Since the first half of 2017, the international crude oil 45-55 US dollars / barrel range of shocks, the downstream unit unit down, the market to inventory more obvious, the polyethylene market in the low demand for high supply under pressure, showing the trend of shock down, the current demand Did not give the market a strong support, the second half of the polyethylene market may have to look forward to?

2017 has been half past, look back on the performance of the crude oil market: desolate tragic. International oil prices overall range of shocks to run, OPEC cut and the US shale oil production is the dominant factor in the market and oil prices. In the first quarter, OPEC cut production rate far more than expected, to provide strong support for oil prices, the international oil prices in a relatively high level of smooth operation. However, the second quarter, the US crude oil production continues to grow, the global oil inventories remain high, Libya and Nigeria, a substantial recovery in production and other factors intensified the market for oil-producing countries to cut production doubts, the international oil price shocks down.

On the trend of ethylene monomer point of view, January-February by the strong regional demand, part of the equipment overhaul, tight supply boost, ethylene prices soared, then into the March, ethylene market demand is slow, especially in Northeast Asia market pressure , The supply pressure is obvious, leading to ethylene prices into the downstream channel.

As can be seen from the figure, the US dollar market turmoil down, in the second half of 2016, especially in the fourth quarter, low inventory, brokers, sets of insurance to take the initiative to make up inventory, resulting in inventory hidden, the pressure behind rather than the real elimination The Obviously after the Spring Festival, the high growth of raw material supply, mainly from the fourth quarter of strong reinforcement, and the actual demand is weak, with the price decline, the market opened a long way to inventory. From the product point of view, the largest decline in its LDPE, from the market point of view, the Southeast Asian market is better than the Northeast Asian market.

2016 domestic prices rose significantly, especially in the second half, futures continue to pull up the spot, both inside and outside the spread after a large number of traders linked to imports of ocean cargo, this part of the incremental impact in the 2017 January to April has been revealed; 2017 domestic prices Fell more than foreign, inside and outside the spread again to upside down, and even produce re-export, export demand, but the actual operation is limited.

Review of foreign equipment maintenance point of view, the first half of 2017, foreign equipment maintenance mainly concentrated in March to May, mostly concentrated in Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and other near foreign sources, the relative capacity is not, the market influence is small, into the third quarter , Part of the device to resume production, supply pressure increased.

In summary: Looking back at the first half of the market, look forward to the second half of the opportunity, we obviously found that long and short game, comparable, coupled with the external market, the external fund participation is not strong, the market is in shock, then the current support is: , The upstream petrochemical stocks without pressure, brokers and downstream inventory is low, followed by the back of the demand gradually to the good, bad factors suppress is: the supply is about to return, environmental policy + cash flow effects, downstream demand to follow up, the import volume is not To determine, so the second half of the year, polyethylene in the supply of no growth rate, some tight supply situation, the “gold nine silver ten” is expected to continue to increase, the overall probability of polyethylene market, the greater the probability of shock, the market price change ultimately depends on Market inventory accumulation and capital participation.

Scientists worry that they may be forced to stop testing or shut down laboratory equipment because the ongoing blockade of Qatar is threatening their supply of helium. The Gulf countries supply helium to global hospitals and laboratories. However, Saudi Arabia and seven neighboring countries have blocked most of their import and export business in June this year in a political dispute surrounding Qatar’s claim to support terrorism. To this end, Qatar had to shut down two helium production plants.

“The situation is changing every day, so we are paying close attention every day.” Sophia Hayes, a chemist at the University of Washington, who studies nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, said, “I am very worried.” Her research relies on continuous liquid helium supply to cool Superconducting magnets in laboratory spectrum analyzers. Liquid helium is also used in laboratory low temperature studies.

Another scientist who asked for anonymity said that its laboratory was reserving helium available for nuclear magnetic resonance instruments. If necessary, a young colleague who uses helium in large numbers has agreed to reduce its work to help solve the helium supply problem. “This will have a negative impact on his career, and all senior colleagues will do everything possible to avoid that,” the scientists said.

Qatar is the world’s largest helium exporter and second largest helium producer, meeting 25% of global helium demand. Phil Kornbluth, a consultant specializing in the helium industry in Bridgewater, New Jersey, said the blockade would inevitably lead to helium shortages in the coming months.

The country closest to Qatar may be the most affected. However, such as India, Japan, Singapore and other East Asian countries are also at risk. “No one will be affected,” said William Halperin, a researcher at Low Temperature Physics at Northwestern University.

The lab only accounts for about 6% of the helium market. Most of the helium is used in the electronics industry, hospital nuclear magnetic resonance imaging scanners, and airships and balloons. This means that when the supply is limited, suppliers tend to give priority to meet the needs of large customers, rather than scientists.

Many researchers have hoped that helium supply disruptions will not happen again because a large number of new plants have been built in Qatar and helped ensure global helium supply. However, Hayes said that taking into account the political turmoil in the Middle East, she warned the scientific community not to be complacent.

The European Commission said that the anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties imposed on organic coated plates imported from China will soon expire, prompting EU manufacturers to review them before they expire.

In 2013, the EU imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on China’s imports of organic coated boards for a period of five years and expired on March 16, 2018. EU manufacturers can apply for review 3 months before the expiration date. In accordance with the procedures of the European Union, the review request must be submitted in writing and must contain sufficient evidence that the removal of double taxation may lead to continued or recurring anti-dumping and countervailing and possible damage, and may continue to face taxation after review.

At present, the anti-dumping duty rate of the EU organic coating plate is 5.9% -26.1% and the countervailing duty rate is 13.7% -44.7%.

In recent days, the potential for titanium dioxide to lead to “murder” hot things extraordinary.

Defendant: Titanium Dioxide

Titanium dioxide known as titanium dioxide, the molecular formula of TiO2, is a polycrystalline compound, the particles were arranged in a regular manner, with a lattice structure. With excellent optical, electrical properties, the best opacity, whiteness, brightness, the world recognized as the best performance of a white pigment.

The defendant:

According to the ECHA Risk Assessment Board (RAC), available scientific evidence suggests that the carcinogenic potential of titanium dioxide meets the relevant criteria for ECHA under the Classification, Labeling and Packaging Regulations (CLP).

On June 9, 2017, the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) announced that it has formally proposed the inclusion of titanium dioxide (TiO2, titanium dioxide) in suspicion of inhalation of substances that may cause cancer, which will be published later The program was announced or formally adopted at the September meeting of the European Commission.

The seriousness of the matter:

Titanium dioxide is widely used in papermaking, paint coatings, cosmetics, plastics and other fields, of which more than half of the paint market. In 2016, the paint and coatings industry accounted for 57.4% of the global titanium dioxide industry sales. The use of titanium dioxide can greatly reduce the amount of paint in the paint, while the paint is made of colorful, not yellowing, light, heat, wear, weather, alkali, sulfur, resistant to acid. Titanium dioxide consumption accounted for more than 90% of the total paint pigment, accounting for more than 95% of paint with white pigment. In the paint raw material costs accounted for 10% to 25%.

According to the latest market research, due to the growing demand in the fields of papermaking, paint and coatings, cosmetics and plastics, it is expected that the global market price of titanium dioxide will reach US $ 27.99 billion by 2024.

Titanium dioxide plays a decisive role, involving deep, once the implementation of a huge impact.

Orthodox view: Titanium dioxide has the potential to lead to “murder”, requiring inclusion of suspected substances that may cause cancer by inhalation.

Square representative:

1. The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA): According to the ECHA Risk Assessment Committee (RAC), available scientific evidence suggests that the carcinogenic potential of titanium dioxide is consistent with ECHA’s relevance under the Classification, Labeling and Packaging Regulations (CLP) standard.

2. France: The Harmonized Classification and Labeling Proposal (CLH) was submitted in May 2016, which required the definition of titanium dioxide from the classification and labeling as “substances that are potentially carcinogenic to human body when inhaled” and asked to classify them as Category 1B, H350i classes in Carc carcinogenicity (carcinogenicity, inhalation) are classified as fine particles and nanometers in titanium dioxide and are not distinguishable in morphology, crystalline phase and surface treatment.

Opposition point of view: ECHA comments based on the defective, for the assessment of any harm to titanium dioxide should be based on science.

Anti-representative:

1. British Coatings Federation (BCF) and CEPE (European Paint, Ink and Art Pigment Industry Association): ECHA cited tests on rats using unrealistically large doses of titanium dioxide, which is not in the general production environment Allowed.

Titanium dioxide as the powder form of titanium dioxide, the finished product obtained after processing has no risk to the consumer, because once embedded into the finished product, the use of paint, paint, printing ink or wallpaper products, consumers and professionals will not be exposed In the form of powder titanium dioxide environment.

2. American Paint Association (ACA): The basis of the opinion is flawed and there is no valid evidence against human risk. In addition, it should also be taken into account that the relevant risks do not apply to products prepared with titanium dioxide, such as coatings, where titanium dioxide has been embedded in the mixture.

Any assessment of titanium dioxide damage, should be based on the scientific. It is not necessary for the EU to classify titanium dioxide as a carcinogen and may unnecessarily limit or even eliminate certain products in certain international trade.

3. Canadian Association of Paint and Coatings (CPCA): Nearly 3,000 scientific research and tests have been supported and are considered to be flawed. CPCA reports that the CLP process is an ongoing regulatory program that classifies hazardous substances in the EU product range, which will affect the labeling, use restrictions and worker protection of these substances, but this time the CLP classification The focus is on any risk due to exposure to dust, rather than exposure to recipes (including paints and coatings), where titanium dioxide is already in the mixture and therefore does not cause harm.

Edit:

Titanium dioxide is widely used, the impact is very wide, the evaluation of its harm should be based on the scientific basis.

First, the experiment cited doubt. ECHA cited tests on rats using unrealistically high doses of titanium dioxide, which is not allowed in a general production environment. What is the degree of inhalation? If it is a long time inhalation, how long this time? Allegations are made only to cause cancer after inhalation. Is potential, and may not be fully confirmed.

Second, titanium dioxide will be inhaled in powder form, but its application to paint, paint, printing ink or wallpaper products and other products, will not be exposed to the powder form of the environment, it is not a hazard.

Moreover, titanium dioxide itself is non-toxic harmless, titanium dioxide is innocent. Nature, there are many minerals, such as quartz, quartz itself is non-toxic, but inhalation of the lungs will lead to silicosis; asbestos itself is also no poison, its greatest harm from its dust, when these small dust is inhaled In the body, it will be attached and deposited in the lungs, causing lung disease; diamond with hydrophobic lipophilic characteristics, when people take under the diamond powder, the diamond powder will stick to the stomach, in the long-term friction, will make people Get stomach ulcers, not timely treatment will die from stomach bleeding. Although many minerals are potentially harmful, they can not deny their use.

Titanium dioxide through the inhalation may cause cancer this thing can not be fully confirmed, whether true or false, companies should pass the matter, caused by dust, dust attaches great importance to the safety and production, the need to protect workers.

June 12, the domestic part of the styrene production enterprises originating in South Korea’s styrene supply of anti-dumping applications by the Ministry of Commerce to accept and carry out the relevant investigation. It is reported that some of the domestic enterprises have received the relevant questionnaires.

Since the accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in China in 2001, China has adopted a five-year concession process for the tariffs on styrene and the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (also known as the Bangkok Agreement). By 2012, the MFN tariffs %, Manchester United tax rate to 1.4%, and thus stabilized. As a beneficiary of the Manchester United tariff, the origin of the styrene origin in Korea to enjoy the 1.4% preferential tax.

Thanks to its geographical advantage and preferential terms, the Republic of Korea has been the largest exporter of styrene in China. According to Zhuo record statistics, 2012-2016 years, the number of imports from South Korea are more than 1 million tons of supply. The current total production capacity of styrene in the Republic of Korea in 4.04 million tons, of which SKG annual output of 350,000 tons of equipment since 2014 long-term parking, thus, even if the exclusion of equipment within the plan, the maintenance factor, assuming that the Korean region full year , According to the 2012-2016 customs import data, the Chinese market supply of raw materials accounted for the proportion of its annual output as high as 29.8% -37.9%. Thus, once the anti-dumping is established, the impact of South Korea’s supply is self-evident.

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Source country statistics

The impact of the Chinese market is minimal On the one hand, in recent years, the domestic new device bulk launched, by the end of 2016, the supply of self-sufficiency rate has been raised to about 63%, and the next three years, the domestic styrene plant is to maintain high-speed expansion; the other hand, the Middle East, the United States Supply can completely make up the supply gap.

Once the South Korean supply cost advantage is no longer, then the United States, the Middle East styrene production enterprises will become a direct beneficiary. After all, China’s huge demand for the market, but also they dream of.