1、 Overall trend
On February 28, the LLDPE commodity index was 65.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.47% from 117.56, the highest point in the cycle (December 11, 2013), and up 0.99% from 64.64, the lowest point on February 19, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
The LDPE commodity index on February 28 was 58.85, unchanged from yesterday, 48.07% lower than 113.33 (2013-12-08), the highest point in the cycle, and 1.00% higher than 58.27, the lowest point on February 19, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
On February 28, the HDPE commodity index was 59.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.52% from 102.33 (2014-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.26% from 57.95, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
On February 28, the polyethylene market continued to be weak, showing a trend of horizontal consolidation, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business association was about 7526.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7383.33 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 6816.67 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the prices of LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China were stable. International crude oil continued to decline, with a large range. On the 28th, the market reported a decline, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. The futures market fell, and the international crude oil continued to decline, petrochemical inventory rose slightly, and the strength of the on-site supply cost was average. Business delivery is not smooth, small margin shipping based.
| PVA FIBER |
Upstream: international oil prices fell for the fifth day in a row on February 27 (Thursday), hitting the lowest level in more than a year. Oil distribution fell to a new low since late December 2018, and US crude oil continued to brush its 13-month low to US $47.84, continuing to dominate the oil market due to concerns about the slowing economy and demand. Light crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.64, or 3.37%, to $47.09 a barrel as of February 27. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell $1.25, or 2.77%, to $52.18 a barrel.
Futures trend: according to the monitoring of business club, on February 28, the opening price of main contracts of l1905 polyethylene futures was 8635, the highest price was 8635, the lowest price was 8555, the closing price was 8580, the former settlement price was 8655, the settlement price was 8590, down 75, down 0.87%, the volume was 222262, the position was 413566, and the daily increase was – 2846. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)
3、 Future forecast
International oil price continues to be weak, cost support is limited, downstream factories return to work slowly, more on-demand procurement, market entry atmosphere is relatively light, it is expected to continue to be weak in the near future.
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