According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (1.20-1.24), with an average market price of 247920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 247210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.29%.

Tin prices have risen and fallen this week. Recently, the trading performance of the spot tin market has been relatively flat, with most trading companies’ transactions mainly scattered. Although some imported tin has arrived at the port, due to the large pre-sale quantity in the early stage, the spot resources of imported tin still appear tight. In addition, with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, most trading companies’ inventory remains at a low level, and the market may face further tightening of spot resources in the future. Judging from the tight supply situation, there is still good support for tin prices.

Fundamentally, the import volume of tin ore has remained at a low level for several consecutive months. The prolonged shutdown in the Wa State region has had a significant impact that continues to ferment and become apparent. As a result, the processing cost of tin ore has fallen to a low point in recent years, and this trend is having a significant impact on the smelting end. The operating rate of refineries in Yunnan region has declined, and the year-on-year growth rate of refined tin production has also shown a downward trend.

On the supply and demand side, the new energy industry and the electronics industry have shown good recovery expectations. Especially prominent is the increasing demand for tin in the electric vehicle industry and renewable energy sector. These positive factors are expected to provide stable support for tin prices in the medium to long term.

Based on comprehensive analysis, in the short term, influenced by multiple factors such as low inventory levels and policy adjustments, market sentiment is gradually tending towards a cautious trend, and tin prices will continue to fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23rd, the average selling price of PET is 6347 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments after an upward trend.

Overnight crude oil prices continue to decline, resulting in weak cost support for PET. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal market is gradually entering a holiday mode and withdrawing from transactions, resulting in a generally low willingness of downstream enterprises to restock.

Taking into account these factors, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market price may show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, mainly fluctuating with changes in the cost side. However, the exact market trend still needs to be further observed in terms of the status of subsequent production facilities, actual demand, and the cost support effect brought about by changes in crude oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24626 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 6.31% from the zinc price of 25846 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the suspension of interest rate cuts and policy risks have put pressure on prices. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches and consumer seasonality weakens, the marginal pressure at both macro and micro levels has increased, leading to a decline in zinc prices.

Supply and demand side

The supply situation of raw material zinc concentrate has improved, and the focus of domestic and international processing fees has shifted upwards. Refinery raw material inventory has rebounded to conventional levels. As a result, the extent of profit loss has narrowed, and the supply of refined zinc continues to rebound month on month. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has not been a significant increase in volume yet. The zinc ingot import window has been closed for a long time, with only a small amount of supply flowing in, which has limited impact on the market.

Demand side

Terminal consumption is showing a trend of differentiation. The intensification of the trade in policy has provided support for automobile and home appliance consumption, leading to a surge in the wind and solar industry at the end of the year, while infrastructure consumption remains stable. However, there has been a seasonal decline in galvanized exports, and the real estate industry has not yet shown significant improvement. There is an expectation of seasonal decline in initial consumption, but the demand for stocking up before the Spring Festival is still strong, providing some support for the market.

comprehensive analysis

With the release of negative factors and the absence of significant supply side volume, seasonal accumulation is expected to be limited, and the downward space for zinc prices will also be limited.

Before the Spring Festival in January, the domestic ABS market in China showed a positive trend, with spot prices of various grades showing an upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11875 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry decreased compared to the previous period, and the industry load level decreased by about 3% to 7% compared to the first half of the month. Mainly due to the decrease in load of the Tianjin Dagu plant. Recently, the average weekly production has decreased to around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has been simultaneously lowered to 160000 tons. Although the overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged, the pre-sales of petrochemical plants before the holiday have been basically completed, and the inventory pressure in the future market has decreased. Overall, the recent supply side has provided sufficient support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Prior to the holiday, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS showed a narrow consolidation, and the overall support for the cost side of ABS was still acceptable. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage of low load operation in the industry, it will take some time for supply to return, and the inventory position in the industry is low, resulting in strong prices. Downstream purchasing power has weakened before the holiday, but the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

Recently, the butadiene market has also remained strong at a high level, and the available supply of goods in the spot market has remained relatively tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. But with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, the downstream high-level receiving ability gradually declines. At the same time, with the expectation of increased production capacity in the future, it is expected that butadiene may enter a weak consolidation market.

Styrene has recently risen and then leveled off. In late January, the return of styrene plants is common, and there is also a situation of accumulated cargo upon arrival at the port, leading to a relaxation of supply shortages. However, as upstream crude oil prices rise, the future market for styrene is bound to be boosted by raw materials such as pure benzene. Downstream demand remains stable before the holiday, with a focus on price consolidation.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been completely released, and downstream purchasing power has gradually weakened in the early stage. The terminal factories are gradually going on vacation, and the overall load position has fallen. Entering late January, as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises are stimulated by the rising cost of ABS and are entering the market to purchase, with operations leaning towards pre holiday warehouse building. In addition, with the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances to stimulate the market, terminal products in the future may continue to receive policy support. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

Before the Spring Festival holiday in January, the domestic ABS market saw an increase. The three upstream materials have leveled off, providing sufficient comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some warehouse building projects entering the market. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 19th, the average price of acetic acid was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3010 yuan/ton on January 13th, with a month on month increase of 2.03%.

This week, the acetic acid market remained stable with small fluctuations, and enterprise quotations fluctuated. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity is relatively high, and factories are actively shipping. In some regions, downstream goods are well received, and enterprise shipments are relatively smooth. However, in the North China and Shandong regions, enterprise shipments are poor, and downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high. The market price of acetic acid has shifted downward, with the main focus on CEOs in the East and South China regions, and manufacturer quotations remain stable.

As of January 19th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 13th/ On January 19th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2895 yuan/ton/ -15

Shandong region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2890 yuan/ton/ -20

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream methanol market has fallen from a high level. From January 13th to 19th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2739 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.58%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic methanol market strengthened, but after reaching a high level, the market was generally buying gas. Later, with the increase in shipping costs, production companies offered discounts and shipped, causing the domestic methanol market price to fall.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment. On January 19th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5067.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to the price of 5052.50 yuan/ton on January 13th. The upstream acetic acid market showed mixed ups and downs, with the cost of acetic anhydride generally average. Downstream demand was the main factor, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The supply and demand in the market were relatively balanced, and the price of acetic anhydride was adjusted upwards.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high, the sales pressure on the supply side still exists, and the on-site trading is average. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market may be weak, and attention should be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.