1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of January 13, the market of propylene oxide fell, with an average price of 9650 yuan / ton, down 2.03% compared with last Friday (January 10), and 6.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. On the 13th, the main quotation of propylene oxide in China was 9600-9750 yuan / ton. On January 13, the propylene oxide commodity index was 60.06, down 1.25 points from December 12, down 40.64% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), and up 44.03% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide fell on the 13th. Downstream demand weakened, high-end shipments were blocked, main factories lowered their prices, and actively shipped. Downstream polyether users’ enthusiasm for bargain hunting and replenishment slightly increased, and the inventory of propylene oxide manufacturers was low, and the transaction was stable. On the 13th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 9750 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9750-9850 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9450-9600 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9600-9700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on January 13, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong still rose. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on January 7 and 8, it was stable on January 9, it was continuously increased on October 10 and 11, and it was stable on the whole line on December 12. Today, it rose again by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7000-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. The lower soft foam polyether market fell on the 13th, with limited new orders. Hard foam polyether market moves down in a narrow range, with a small number of new orders mainly negotiated.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 13, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquid ammonia (3.44%), ethylene glycol (3.06%) and ethylene (2.40%). There are 8 kinds of commodities in the decline on a ring basis. The products with the first 3 drops are chloroform (-4.76%), hydrogen peroxide (-2.56%) and propylene oxide (-2.03%). The 13 day average rose or fell 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously in recent years, and the cost support has been greatly increased. With the end of the downstream pre Festival stock demand, it is expected that the propylene oxide market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the transactions in the upstream and downstream mainstream markets.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.36% lower than that of the same period last month and 4.15% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

2、 Market analysis

Product: stable operation of domestic alcohol market. Henan’s market is stable with stable price; Northeast’s market is weak with stable price; Shandong’s short-term logistics has little impact on the price; East China’s current supply is small with high market price supported by the supply. The downstream demand in Guangxi continues to slow down, the enterprise quotation is stable, a small number of customers just need to maintain procurement; the market price in Guangdong before the Spring Festival is still dominated by high price consolidation; the enterprise quotation in Anhui is still relatively stable, the overall market performance is light, and the enterprises in other regions have little change.

Industry chain: corn: the price of corn has been slightly adjusted during the stabilization. Before and after the lunar new year, the grain sales of grass-roots growers will be finished, and the marketable time of the market will be tightened again, so it is difficult for the spot mainstream market to fluctuate substantially. The period of grain sales before the festival is shortened, farmers are faced with the demand of cash realization and loan repayment before the festival, and the grass-roots grain sales in the main production area have increased. Some processing enterprises will end their periodic stock preparation, and the purchase and sale will turn to light. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but the signs of bottoming have been shown. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. Due to the pulling effect of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable around the first and middle of January.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to be stable, the raw material acetic acid rose and then stabilized, and the cost of ethyl acetate was dispersed. The substantial demand for ethyl acetate in the downstream is weak, but the falling price does not attract the downstream purchase. The market is passive and the transaction is light and stalemate. Some ethyl acetate manufacturers stop during the Spring Festival, and the overall social inventory growth is slow. It is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that the short-term domestic ethanol market finishing operation. Large factories in Northeast China have low inventory and stable shipment; however, small factories have high inventory, positive shipment mentality and weak market price due to the limitation of transportation; East China’s arrival in Hong Kong in January is not large, production enterprises start less, market supply is limited, and downstream demand is limited, so it is expected that the short-term market will remain in order; Henan Province’s production enterprises will be loaded due to the reduction of liquor and chemical industry Under normal operation, short-term market weakness is expected to be consolidated. At present, the production of existing devices in Guangxi is stable, but the Spring Festival is approaching, and the downstream rigid demand is slightly insufficient. Some enterprises have low inventory price before the festival, and it is expected that the short-term market will be weak and stable. At present, the production enterprises in Guangdong Province have less startup of devices, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and the supply side is favorable for the market price, and the market price is expected to be high. Hubei has enterprise parking plan, and the market is expected to be high The price is high and stable; the downstream demand in Anhui and Sichuan is close to the end, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the market price is expected to be stable.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s o-xylene Sinopec contract quotation was stable, and the o-xylene market remained stable. As of January 11, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the week. The price is 7.35% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

External offer

Commodity name quotation type port price time

O-xylene FOB US $848.92/t in the Gulf of Mexico 2020-1-10

O-xylene CFR China $835.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 825.00 USD / ton 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB South Korea $804.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB US Gulf 843.41 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR China 789.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 785.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB South Korea 758.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2020-1-3

As can be seen from the table, the price of o-benzene in the external market rose sharply this week. On January 10, this week’s price of benzene in China was US $835 / T, 46 / T higher than that of the previous week’s price of 789 / T on January 3; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia increased by US $46 / T and US $40 / T in half. This week, the external price of ortho benzene rose sharply, the price of imported ortho benzene rose, the price of port ortho benzene rose, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the overall external price rise is more favorable for the future market ortho benzene.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

It can be seen from the rise and fall chart of the industrial chain of o-benzene that the price of mixed xylene rose this week, the price of raw materials of o-benzene rose, the profit of o-benzene production fell, and the pressure of o-benzene rise increased. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, the downstream demand was general, the growth momentum of ortho benzene was small, and the downward pressure remained. In the future, the market of benzenes is both positive and negative.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, the price of o-xylene raw materials rose this week, the cost of o-xylene increased, the pressure of o-xylene rising was great, and the external quotation rose sharply, driving the domestic o-xylene market; in the downstream, the phthalic anhydride market fell, and the pressure of o-xylene falling still had little momentum to rise; as the Spring Festival approached, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to prepare goods rose, and the downstream demand rose, In the future, the growth momentum of orthobenzene increased. On the whole, the rising power and falling pressure of ortho benzene Market in the future are increased, while the strong shock and stability of ortho benzene Market in the future are mainly maintained, and there is a larger rising power at the same time.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 24 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous day, up 23.17% compared with the same period last year. On January 8, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market is in a weak and stable operation in the near future. The support of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is weakened, the downstream rigid demand is limited, the actual trading is average, the enterprise’s goods are acceptable, and the market is weak as a whole. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of January 9, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5700 yuan / ton. The enterprise adjusted the price according to itself.

Industrial chain: in recent years, the phosphorus ore market has continued to maintain stable consolidation, weak operation, and the supply of goods is basically normal. It is estimated that the phosphorus ore market will not improve in a short period of time, and it is still weak and stable. Under the condition of low start-up rate, yellow phosphorus spot is tight, and the adjustment space of yellow phosphorus is still limited near the end of the year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 8, 2020, among which the top three commodities are bisphenol A (4.94%), acetic acid (2.01%) and toluene (1.64%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products were sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%), ethyl acetate (- 3.39%) and butanone (- 2.59%). The average price of this day is 0.02%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, at present, the price of phosphoric acid is mainly stable and consolidated, the support of raw material end is limited, and the terminal demand is general. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid is still mainly stable and stable, so it is difficult to improve.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose slightly on January 8, 2020. The average price of formaldehyde on January 7, 2020 was 1046.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde on January 8, 2020 was 1053.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64%. The current price is 8.80% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market price of formaldehyde in China has risen slightly. As of August 8, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, that of South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is about 1180 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Hebei Kaiyue formaldehyde plant of 400000 tons / year was shut down for maintenance. Formaldehyde manufacturers are affected by environmental protection control device maintenance, formaldehyde market supply inventory decreased, the price slightly increased.

Industrial chain: in recent days, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling and rebounded; in terms of main production areas, Guanzhong general has increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1860 yuan / ton, with smooth shipment and most enterprises stopping selling; the Northern Line of Inner Mongolia has concentrated at 1730-1750 yuan / ton; Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other places have also kept pace with the increase. Support formaldehyde. The downstream market started to be sluggish, with general demand. The price of formaldehyde increased slightly while the rigid demand for procurement was maintained.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upstream continues to rise, and the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises increases. However, due to the impact of environmental protection, the operating rate in the downstream is general, procurement is limited, and the delivery pressure of formaldehyde manufacturers is large. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main trend in the near future.