This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream cost support weakened, and the market price of nylon filament slightly fell. The cost side support is weak, downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm is not high, multi-dimensional holding of essential orders, and the demand side has not shown significant improvement. Negative factors dominate the market, and the nylon fiber market price is weak and declining. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the cost side and changes in downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly decreased this week (December 16-20, 2024). As of December 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.57%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.34%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

Weakness and decline in raw materials

This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream raw material caprolactam plant for nylon filament was operating normally, with sustained high inventory and low downstream purchasing willingness. The trading atmosphere was calm, and the caprolactam market price continued to decline. Lack of confidence in the industrial chain, shrinking actual trading volume in the nylon PA6 chip market, with no positive support from both upstream and downstream, and insufficient confidence among industry players. As of December 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11216 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%.

Supply demand

The operating rate of nylon filament market equipment is relatively high, currently operating at around 8.4%. The inventory of various manufacturers continues to accumulate, and the overall supply performance on site is loose, with average supply side support; There is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn factories have a certain degree of risk aversion. They hold onto multiple essential orders, and it is difficult to find positive support from the demand side during the week.

Future forecast

The market for nylon filament raw material caprolactam is expected to continue its downward trend, with inventory pressure remaining high and supply side still under pressure. Spot prices are weakly stable and consolidating, market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. Terminal market demand remains weak, with bearish factors prevailing in the market. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly experience a weak downward trend.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.23% compared to the zinc price of 25980 yuan/ton on December 9th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the domestic zinc market was positively influenced by the macroeconomic conference, showing an overall trend of first rising and then falling. The content of the meeting has significantly boosted the domestic economy, driving up the price of zinc in the middle of the week. However, by the weekend, the price of zinc futures had fallen slightly, and the market volatility was more intense.

Supply and demand side

The circulation of spot goods has been tightened due to the maintenance of some smelters, and spot prices have generally remained firm. Prices have been raised within the week. The downstream market has a poor receiving atmosphere near absolute high prices and premiums, and the overall trading atmosphere is slightly average.

Inventory situation

Shanghai area: The goods will arrive gradually within the week, but there are significant restrictions on circulation. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is strong, and inventory is gradually accumulating. Guangdong region: Refinery maintenance and delivery are limited, downstream point price outflow mainly follows market fluctuations, and inventory continues to decline. Tianjin region: Northern galvanizing production has improved, procurement has gradually improved, and inventory has slightly decreased.

comprehensive analysis

This week, the zinc market was boosted by the macroeconomic conference and showed an overall trend of increased volatility. Next week, the market will continue to monitor macroeconomic data and changes in supply and demand, and it is expected that there will be adjustments in the premium and delivery situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in mid December, with some brand products experiencing price increases. As of December 17th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7641.67 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.27% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the supply risk has increased due to the geopolitical situation in Syria. At the same time, the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present, coupled with the expectation of increased demand in Asia, international oil prices have recently fluctuated and risen, strengthening support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, the tight supply in North China has improved, and the favorable supply has weakened, resulting in a decline in prices. Propane is operating steadily in response to the trend of crude oil, PDH remained stable at a high level due to its influence. Overall, the recent trend of PP raw materials is still acceptable, and the support on the cost side is also acceptable.

Supply side:

In December, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and production of PP enterprises in China, and the overall load level continued the stable trend of the previous period. Overall, the industry’s overall load has only experienced a narrow decline from nearly 75% in the first half of the year to around 73%. The domestic PP shipment volume is flat, with a weekly output of about 670000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some newly put into operation facilities are unstable, supporting the mentality of some operators. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At present, the demand side of PP tends towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The slow release of some pre holiday replenishment demand has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

Future forecast

The PP market prices in China remained stable in December. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range is flat, but the production situation of some of the put into operation equipment is unstable. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption and tend to focus on restocking for essential needs. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1002 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2% and an increase of 18.93% compared to last year. On December 15th, the chemical index was 839 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.30% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak and declining, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 870-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 50th week of 2024 (12.9-12.13), there were 0 products with rising prices, 1 product with falling prices, and 5 products with zero rising and falling prices in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodity experiencing a decline is caustic soda (-2.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.37%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been weak, the alumina industry has been fluctuating, and non aluminum industry demand has been weak. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The nickel market rebounded slightly this week (12.7-12.13). According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, spot nickel prices were reported at 130641 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.63%.

Macroscopic aspect: From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference determined that the monetary policy in 2025 should be “moderately loose”, the fiscal policy should be more forceful and awesome, and the policy “combination fist” should be played well to boost confidence of all parties. Supporting the rebound of nickel prices.

On the supply side: The global nickel supply surplus continues, with Russia’s major producer Nornickel stating on Tuesday that the global nickel surplus will remain at around 150000 tons by 2025. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, and weekly growth has weakened. As of December 13th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 30564 tons, an increase of 985 tons during the week; On December 13th, LME nickel inventory was 164508 tons, an increase of 756 tons for the week.

On the demand side: Electroplating and alloy consumption remain stable, while stainless steel maintains a state of “high output+high inventory+demand neutrality”, with weak fluctuations. We look forward to favorable support from policy meetings. As of December 13th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13192.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month.

Market forecast: There is no significant improvement in demand, buying at low prices, and inventory pressure. There is significant resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices, and it is expected that macroeconomic policy benefits will continue. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.