According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 16405 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 0.28% compared to the lead price of 16360 yuan/ton on March 23rd.
This week’s market analysis
The domestic lead market has shown a stable trend of narrow range strong oscillation and a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Shanghai lead futures and spot prices have risen moderately in sync, without experiencing severe fluctuations. The core of the market is driven by four factors: rigid raw material costs, tight supply of recycled lead, depletion of social inventory, and downstream demand replenishment. The overall situation is in a balance of long and short positions with strong bottom support.
raw material end
Primary lead: tight supply of lead concentrate, low inverted processing fees
Domestic lead concentrate TC (processing fee) 250 yuan/metal ton, imported TC -135~-145 US dollars/dry ton, continuously inverted. The resumption of production in domestic mines is slow, and imported mines are affected by Australian shipments and geopolitical disturbances, resulting in an overall tight mining situation. The raw material procurement of the smelting plant is cautious, with a focus on replenishing inventory for urgent needs and no large-scale reserve inventory, resulting in rigid cost support.
Recycled lead: The price of waste batteries remains strong, but smelting is experiencing deep losses
Recycled lead refining enterprises generally suffer from deep losses (about -800 yuan/ton or more), with operating rates of only 30% -40%, and many places have reduced or stopped production. The contraction of recycled lead production and the decrease in spot circulation have become important bottom support for lead prices.
Supply and demand side
Native stability, weak regeneration, overall tightness. Primary lead, Yunnan and Hunan refineries are gradually resuming production, but the operating rate is only 60% -65%, and the output is moderately recovering. Regenerated lead: Loss restricts resumption of production, with a weekly operating rate of 39.57% and limited supply increment. Social inventory has slightly decreased from high levels, factory inventory is low, and spot circulation is tight. Smelters are reluctant to sell at low prices and have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in a rapid decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
The demand for batteries remains stable, with a mild recovery during peak seasons. The operating rate of downstream lead-acid batteries is 73% -74%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. Procurement mode: small order, urgent need, on-demand purchase, fear of high but not absent, no centralized replenishment, limited price increase.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term lead price maintains a strong range of fluctuations, with limited downward space and restricted upward height. Focus on the production of recycled lead and the price of waste batteries: if losses improve, supply will rebound and lead prices will come under pressure; Conversely, it tends to be stronger.
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