Review of aluminum ingot spot market in 2019

1. Domestic spot price trend in 2019

In 2018, the aluminum price bottomed out, and throughout 2019, the overall domestic aluminum price trend is upward. According to the data of business agency, as of December 30, 2019, the average market price of domestic standard aluminum ingots is 14520 yuan / ton, 13473.33 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), up 7.77% in the year.

2. Brief introduction of domestic spot market by stages in 2019

Specifically, the annual spot aluminum ingot price trend is divided into seven stages:

The first stage: from January to the first ten days of February (before the lunar year), the downward market started in September 2018 was continued. The low price of aluminum ingots fluctuated, with the operating range of 13250-13500, and the operation of the low-level segment of the interval was the main one. The average market price on January 15 was 13223.33 yuan / ton, which was the valley value of the year. At this stage, the domestic aluminum price has touched the industry’s average cash cost line, and the operating pressure of some enterprises is close to the limit. The domestic aluminum industry began to start independent capacity removal. It is reported that in 2018, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum shut down in China has exceeded 3.2 million tons / year, of which about 80% shut down is concentrated in the second half of the year.

The capacity changes of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in 2018-2019 are as follows: (click the hyperlink below, and you can see)

Capacity changes of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in 2018-2019

The second stage: from the middle of February to the beginning of June, after the Spring Festival, the consumption of domestic aluminum ingots has improved. The market feedback that the demand side is good and the production capacity in the high cost area is reduced and the backward production capacity is eliminated initiatively begins to appear, supplemented by the information side bonus. For example, the Sino US trade negotiation is good, the domestic financial and monetary stimulus policies are frequent, and the market atmosphere is warmer.

2019 aluminum industry chain policy list (domestic part): (click the hyperlink below, you can see)

List of aluminum industry chain policies in 2019 (domestic)

However, in this stage, the main factor driving the price rise of aluminum ingots is the cost factor. In May, xijiaokou Xinfa and Xiaoyi Huaqing all stopped production due to red mud problems, and alumina raw materials were in short supply in China. The price suddenly rose to 3200, and the cost factor greatly pushed up the market price of aluminum ingots.

The third stage: from the beginning of June to the end of July, the aluminum oxide in the early stage rose sharply, obviously exceeding the bearing capacity of the downstream aluminum ingot manufacturers. The market gradually has price and no market, and just needs a small amount of procurement. After that, foreign Hyderabad resumed production, alumina import window opened, alumina market no longer, cost support no longer, superimposed peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is reduced, aluminum price quickly spit back the previous increase. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of aluminum ingots on July 3 was 13646.. 67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.06% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingots on May 27 of 14373.33 yuan / ton.

The fourth stage: from the beginning of August to the first ten days of September, about 1.5 million tons of operating capacity of Weiqiao in Shandong Province and Xinxing Xinfa in Xinjiang were reduced due to floods and electrolytic cell leakage accidents, respectively. The operating capacity of ABA aluminum plant in Sichuan Province and Guyang electrolytic aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia was also reduced due to accidents. The domestic operating aluminum capacity was greatly reduced, the social inventory was obviously moved down, the superimposed consumption was in the peak season, and the effects of both sides of supply and demand were overlapped Plus, push aluminum prices up rapidly. According to the data of business agency, on September 13, the average market price of aluminum ingots was 14563.33 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic spot aluminum ingots rose to 14500 for the first time in 2019.

The fifth stage: from late September to mid October, the aluminum price trend is good, and the industry’s profit holding level continues to improve. In the early stage, the replacement capacity and new capacity are put into production, and some of the production capacity has also begun to resume production, especially in the southwest and inner Mongolia regions, where the aluminum capacity is received, with frequent news, and the aluminum ingot price under pressure.

The sixth stage: from late October to early December, the price of aluminum ingots continued to fluctuate in the first line of 14000, with supply and demand basically balanced, and the multi empty game intensified. On the one hand, the social inventory moved down significantly, and the supply was tight, on the other hand, the market expected more production capacity.

The seventh stage: in late December, since December 16, the price of aluminum ingots has ushered in the third wave of small rise in the year. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of aluminum ingots on December 26 is 14600 yuan / ton, the peak value in 2019, and the price of domestic spot aluminum ingots is 14500 for the second time in 2019.

Analysis of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

1. Overview of the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

 
It is reported that alumina and coal power account for about 80% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. According to historical data and industry experience, alumina price is about 17.8% of electrolytic aluminum price.

2. Price trend of electrolytic aluminum industry chain products in 2019

(1) Price trend of aluminum and power coal in 2019

 
(2) Price trend of aluminum and aluminum fluoride in 2019

 
(3) Price trend of aluminum and cryolite in 2019

 
(4) Price trend of aluminum and caustic soda (related to alumina production) in 2019

 
As can be seen from the figure above, the price of electrolytic aluminum in 2019 has little correlation with the price of auxiliary materials, and the factors that have a large impact on the price are mainly reflected in the price change of raw aluminum oxide and the factors of supply and demand.

3. Expected increase of alumina production

The most upstream bauxite supply, Australia, China, Guinea, Brazil and India account for 86.3% of global production. In recent years, the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively tight due to environmental protection problems, but overseas bauxite is rich in energy and has a large window for import.

In 2019, the annual capacity of alumina is expected to increase by about 2.5 million tons. In 2020, 6.2 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation. At present, the capacity under construction in China is up to more than 10 million tons.

Data list of supply and demand over the years

1. Supply and demand data of electrolytic aluminum in recent 7 years

In the past seven years, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum increased first and then decreased, mainly due to the supply side reform of policy (2018) and the independent capacity reduction of the industry (2019). In 2018-2019, the aluminum plant was shut down and replaced. In the second half of 2019, due to unexpected shutdown, the supply end shrank significantly. It is expected that the output in 2019 will decrease by 1.5-1.6%. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China continues to move down significantly, and it is expected to decrease by 580000-590000 tons in 2019.

2. The growth of production and consumption of electrolytic aluminum in the past 7 years

 
The data shows that the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum are weak in recent two years, the domestic market is basically balanced, and the spot pressure is not big.

3. Trend of net export volume of electrolytic aluminum in recent 7 years

 
Expectation of electrolytic aluminum in 2020

1. Policy: favorable tariff

Since January 1, 2020, 107 items of goods, such as ferrochrome, will continue to be subject to export duties. The export tax rate or provisional export tax rate will be applied. The scope and tax rate of the goods will remain unchanged (see the official website of the Ministry of Finance for details). According to table 4, the tax rate of electrolytic aluminum and its downstream products has been greatly reduced.

2. Demand side may pick up

The recovery of domestic automobile industry and real estate industry will drive downstream aluminum consumption, and the overall supply pattern is expected to be better in China. In addition, aluminum for consumer goods industry and ultra-high pressure aluminum will become the growth point in 2020.

To sum up, electrolytic aluminum market will continue to recover in the near future in 2020, and the price operation range is expected to be 14000-15000 yuan / ton in the year.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride Market Price held steady this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9100 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9033 yuan / ton, down 0.73% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8600 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: up to now, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China is 10240 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is less than 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is currently available. In the near future, the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved. Because the downstream demand is not small, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is stable, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. At present, the downstream aluminum fluoride price is mainly stable, and only a few manufacturers slightly reduce the factory price.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: in the near future, the pressure on the price of hydrofluoric acid is relatively large, and the downstream market price of aluminum fluoride has not yet increased, and it is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to maintain stability in a short period of time.

In 2019, the PV industry is changing. Externally, the PV products have experienced the “double anti” in the United States, and the export is facing great challenges. Domestically, the PV policy is changing, the subsidy policy is declining, and the PV industry is facing great challenges. As for the polysilicon upstream products, it is naturally not optimistic. With the continuous expansion and production of enterprises, the domestic production capacity is released intensively, and the production pressure is released Double, but the demand stalls, the domestic operating rate also drops again and again, the price also shows a one-sided trend of concussion and downward, the enterprise profits are seriously compressed, it can be said that 2019 is the winter. Now our business club makes an inventory of some major events in polysilicon and photovoltaic industry in 2019:

1. One successful trial run of the world’s largest single set polysilicon project

On December 8, it was learned that the annual output of 120000 tons of polysilicon project (30000t in the first phase) of Xinjiang Dongfang hope new energy Co., Ltd., the world’s largest single polysilicon project contracted by China Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd., has successfully produced qualified trichlorosilane products on December 1 after comprehensive commissioning and combined transportation. Among them, the trichlorosilane conversion rate of the cold hydrogenation device is more than 20%, and the rectification rate is more than 20% The purity of trichlorosilane after distillation and purification of the unit has reached 99.9999%, which indicates that Xinjiang Dongfang hopes to achieve the full process connection of 120000 T / a polycrystalline silicon project (30000 T / A in the first phase), and the project is successfully put into operation once and enters the stage of full production and operation.

2. Phase I of Yongxiang new energy Sichuan Leshan high purity crystalline silicon project with an annual output of 50000 tons under Tongwei

At the end of 2018, Tongwei announced that the first phase of Yongxiang new energy Sichuan Leshan high purity crystalline silicon project with an annual output of 50000 tons was put into operation successfully. After the completion of the project, and after the completion of Baotou high-purity crystalline silicon project, the annual output of 60000 tons of high-purity polysilicon can be provided, which can meet the demand of more than 70% high-quality p-type and n-type single crystals, and alleviate the current situation of China’s high-purity polysilicon dependence on imports.

3. The United States will continue to impose double anti tax on China’s photovoltaic cells and modules

On February 8, the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) decided that the existing anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on crystal silicon and photovoltaic module products imported from China would continue to exist. The U.S. International Trade Commission believes that once the existing anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders are revoked, significant material damage will continue to be caused in the foreseeable future. David S. Johanson, chairman of the committee, and Irving A. Williamson, Meredith M. Broadbent, Rhonda K. schtlein and Jason E. Kearns, members of the committee, affirmed this.

4. Daquan and Jingke signed a 10000 ton polysilicon supply agreement and obtained a loan of 450 million yuan for the polysilicon expansion project

On February 21, Daquan New Energy announced that it has signed a one-year polysilicon supply agreement with the photovoltaic module manufacturer, Jingke energy. According to the terms of the supply agreement, Daquan new energy will supply 10350 tons of polysilicon to Jingke energy in 2019, and the price will be determined on a monthly basis according to the market price.

In addition, Daquan new energy has recently been approved by the Bank of China and will receive a loan of about 450 million yuan (about 66.5 million US dollars). Bank of China will provide a five-year fixed asset loan worth 400 million yuan, which Daquan new energy plans to use to further expand the capacity of its polysilicon production base in Xinjiang. The Bank of China will also provide a working capital loan of RMB 50 million to support Daquan’s daily operation. Last December, Daquan completed its 3B project ahead of schedule, which increased Daquan’s capacity to 30000 tons. At present, the company is working on its 4A project, which can further increase the production capacity to 70000 tons.

5. U.S. postpones tariff on Chinese products on March 1. Photovoltaic inverter will maintain 10% tariff

On the afternoon of February 24 local time, the seventh round of China US high level economic and trade consultation ended in Washington, D.C. U.S. President trump said substantive progress has been made in the negotiations, and the United States will postpone the measures originally scheduled to impose tariffs on Chinese products on March 1.

6. Wacker: falling polysilicon prices will reduce profits by 10-20%

Wacker chemical AG said it expects revenue to grow in the middle single digits, with sales of 4.98 billion euros last year due to increased polysilicon and chemicals sales this year. However, wacker’s board yesterday released its 2019 forecast, saying it expects EBITDA to fall 10-20% this year, mainly because the average price of polysilicon is lower than expected.

7. Another polycrystalline enterprise shut down

In March, Danone, Taiwan’s polysilicon manufacturer, announced that due to the downturn in the photovoltaic market in 2018, the price of the company’s main product polysilicon chips fell by 60%, and the market price is far lower than the production and manufacturing cash cost. Even though the price has stabilized slightly since 2019, the company has been committed to reducing various costs, and still can’t avoid the dilemma of more profits and more losses. As a result, the board of directors decided to shut down factories that were not economically efficient.

8. GCL poly and four customers signed a 6-gwa single crystal supply cooperation agreement

On the afternoon of June 4, during the SNEC exhibition in Shanghai, GCL poly signed a 6-gw single crystal supply cooperation agreement with atlas, Chint solar, daycare photovoltaic, Aikang photoelectric and other four customers.

In 2019, with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, more cost-effective products have become the common goal of the whole industry chain, among which the related technologies and products based on ingot single crystal silicon wafer have attracted wide attention. In the theme report before the signing ceremony, Dr. Wan yuepeng said that the mass production efficiency and component output power of poly-gcl ingot single crystal “Xin single crystal G3″ perc battery are basically the same as that of Czochralski single crystal, such as considering the advantages of light attenuation, realizing the same watt output with Czochralski single crystal module; Xin single crystal has a narrower resistivity distribution, which is conducive to the improvement of perc battery efficiency and n-type silicon chip; all square Silicon wafer has no chamfering, which is suitable for laminating and patching components, with better appearance; the carbon footprint is lower, which is a more green product, with obvious advantages in some overseas markets.

9. Poly GCL transfers 31.5% equity of Xinjiang polysilicon project

In September, recently, poly GCL (03800. HK) announced that its shareholders voted 99.99% to approve the transfer of 31.5% of its subsidiary, Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Jiangsu Zhongneng”), to Xuzhou Zhongping GCL industrial upgrading equity investment fund (hereinafter referred to as “Xuzhou Industrial Fund”) Equity. The transaction consideration is RMB 2.49 billion (the same below), and the funds will be used to repay the company’s debts and general operation.

10. Daquan new energy Q3 turned loss into profit on a year-on-year basis, with adjusted net profit increasing by 313% month on month

DQ. Us, a maker of high-purity polysilicon for the solar photovoltaic industry, released its financial report after trading in US stocks on Tuesday, with earnings from continuing operations of US $83.9 million, up 27% on a month on month basis. Gross profit was $18.1 million, up 110% month on month, and $8.6 million in the second quarter. The gross margin was 21.5%, 13% in the second quarter, up 65% month on month. Non GAAP EBITDA was $19.7 million, up 93% month on month; EBITDA margin was 23.5%, compared with 15.5% in the previous quarter.

The net profit from continuing operations was $4.9 million, with a net loss of $2.7 million in the previous quarter and a net profit of $4.2 million in the same period of the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 5 million US dollars, and the net loss of the same period of last year is 18.3 million US dollars. After adjustment, the net profit attributable to shareholders was US $9.5 million, compared with us $2.3 million in the previous quarter, and US $4.3 million in the same period of the previous year, with an increase of 313% on a month on month basis and 120% on a year-on-year basis. Earnings per share was $0.37, compared with a loss of $0.16 in the previous quarter and $1.39 in the same period last year. According to the non GAAP, the adjusted earnings per share was US $0.69, compared with us $0.17 in the previous quarter and US $0.33 in the same period of last year, an increase of 305% on a month on month basis and 109% on a year-on-year basis. Polysilicon production was 9437 tons, compared with 7151 tons in the second quarter of 2019, an increase of 31%. The sales volume of polysilicon was 9238 tons, 7130 tons in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 30% on a month on month basis.

11. Longji subsidiary’s further production expansion will invest in the construction of 10GW / a monocrystalline silicon wafer project

On November 25, Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the review opinions on the energy saving report of the construction project of Chuxiong Longji silicon material Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 10GW in phase II, indicating that the energy saving report of the construction project of the company with an annual output of 10GW in phase II has been approved.

The construction content and scale of the second phase of the 10GW / a monocrystalline silicon chip construction project of Chuxiong Longji silicon material Co., Ltd.: Leasing customized workshops and supporting production and living building facilities (to be constructed by the government), purchasing production equipment, testing instruments, tools and instruments such as diamond wire slicer, degumming machine, inserting and cleaning machine, sorting machine, etc. after the project is completed and put into operation, the annual output of 10GW will be realized, about 20 Production capacity of 100 million monocrystalline silicon wafers. The project is a new project in Longji, Chuxiong. The plant, production equipment and auxiliary production equipment used in the project are not shared with phase I project.

Price trend of pure benzene in 2019

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of pure benzene in 2019 is fluctuating. As of December 19, the average price of mainstream pure benzene production enterprises was 5760 yuan / ton, up 1360 yuan / ton or 30.91% compared with 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 4).

The lowest average price of the listing price of pure benzene enterprises in the whole year is from April 3 to April 8, with a price of 4200 yuan / ton; the highest average price is from September 18 to September 22, with a price of 5870 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 1670 yuan / ton.

From the above figure, there are four obvious rising stages of pure benzene.

First stage up and down:

The average listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose from 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of January (January 4) to 4930 yuan / ton at the highest price on February 26, an increase of 12.05%. From March 4 to April 4, it reached the lowest price of 4200 yuan / ton, down 14.81%

In January and February, the port inventory of pure benzene was higher than 200000 tons, and the downstream product profit was high, the unit operation rate was good, and the demand for pure benzene was good.

Affected by the water incident on March 21, the safety committee of the State Council issued an emergency notice to comprehensively carry out the centralized investigation and treatment of potential safety hazards of hazardous chemicals. Some chemical enterprises are temporarily shut down due to the impact. The downstream aniline production involves nitrification reaction, there are many enterprises with limited production and stop, and the demand for pure benzene is limited.

Second stage up and down:

On June 10, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose rapidly. On June 10, the average price of 4436 yuan / ton rose to the highest price of 5240.2 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 18.13%. From July 26 to August 12, it reached the lowest price of 5025 yuan / ton, down 4.11%

In the middle of June, the domestic pure benzene port inventory began to drop sharply, and the downstream styrene was good to stimulate, so the price of pure benzene began to rise. By July, there was a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, which resulted in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea. A large number of South Korean sources turned to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in the export of pure benzene to China, stimulating domestic prices to continue to rise.

In the later period, the external market weakened and the downstream market was weak, which brought negative impact.

Third stage up and down:

The third phase of the increase followed the end of the second phase. On August 14 (average price: 5025 yuan / ton), it rose to the highest price of 5870 yuan / ton on September 18, an increase of 16.82%. From September 22 to October 31, it reached the lowest price of 5260 yuan / ton, down 10.39%

The port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot supply of pure benzene market was tight. In addition, the Saudi incident in September triggered a sharp rise in crude oil, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene.

At the end of September, the impact of Saudi Arabia incident subsided, crude oil and external market fell; and the downstream environmental protection inspection, some factories stopped production and limited production, just in short supply, the market fell back. After the festival, the supply of hydrogenated benzene increased, and the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on pure benzene.

The fourth stage of growth:

December 8 (average price 5300 yuan / ton) began to rise, as of December 20, the price was 5760 yuan / ton, up 8.68%.

The port inventory of pure benzene broke through a new low and kept below 100000 tons. The market negotiation atmosphere improved, the spot supply of pure benzene was tight, and the price picked up.

Crude oil soars in 2019:

As of December 20, 2019, the annual increase of international oil price is more than 30%.

Brent oil price rose 35.41% in the first quarter, fell 2.71% in the second quarter, rose 2.01% in the third quarter and rose 10.78% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 34.39%.

WTI oil prices rose 32.19% in the first quarter, 2.92% in the second quarter, 3.28% in the third quarter and 11.97% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 32.54%.

In 2019, the international oil market is under the background of Sino US trade war and oil economic slowdown. OPEC’s production reduction has been twists and turns, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have deepened. From the perspective of the future market, there are two major factors affecting the international oil price in 2020: 1. The implementation of OPEC + production reduction; 2. The actual decline of crude oil demand brought about by the global economic cooling. We should also continue to pay attention to the possible variables in the global trade environment.

In 2019, pure benzene port inventory continued to decrease:

At the beginning of 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 200000 tons, and by December 20, 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 82000 tons, a decrease of 118000 tons, or 59%.

In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. At the beginning of the quarter, the port inventory was about 200000 tons, and at the end of the quarter, it was about 247000 tons. In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased by 47000 tons, or 23.5%.

In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased, about 211000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 36000 tons or 14.57%.

In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased significantly, with 147000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 64000 tons or 30.33%.

In the fourth quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the port inventory at the end of the quarter was about 82000 tons. In the fourth quarter, pure benzene port inventory decreased by 65000 tons, a decrease of 44.22%.

Downstream consumption of pure benzene:

In the past five years, the downstream products of pure benzene have developed rapidly, such as styrene and caprolactam, aniline and adipic acid, and phenol ketone. As the largest downstream of pure benzene, styrene is widely used in the production of plastics and other products, and its end products are mostly used in the field of people’s livelihood. With the continuous development of domestic economic situation, the demand for styrene is increasing day by day, which promotes the domestic styrene production capacity to expand year by year, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. In 2019, the downstream aniline plant will be shut down permanently, and the demand for pure benzene will decrease to some extent, but the overall demand is relatively stable.

Future forecast:

In 2020, the price of pure benzene mainly focuses on crude oil, external pure benzene and downstream demand. At present, crude oil is supported by OPEC’s deepening production reduction and the improvement of Sino-U.S. trade relations. The demand for downstream styrene and other products is strong, the production capacity is likely to continue to increase, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. So at present, it is very difficult for the price of pure benzene in 2020 to appear the situation in the first quarter of 2019. In the later stage, the price will continue to maintain a high level of shock or rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on December 24, the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly operated in a cold way, and some areas were explored in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of primary and high-end phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, which was about 15 yuan / ton lower than a week ago, down 3.02%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in recent years, the phosphorus ore market has continued to maintain stable consolidation and weak operation, and the supply of goods is basically normal. At present, as of December 24, the price of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province has remained stable as a whole, and the price of low-grade phosphorus ore in some manufacturers has slightly decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton, the price of 30% grade mainstream phosphate ore factory / vehicle board with tax included reference is 330-410 yuan / ton, 28% grade mainstream phosphate ore factory / vehicle The reference price of plate tax is 300-350 yuan / ton; the reference price of 28% grade phosphate rock in Huifa, Fuquan, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago; the reference price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago; the main factory tax price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hebei is 530 yuan / ton stable The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore vehicle plate in Yunnan is about 275 yuan / ton, the price of 29% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 320 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei is about 430-440 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the current yellow phosphorus market demand is weak, the on-site enterprises collect funds at the end of the year, collect funds at a low price, the market transaction price continues to decline, and the current acceptance transaction reference in Yunnan is 17400-17700 yuan / ton. The weakness of phosphoric acid market fell, mainly due to the low price of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, in terms of the current market, most of the mining enterprises are in the state of limited production and guaranteed price. Some of the mining enterprises in Hubei Province have recently stopped operation, and the annual close is near. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will not improve in a short period of time, and it is still weak and stable.