planting expectations, the short-term macro will continue to boost cotton prices. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the fundamental changes after entering the off-season. It is expected that the cotton price range will fluctuate in the coming week, with spot prices remaining at 14250-14600 yuan/ton.
Weak demand: The cotton fabric market continues to operate weakly. The sluggish terminal demand has led to weak order taking by textile factories, resulting in a shortage of new orders in both domestic and foreign markets. Currently, small and multi batch orders are the main focus, and the production proportion of conventional varieties has increased. Affected by the imbalance between production and sales, the inventory of raw fabric has shown a slow accumulation trend. Some weaving factories have reduced their operating loads and generally adopted a cautious strategy of “buying as needed”.
Market forecast: The upward trend in cotton prices has squeezed the immediate profit margin of textile enterprises, coupled with the arrival of the off-season in the cotton yarn market, resulting in the accumulation of finished product inventory risks, leading to a lack of upward momentum in yarn prices. In the short term, prices are likely to remain stable and difficult to fluctuate significantly. If there is no significant improvement in demand from downstream weaving factories, it cannot be ruled out that yarn prices may continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating narrowly recently (5.13~5.20). As of May 20th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from 14780 yuan/ton on the 13th. The high point during the cycle was 14975 yuan/ton, and the low point was 14700 yuan/ton. Downstream tire production has rebounded, providing strong support for natural rubber demand; The natural rubber raw material market is consolidating at a high level, and the cost of natural rubber continues to be supported; The domestic natural rubber inventory is still at a high level, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. As of April 20th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14650~15100 yuan/ton.
As of May 20th, the price of Thai glue was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 4.1% from 60.25 Thai baht/kg on May 13th. In the early stage, Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, and raw material prices remain high. Natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.
Recently (5.13~5.20), natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 614200 tons, a decrease of 4500 tons or 0.73% compared to the previous period.
The recent increase in downstream tire production from May 13th to May 20th continues to support the natural rubber market. As of May 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels but expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production will rebound, weakening support for natural rubber, and Tianjin Rubber Port inventory will remain high; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 20th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1930 yuan/ton, which is 0.77% lower than the reference average price of 1945 yuan/ton on May 12th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
This week, the domestic urea market has been weak and declining. As of May 20th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1880-1940 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1900 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1900 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1910 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1940 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, there is currently sufficient supply in the urea market, and some maintenance equipment has been restarted. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises mainly purchase on demand, waiting for the release of summer fertilizer demand.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent downward trend in the domestic urea market is the main reason. At present, market transactions are limited and downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the domestic urea market will continue to be weak in the short term.

In mid May, the domestic ABS market showed a significant upward trend, with most grades’ spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10812.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.82% compared to the beginning of May and an increase of 3.47% compared to the first ten days.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In mid May, the load of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was narrowly reduced from 70% in early May to around 67% currently. The average weekly output is close to 130000 tons, and although the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is still at a high level, it has been reduced to a certain extent, and the on-site supply is still at a relatively sufficient level. At the same time, in the second half of the month, the new installation capacity of the two companies will still have a relaxed impact on industry supply, and there is still some supply pressure in the market. Overall, there has been a narrow improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In mid May, the trend of ABS upstream materials strengthened, providing significant support for ABS cost side. In terms of acrylonitrile, the maintenance of local units within the interval has led to a tightening of supply, coupled with the rapid rebound of export orders for multiple terminal products. Enterprises have locked in profits by stocking up in advance, and factories have quickly responded by raising spot prices. Analysts believe that downstream substantial demand has been partially met, and the upward trend may slow down.
The domestic butadiene market price has significantly increased recently. Boosted by macroeconomic factors such as tariffs, the atmosphere in the spot market has strengthened. Some units are undergoing unplanned maintenance, coupled with tight port supply, resulting in a tight supply of butadiene in the market. The holding party has a strong mentality of raising prices, hesitating to sell and increasing prices, and the butadiene market is rapidly heating up. At present, the price is high and the trading atmosphere in the market is beginning to fade. It is expected that there will be some room for market correction in the short term, and the overall operation may remain stable, moderate, and weak.
In mid May, the domestic styrene market saw a significant increase. Affected by the consensus reached in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, international oil prices have risen, and the price of pure benzene has also increased. Coupled with the accelerated destocking of styrene ports, market sentiment has rapidly improved. In the future, there will be an increase in arrivals from the main ports in East China. With the concentrated release of positive news, it is expected that the resistance to styrene’s continued rise will increase, and the short-term market will mainly digest the increase.

On the demand side: On May 12th, with the agreement reached between China and the United States to reduce tariffs during the talks, it is favorable for the commodity market, and the macro level has significantly boosted the export markets in small household appliances, consumer electronics, and other fields. The export orders of ABS terminal factories rebounded rapidly, and the load also increased accordingly, leading to a surge in on-site trading volume. The current liquidity of the source of goods has been activated, and the purchasing logic has shifted towards strong demand for entry and stocking. However, the inventory position was relatively high before, and there was a lot of room for on-site turnover, so there was no tightening situation on the supply side. Overall, the demand side has significantly strengthened its support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market rose strongly in mid May. The upstream three material ranges all rose, providing strong comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The production load of ABS polymerization plant has been reduced narrowly, and there is a significant increase in demand in the short term. Business analysts believe that ABS has already fallen to near cost price, coupled with favorable factors such as the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States and the current export window period, which has led to a surge in spot prices in the middle of the month. However, with the recent rise in the market, industry players have returned to a cautious attitude, and in the short term, the market may enter a short-term consolidation operation.

This week, PET prices first rose and then fell. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of May 16th, the average selling price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) was 6155 yuan/ton.
On the cost side, the main raw materials for polyester bottle flakes are PTA and ethylene glycol, and their prices are greatly affected by crude oil. On May 13th, the rise in crude oil prices pushed up the price of bottled chips, while on May 15th and 16th, crude oil prices fell, putting pressure on the price of bottled chips. On the 16th, the decline in international crude oil widened, and both polyester dual raw materials fell within the day, with insufficient support from the PET cost side. The quotation of the polyester bottle chip factory has been partially reduced by 50 yuan/ton, while some have remained stable, and the market focus has slightly declined.
On the supply side, the industry’s production has increased, and the supply of bottle chips is gradually becoming sufficient, which puts downward pressure on prices.
On the demand side, although the peak season for soft drink consumption is approaching and there is a demand for stocking downstream, the demand side is currently following up cautiously, and the overall supply and demand pattern has limited support for prices.
Overall, the core drivers of polyester bottle chip prices this week came from cost rebound and supply contraction, but the supply-demand contradiction has not fundamentally reversed. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to changes in external news, device changes, and demand recovery in the future.