This week (3.31-4.3), the polyester bottle chip market showed a high-level oscillation, initially suppressed and then rising trend, with the core being driven by cost, tight supply, and cautious demand. As of April 3rd, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the weekly average price of East China water bottle grade spot goods is 8780 yuan/ton; At the beginning of the week, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in oil prices, the price dropped from around 8800 yuan/ton to 8600-8650 yuan/ton. The week was dominated by low positions and downstream demand small orders. Starting from Thursday, the price rebounded due to the maintenance of PTA major factories and the strengthening of the basis. On Friday, the mainstream price was reported at 8700-8750 yuan/ton, mainly supported by strong costs, tight supply, and cautious demand games.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side: Geopolitics+oil prices, strong support
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and international crude oil is fluctuating at high levels (around Brent $118/barrel)
PTA major factory maintenance, strengthening foundation, and rising raw material costs
The production cost of bottle slices is about 7509 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 443 yuan/ton, and there is still profit
2. Supply side: Low production and tight spot availability
Industry operating rate of 71.7% (slightly increased month on month)
Large factories are controlling their sales volume and reducing contract goods, resulting in low social inventory for six months
Lack of spot circulation, difficulty in obtaining goods, and strengthening basis
3. Demand side: Expected peak season, but high price suppression
Domestic: Beverage peak season stocking has started, but high prices suppress procurement, downstream orders are made on demand to digest inventory
• Exports: 430000 tons exported in February (month on month -15.39%), but still increased year-on-year, supported by overseas inventory replenishment
3、 Future prospects
1、 Short term (1-3 weeks): Strong fluctuations at high levels, peak season surges
Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) shows an upward trend, while the medium-term moving average (20 days) shows a downward trend. Currently, there are signs of the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.
Location characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range, the 20 day moving average is at the middle level (3 points) in the 5th range, and the 30 day moving average is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range.
Core judgment: Strong consolidation in the range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton, with a potential short-term impact of 9200 yuan/ton.
Risk points: significant drop in oil prices, intensified resistance to downstream high prices, and slowdown in procurement.
（2） Mid term (1-3 months): fluctuating and falling back, gradually returning to a rational range
Location characteristics: The current price is in a one-year super high state, with a premium of 20% compared to the median value of 7355 yuan/ton and a premium of 43.1% compared to the average value of 6168.75 yuan/ton. The position is consistently low, and the pressure of high-level correction continues to accumulate;
Trend characteristics:
New production capacity release: Approximately 1.35 million tons will be added in 2026, with concentrated production in the second half of the year and loose supply.
• End of peak season: Beverage demand weakened by the end of Q3, and downstream entered the destocking stage.
Cost loosening: PX will increase production capacity by the end of the year, PTA processing fees will be repaired, and cost support will be weakened.
Supply and demand shift: from tight balance to weak balance/slight easing.
Core judgment: The price gradually falls back to 8000-8600 yuan/ton, and the average price has decreased compared to the first half of the year.
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