On February 18, China’s domestic p-xylene price trend was temporarily stable

On February 17, the PX commodity index was 50.40, the same as yesterday, down 50.78% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.65% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable About 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 17, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 727-729 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 747-749 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the market price of domestic Px, and the market price trend of PX is temporarily stable.

Brent crude oil futures rose to $57.67 a barrel, or $0.35 a barrel, after the New York Stock Exchange was closed for “President’s Day”. In its latest oil market report, the International Energy Agency revised its oil demand forecast substantially and predicted that consumption would actually shrink by 435000 barrels per day, the first significant year-on-year decline since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Previously, the agency expected consumption to increase by 800000b / D over the same period last year. In the whole year of 2020, the International Energy Agency cut the growth rate of demand by 365 thousand barrels per day to 825 thousand barrels per day. This will be the lowest annual growth rate since 2011, slightly lower than the growth figure in 2019, and 2019 itself is a year of decline. The rise of crude oil price is good for domestic chemicals price, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the recent price has dropped slightly to the level of 4400-4500 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp increase of production capacity, PTA’s price will be in a weak situation, and short processing fee is still the main operation idea. In the short term, PTA processing fee is at a very low level, while the upstream price is relatively resistant to decline due to the rise of crude oil, and the cost support appears. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the terminal weaving is basically in a state of stagnation. In the state of weak demand, PTA is difficult to form an effective rise. We think PTA is in a dilemma at present, or maintain the trend of low-level oscillation. Even with the support of cost, the price will rise by increasing the repair and processing fee, and the increase range is very limited. PTA market price will fall, and the trend of p-xylene price will be stable temporarily.

In recent years, crude oil price fluctuates, which has a certain negative impact on xylene market. In addition, there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand of the terminal. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.