The third quarter is the peak season of traditional demand for asphalt. The willingness to store up downstream goods is enhanced, and the refinery sales situation is good. In addition, the international oil price shocks and strengthens, and the asphalt price continues to rise. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price on July 9 was 2475 yuan / ton, which was 5.32% higher than that on July 1.

In the first ten days of July, the southern region is still in the plum rain season, and the rainfall in East China, South China and other southern regions is still relatively large, and there are floods in many places, and the demand for asphalt terminal is low. However, the Meiyu season officially ended in southern China on July 9. The peak demand season of terminal market is still expected, and the mid and lower reaches have a strong desire to store goods. In Shandong and East China, there was a cumulative stock of asphalt, with the social inventory rate of 65-70%, which was 2-3% higher than last week, while the social inventory rate in South China was 61%, down 2% compared with last week. Asphalt stock demand is the main reason to boost the market price of asphalt.

The domestic production in June was 2.7859 million tons, and the domestic asphalt production plan in July was 2.98 million tons, both the highest levels in the same period of history. This week, the domestic asphalt operating rate is 64%, and the higher level is also at a higher level. However, the total inventory rate of refinery asphalt is 24%, and the inventory rate of refinery in Shandong area of North China is about 15%. Refinery asphalt inventory pressure is small, shipment is smooth, refinery asphalt prices continue to increase sales.

OPEC + countries are determined to reduce production. Saudi Arabia and others have raised crude oil prices, boosting the international crude oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.15% and 4.89% respectively in the first ten days of July. Domestic asphalt market price to cost support.

Business agency analysts believe that the southern region continued to rain weather, terminal asphalt demand to be restored. After this round of small increase in asphalt market price, it is expected that the asphalt price will fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price in the first ten days of July rebounded to its original position after going down, with the price at the beginning of ten days at 6866 yuan / ton; at the end of ten days, the price was 6892 yuan / ton; on July 4 and 5, the ten day low price was 6636 yuan / ton, with a ten day increase of 0.38% and a ten day amplitude of 3.86%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a relatively high level at the beginning of the month, and then continuously decreased. After going down 200-250 yuan / ton, the price began to fall back on the 6th, and it has risen by about 250 yuan / ton on the 9th. Today’s price is roughly flat. The market transaction is between 6810 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton, which is still in the high range, and the inventory backlog is not obvious.

On July 9, crude oil prices fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

Recently, PP futures market is weak, but the late ten day PP spot pull up significantly, ten day increase of 3.20%, may have a positive impact on propylene.

In the early ten days, the market of acrylic acid has been stable in the early stage, and dropped sharply at the end of ten days, with a drop of 5.63%, which has a negative impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, the propylene oxide market rebounded after a shock and decline, with a ten day drop of 0.67% and a ten day amplitude of 2.01%.

The price of epichlorohydrin in the first ten days dropped significantly after the shock, with a drop of 6.39% in ten days and an amplitude of 8.72% in ten days.

In the first ten days, the domestic price of n-butanol was generally stable, with a slight upward trend, with a ten day increase of 0.28% and a ten day amplitude of 0.84%.

Octyl alcohol market in the first ten days was also stable and then went down, with a sharp decline at the end of ten days, with a drop of 3.10%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, isopropanol market also showed a significant decline, with a drop of 8.62%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

In the first ten days of East China, phenol continued to decline, with a drop of 14.43%, which had a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

In the first ten days of East China acetone, similar to phenol, also showed a continuous downward trend, with a drop of 14.57% in ten days, which also had a greater suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the crude oil price is slightly downward, the polypropylene futures market is general, and the overall downstream market operating rate is still good, but most of the downstream prices have been reduced, the profit margin is weakened, and the propylene growth has reached the early range high, and the upward pressure is under pressure, so the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected to be close The daily propylene price may continue to be stable, which does not rule out the possibility of another downward trend on weekends.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4433 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, down 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, is quoted at 4000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Paraformaldehyde is still stable.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, methanol is mainly operated in a narrow range in the near future, which is unfavorable to the price of paraformaldehyde; the downstream demand of paraformaldehyde is a traditional off-season in summer, which drags down the market of paraformaldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, business community polyoxymethylene analysts believe: the price will probably go down.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton on July 3, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, and the market has been running smoothly in the near future.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market was stable and weak, and the export was not good. In addition, the domestic market gradually entered the off-season, some downstream enterprises reduced their load operation, and the demand side was weak. At the same time, the price of raw material phenol fell, and the price of salicylic acid remained stable as a whole, and some of them were slightly reduced with little change. As of July 3, the price of industrial grade salicylic acid of Zhenjiang MaoYuan Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 15000 yuan / ton, that of pharmaceutical grade was 24000 yuan / ton, and that of sublimation grade was 22000 yuan / ton. The price of industrial grade salicylic acid is about 14000 yuan / ton, that of pharmaceutical grade is 29000 yuan / ton, and that of sublimation grade is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin is about 15000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of sublimation grade is about 18000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

The upstream phenol market continued to decline. In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, from the late July, the operating rate is expected to rise, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is looking at the low buying gas, the industry is not prosperous, and the factory start-up is also gradually declining. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the demand side is hard to say good, and the supply side is full of bad news. The phenol Market is expected to be 6400-6800 yuan / ton in July.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that: the recent cost side price has fallen, the superposition of off-season demand is poor, the trading is general, some specifications of salicylic acid are slightly reduced, and the trend of salicylic acid is expected to continue to be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in Shandong was 4400 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4500 yuan / ton in Nanjing on June 1, and 4300 yuan / ton in Shandong and 4500 yuan / ton in Nanjing on June 30, a decrease of 1.5% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of raw materials, the listed price of pure benzene on June 1 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3600 yuan / ton), and on June 30, it was 3120-3500 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3330 yuan / ton), which was 270 yuan / ton lower than that on June 1, with a decrease of 7.5% this month. In the first ten days of this month, the rising trend of pure benzene continued last month, and the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises also increased. Thanks to the gradual improvement of the macro-economic situation, the crude oil market has repeatedly received good news. Driven by the rising cost, pure benzene, as a direct related product of crude oil downstream, also rose. The operating rate increased, supply increased, and port inventory continued to rise since March, resulting in weak pure benzene Market in the middle of the year. Due to the inventory in the late ten days of the port, as well as the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Downstream market is generally weak, styrene, aniline loss, thus the purchase of pure benzene is also weak. Under the condition of oversupply, the price of pure benzene fell all the way.

Nitric acid rose slightly in June, and the price stabilized after rising 16.67 yuan / ton on June 9. On June 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1433.33 yuan / ton and 1450 yuan / ton on June 30, up 16.67 yuan / ton or 1.16% this month.

This month, aniline fluctuated and fell, the overall price fluctuation was not big, and the operation was mainly based on big stability and small movement. Affected by the cost in the middle of the year, aniline in Shandong Province rose by 100 yuan / ton; in the last ten days, the cost dropped, combined with the pressure of inventory, the aniline in Shandong Province decreased by 200 yuan / ton. At present, aniline theoretical profit loss.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the atmosphere in the downstream market is weak, the inventory is overstocked due to the high opening rate of petrochemical industry, and the port inventory remains high. It is difficult to change the short-term oversupply situation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will break through difficulties in July.

Aniline is in a loss state, and the downstream demand is low, enterprises take the strategy of reducing the price. In addition, it is difficult to change the cost in the short term. It is estimated that the aniline price in July will be mainly stable, and it is difficult to have a significant fall.